An all-star panel of veteran American politicians and political advisers gathered at the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv on Sept 16 to discuss the US presidential race.
Over an aptly named “American lunch,” guests
were treated to a half-Republican, half-Democratic debate on the state of
America, the unlikely success of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee and
what the outcome of the elections could mean for those countries that look
towards the U.S. for leadership.
Republicans were represented by Newt Gingrich, the 50th speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives; and Karl Rove, former senior adviser to President George W. Bush.
The Democratic side was held up by
David Axelrod, head of strategy and adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2011, and
Barney Frank, a member of Congress from 1981 to 2013.
Only Gingrich defended Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. As Frank put it, Gingrich tried gave a “rationale” to the
irrational remarks of Trump because he cannot defend what Trump says. Rove avoided endorsing either candidate. Axelrod
said both candidates were more unpopular than popular.
“I wouldn’t want to bet on the outcome,”
said Rove, who also pointed out that though individual polls had been wrong
about the primaries, on aggregate: “that’s what we got.”
There was a tacit agreement that Trump’s
nomination is due to the American people’s disillusionment with the current
political elites.
“This isn’t just short term news in
America,” said Axelrod. “An enormous wrenching change has
produced the opportunities for great progress: technology, globalization, but
has also dislocated – which in the U.S. is very evident – large numbers of people who
have lost middle-class jobs and they don’t have something to replace it.”
Frank and Axelrod said the elections would
be won on the upcoming debates between now and the Nov. 8 election. Frank said Clinton’s pneumonia means expectations will be lower and
therefore she could make up for lost ground. Axelrod likened Trump’s
chances of winning in the debates to a “dancing bear,” saying that if
he comes off will count for more because expectations are so low.
“When a bear dances people don’t say: ‘Gee he doesn’t dance very well. They say boy that bear can dance,” said
Axelrod.
By far the main topic on everyone’s mind
was the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations, and perhaps even Ukraine itself, if
Trump wins the election. Trump has been widely viewed as cozying up to Russian
President Vladimir Putin, making excuses and even supporting Russia’s policies
of aggression in Ukraine. Most recently Trump said if elected he would
recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Gingrich skirted direct questions about
whether to take Trump’s remarks seriously, saying he “will be much tougher
in the world but he will be asking, is it in America’s interest?”
Rove said Trump’s success in general will
be dependent on the people he puts in his cabinet, noting Trump had the
“capacity to be successful.”
Frank said he was “frightened”
by the prospect of Trump presidency: “If he gets elected it’s a license
for Putin to be more aggressive with his neighbors.”
Axelrod said focus groups are worried that Clinton represents the status quo, but, with Trump, people are worried about “nuclear war” because of his volatility.
Ukraine’s former finance minister, American native Natalie Jaresko, said the dialogue is characterized by racism, xenophobia and threatening allies. Jaresko said
that the “post-World War II international liberal order is at risk” and that
“the U.S. has to provide leadership.” She also added that acceptance of
a violent change of a European border was “unacceptable,” referring
to Trump.
Gingrich rebuffed accusations that Trump
was xenophobic by pointing out that Trump’s wife was European.
“I hope that Donald Trump happily
married to his European-immigrant wife, but what that got to do with Mr. Putin
entirely escapes me,” said Frank in closing remarks.
