You're reading: Ukraine’s GDP growth could reach 2.5% in 2013, says Dragon Capital head

The fall of the Ukrainian economy in the fourth quarter of 2012 will reach 1.3%, although in 2013 Ukrainians can anticipate that GDP growth will total 2-2.5% mainly thanks to growth in industry and agriculture, Dragon Capital CEO Tomas Fiala has said. 

The fall [in GDP] in the first quarter came to some 1.3% and the same figure could be seen in the fourth quarter. It’s likely that the first two quarters [of 2013] will be negative due to the higher comparative base. We project that in the first half of 2013 the negative growth of 1-1.5% and the improvement in the second half of 2013 will be seen, as growth in foreign demand on our goods and the lower comparative base, which will give growth to the economy as a whole by 2-2.5% next year, is anticipated,” Fiala told reporters on Thursday.

He said that next year the fall in the construction sector and industry will slow.

“I think that next year agriculture will show growth, as gross harvest will be larger, according to our estimates. We do not expect that the large fall in the construction sector and industry will be registered: our experts predict that industrial growth will be 3% and growth in agriculture will also 3%,” Fiala said.

As reported, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP in the third quarter of 2012 shrank by 1.3% year-over-year, while in the first quarter it grew by 2% and in the second it rose by 3%.

The volume of construction in Ukraine in January-November 2012 fell by 12.1% year-on-year, while in the first 10 months the decline was 10.2%, and the last growth was seen over the first five months of the year, at 0.3%.

Production of agricultural products in Ukraine in January-November 2012 contracted by 4.8% year-over-year.

Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2012 declined by 3.7% from November 2011, against the 4.2% decline registered in October 2012 and the 7% decline registered in September 2012.

The volume of retail goods turnover at retail trade and restaurant businesses in comparative prices in Ukraine in January-November 2012 grew by 15.7% year-over-year.