You're reading: 2015 at war: A phantom truce, less death and more uncertainty

While last year was one of staged “uprisings” led by Russian special forces, followed by full-blown war in eastern Ukraine, 2015 was one of unpredictable skirmishes, a truce that never took hold and the painful realization that this war will not be over soon.

In fact, over the last year, Russia’s low-intensity war against the Donbas has shown more signs of becoming a frozen conflict that could last for years or decades.
Following are the main developments in the war zone in 2015:

Loss of Donetsk airport
In January, Ukrainian troops lost control of the embattled (and ruined) Donetsk airport after having grimly defended it for nine months. Ukrainian forces said regular Russian troops had been used in the battles. Kyiv also accused the Russian-separatist forces of using grenades with nerve agents – a prohibited means of warfare. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or captured in fierce fighting in the wrecked airport, and the dead bodies of Ukrainian “cyborgs,” as Russian-separatist forces respectfully called them, continue to be uncovered in the ruins.

Attacks in many cities
The nation was shocked by a series of attacks against civilians in January-February. Thirteen civilians were killed and 18 wounded on Jan. 13 when a minibus was shelled by Grad rockets at a government-controlled checkpoint near the town of Volnovakha. Nine days later, eight civilians were killed and 13 wounded in Donetsk, when artillery shells struck a bus stop and trolleybus. Ukrainian troops and separatists blamed each other, but more attacks followed.

On Jan. 24, 30 civilians were killed and over 90 wounded in Mariupol after the eastern parts of the city came under intense shelling. The shells came from areas controlled by Russian troops and their separatist proxies, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which monitors the war zone in Ukraine. On Feb. 10, 17 civilians were killed and 64 wounded in Kramatorsk after a Ukrainian military airfield and several city districts were shelled by a Tornado rocket system, a more powerful version of the Grad system.

The Minsk II peace deal
On Feb. 5, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande arrived in Kyiv with a peace plan. The impetus for their visit was a letter sent by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Merkel and Hollande. A day later, European leaders arrived in Moscow for talks with Putin, which were followed by 16 hours of negotiations in Minsk. The talks resulted in a new, 13-clause peace agreement known as Minsk II. It has failed to take hold, while more than 9,100 people have been killed, and more than 1.2 million people displaced since April 2014.

Debaltseve retreat
At midnight on Feb. 15, Ukraine held its breath while waiting to see if a new cease-fire would take root.

It didn’t.

While shelling stopped along most of the war front in Debaltseve, where some 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers were in a tense standoff with Kremlin-backed separatists, the firing continued. Intense fighting ensued for the strategically important railroad junction, but after a few days, Ukrainian soldiers retreated, including from neighboring villages, after being encircled by enemy forces. Official reports said dozens of Ukrainian soldiers were killed, while many on the ground said losses were closer to a hundred.

Ukrainian officials said thousands of Russian regular troops had been involved in the battle for Debaltseve, and many reports by foreign media, including two Russian newspapers, backed up this account.

The Maryinka assault
Ukrainian soldiers feared a repeat of Debaltseve on June 3, when the town of Maryinka, which lies about 10 kilometers west of Donetsk, was surrounded by Russian-backed forces. Ukrainian positions in the town were shelled and fired on with Grad rockets in the most intense fighting since Debaltseve and the Feb. 15 truce. Ukrainian troops on the ground expressed shock and confusion, saying “all of Maryinka is on fire.”

However, Ukrainian forces managed to retake their positions and fight off an offensive, although dozens were wounded in the fighting.

Ukrainian soldiers later said the attack was most likely a provocation to test Ukraine’s fighting capacity.

Attack near Mariupol
Four were killed and seven wounded in an attack by Russian forces on Aug. 16. The town of Sartana, near Mariupol, came under shelling, leaving two children orphaned and one of them without a leg. Though Sartana had frequently found itself in the line of fire, this attack sent shockwaves through the community and proved to be a breaking point, with residents so fed up by the constant fighting that they expressed anger at both sides – Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed armed groups.

Fatigue, low morale
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are preparing to celebrate their second winter holidays at war. While the shelling is less frequent, danger is still high. Attacks by Russian-separatist forces, landmines and sporadic firefights claim several lives almost every week. Some soldiers want permission to attack or fire back. Many feel frustrated with inaction by the government in Kyiv. Most believe the war will go on for years.