ALMATY - GDP growth in Kazakhstan will slow to 3.8% in 2012 and inflation will drop to 6.5%, Russia's Center for Development projects in a long-term forecast for the economies of Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan that was commissioned by the Russian Economic Development Ministry.
Annual inflation will average 7% in the period from 2013 to 2016 and
7.2% in 2017-2020, while average annual economic growth will accelerate
to 5.1% and then slow to 4.8%, respectively, the center forecasts.
The country’s economic growth depends in large part on the growth of oil production.
The Kazakh tenge’s weighted average exchange rate against the U.S.
dollar will be KZT149.10/$1 this year, but slip to KZT153-154/$1 in
2013-2020, the center projects.
The center forecasts that budget revenues will slip to 19.1% of GDP in 2017-2020 from 19.4% in 2013-2016 and 19.6% in 2012.
The foreign trade balance is expected to remain in surplus, but it is
forecast to shrink from $43.7 billion in 2012 to an annual average of
$31.5 billion in 2013-2016 and $30.1 billion in 2017-2020.
Constraining factors for long-term economic growth in Kazakhstan, the
center reckons, include slow growth in oil production and exports and
oil prices, weak diversification of the economy, and the continued
substantial share of the household sector in GDP, at more than 23% (not
including oil exports) over the past seven years.
Kazakhstan’s Economic Development and Trade Ministry is forecasting
economic growth of 6% in 2012, with industrial production forecast to
increase by 3.9%. The inflation target is 6-8%.
Kazakhstan’s GDP grew 7.5% in 2011, industrial production rose by 3.5%, and inflation was 7.4%.
