You're reading: NATO’s Turkey stands up to Russia’s Putin

When news broke on Nov. 24 that NATO member Turkey had shot down a Russian warplane, social media erupted with the #WWIII hashtag and pundits frantically predicted dire consequences.


But as the
week wore on, the international incident has merely led to some frenzied
saber-rattling by Russia, as well as a flurry of airstrikes on Syria’s border
with Turkey near the area where the Russian Su-24 was shot down, leaving one
pilot killed and another wounded.

Experts say
that while the incident will not trigger World War III, it will shake up the
geopolitical situation for a long time to come. The Kremlin’s Vladimir Putin
may go to great lengths to preserve his nation’s reputation as a fierce,
powerful nation ready to fight.

“This will
affect Ukraine in some way because this was not only a direct challenge to
Putin’s reputation, but also a challenge to global security. This is the first
time someone has responded so strongly to Putin’s aggression, and it just so
happens to be a country with which Russia has very close economic relations,”
said political analyst Vitali Kulyk.

“Russia
does not yet have a concrete plan for how to respond,” he said, beyond lashing
out in every sphere possible.

“The
Russian media has already begun with its anti-Turkish hysteria. I wouldn’t rule
out the possibility that we will all soon become witnesses to an aggravated
situation in the South Caucasus,” Kulyk said, where Russian authorities may try
to make things difficult for Turkey to achieve any sort of cooperation.

All in all,
he said, this would likely trigger much more Russian aggression – and this is
“only the beginning” of that.

Ukrainian
military expert Vyacheslav Tseluiko said the situation had “complicated
Russia’s position on the world stage” and would likely make it harder for the
Kremlin to win back the West.

Meanwhile,
Russia and Turkey have given drastically different accounts of what occurred
when the plane was shot down.

Turkish
authorities said the pilots had been warned repeatedly to get out of Turkish
airspace after invading it several times, though the warnings were not obeyed,
and one plane was subsequently shot down. Russia, on the other hand, claims the
plane was never in Turkish airspace, and the surviving Russian pilot on Nov. 25
told state-run media he’d never gotten any warnings and had never entered
Turkish airspace to begin with.

Using that
argument, the Kremlin is portraying the incident as nothing short of a
terrorist attack.

Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the incident had been a “planned
provocation” by Turkey, and Putin went even further by describing Turkish
authorities as “the accomplices of terrorists.”

“Do they
want to put NATO at the service of the Islamic State?” he asked, sending a
clear signal to the international community that he regarded this incident as
part of the international fight against terrorism – and that Russia was the
victim.

The problem
for Putin is that Russia has a track record of invading Turkey’s airspace and
ignoring warnings. What Putin has described as a “stab in the back,” many
others would call karma, or inevitable.

In early
October, Turkey’s military scrambled fighter jets after a Russian fighter plane
entered its airspace and got a bit too close to Turkish planes patrolling the
border with Syria.

At that
time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that his country could not
put up with such intimidation tactics, and NATO Secretary-General Jens
Stoltenberg noted that the Russian incursions “did not look like an accident.”

But
ordinary Russians sided with their leaders this time around, and Russia turned
against Turkey in every sphere imaginable: Russian tour operators canceled all
trips to Turkey, Russia’s customs service began refusing entry to Turkish
products, the country’s health watchdog banned imports of Turkish foods for
their “unsanitary” nature.

A mob of
angry protesters attacked the Turkish embassy in Moscow, and Russia’s state-run
media, in the blink of an eye, made Turkey its new enemy No. 1, replacing
Ukraine completely.

Prominent
figures even began calling for people to vacation in Crimea rather than Turkey
from now on.

“It’s
better to vacation in Crimea than in Turkey,” VTB bank head Andrei Kostin told
Russia media on Nov. 25.

Oddly,
Kostin made no mention of the fact that the Russian-occupied peninsula had next
to no electricity after unknown saboteurs blew up power lines to finally sever
Ukraine’s energy links with the occupied territory.

That move
was the second instance of someone standing up to Putin in the past week.

Human
rights activist Halya Coynash told the Kyiv Post that a Ukrainian blockade of
the peninsula had apparently triggered more visits by Russia’s Federal Security
Service to the relatives of Crimean Tatar leaders.

While she
expressed uncertainty about whether Russia would target Crimean Tatars to take
revenge on Turkey, she said it couldn’t be ruled out.

“I doubt if
it would be as direct as hate Turkey, attack Crimean Tatars. On the other hand,
they’re already pushing all kinds of lies about Crimean Tatars recruiting for
ISIS. Since (Kremlin spokesman Dmitry) Peskov has apparently just waffled about
‘not excluding’ a terrorist threat from Turkey, then I’d probably expect that
line to be pushed even more strongly (in connection with the Crimean Tatars),”
Coynash said.

Turkey has
expressed support for the Crimean Tatars and had condemned Russia’s annexation
of the peninsula from the get-go. It also spoke out against Russia’s bombing of
Turkmen fighters near the border with Syria in recent weeks. Now that Russia
has increased airstrikes in that area, it seems the chances of success for an
international coalition to fight ISIS are quite low.

Dmitry
Gorenburg of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies
told the Kyiv Post that a great deal will depend on “how he (Putin) plays it
and how the rest of the world reacts.”

“My
impression is that most of the international community, including both leaders
and analysts, see the downing as an overreaction by Turkey,” Gorenburg said.
“Erdogan has not made many friends in recent years, and his international image
is only a little better than Putin’s.”

Russia has
spun the incident as being tied directly to terrorism, the one area where the
Kremlin has been able to bond with the West after the attacks on Paris on Nov.
13.

French
President Francois Hollande – who has called for the lifting of sanctions
against Russia – was due to meet with Putin on Nov. 26 for talks on closer
cooperation in Syria.

The U.S.
has also appeared to be warming up to Russia lately.

On Nov. 25,
the U.S. Department of State partially lifted sanctions against
Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state weapons exporter, for the service of Mi-17
helicopters in Afghanistan “for the purpose of combating terrorism and violent
extremism globally.”

It perhaps
comes as no surprise then that Western leaders’ reactions to the Turkey
incident were quite restrained. U.S. President Barack Obama said Turkey was
“within its rights to defend its airspace,” but he stopped short of blaming or
criticizing Russia.

NATO chief
Stoltenberg was equally restrained, expressing support for Turkey but calling
for calm above all else.

Some saw
the West’s response as a sign that the international community simply wasn’t
ready to stand up to the Kremlin.

“Russia’s
generally shallow response to Turkey’s downing of a Russian bomber jet reveals
that, indeed, Putin is taken aback when confronted with resolution and
boldness. Deep in his heart, Putin is a coward; shame that the West seems to be
even worse than this,” Anton Shekhovtsov of the Legatum Institute wrote on
Facebook.

Staff
writer Allison Quinn can be reached at [email protected]