You're reading: Crimea blackout intensifies war with Russia

Most of the lights are out in Russian-occupied Crimea, but billboards bearing the face of President Vladimir Putin are still illuminated.

The deliberate blackout, caused on Nov. 21
when saboteurs destroyed pylons carrying electricity from the mainland to the
peninsula, has left more than half of Crimea’s two million people without
power.

The sabotage — which many suspect had the
acquiescence of Ukraine’s government — is coupled with a tough trade embargo
from the mainland to the “temporarily occupied” territory, as
President Petro Poroshenko puts it.

But if the aim is to force Russia to
capitulate and return Crimea, the moves may backfire and simply accelerate the severing of ties
between Ukraine and the peninsula, which Russia militarily invaded in February
2014.

“I believe this incident could serve as the
catalyst for Ukrainian authorities to make decisions that are vital for the
country on what relations will be with Russia and Crimea in the future,” said
Vitaly Bala
of the Situations
Modeling Agency.

Ukraine may be
moving to finally cut all ties with Crimea as it continues to appeal for
international support.

“A year and a half after the annexation, we’ve
heard a lot of loud statements about international courts,” said Bala.

But Bala said Ukraine has been sending mixed
signals, talking tough while last year
parliament approved a free trade zone with Crimea.

“The inaction and unclear position of the
authorities on Crimea” is exactly what paved the way for such “radical actions”
as activists blowing up electricity towers, he said.

While Ukrainian authorities have not detained
any suspects in the downing of two electricity towers in Kherson Oblast over
the weekend, it is widely believed that Ukrainian activists taking part in the
two-month long blockade of Crimea are behind the explosions that left Crimea
cut off.

The blockade of Crimea began as a grassroots
initiative on Sept. 20, with activists declaring that the move would put an end
to the ongoing trade cooperation between Crimea and mainland Ukraine –
cooperation that the Kyiv government itself agreed to, despite Russia’s war in
the east.

Rather than condemning the blockade, Poroshenko
offered support, and on Nov. 23 ordered the Cabinet to draft legislation making
a full blockade official.

Some natives of Crimea expressed relief that
measures had finally been taken.

Tatyana Guchakova, a Crimean journalist who recently
left the peninsula after harassment for her critical reporting, said that prior
to the blockade, many residents of Crimea began to think that Kyiv “had
come to terms with the annexation, and the opportunity to profit off of trade
with the occupiers was more important than actions to return
Crimea.”

But
now, she said, those same people are finally seeing that “there are people
on the mainland who want to get Crimea back.”

Instead of prompting widespread panic on the
peninsula, the blackout seems to have been taken in stride by Russian
authorities and ordinary residents, even as grocery stores are forced to run on
generators, several hospitals have been forced to limit treatment – and Putin
billboards remain the only things lit up on the streets at night, according to
Radio Liberty.

Despite these inconveniences, a street survey
conducted by Radio Liberty in Crimea on Nov. 24 showed most residents
interviewed simply shrugging and saying “we’ll manage.”

Russian officials, likewise, rather than
threatening to make Ukraine pay for the economic blockade and blackout, have
mostly been somewhat restrained in their comments. Russian Energy Minister
Alexander Novak on Nov. 24 complained to Russian state media that Ukraine’s
slow response in fixing the downed power lines was “politically motivated” and
threatened to cut off coal supplies to Ukraine.

The initiators of the economic blockade of
Crimea seem more determined to draw the international community’s attention to
the peninsula than to hit Russia where it hurts.

Crimean leader Refat Chubarov said he hoped
the blackout of Crimea would force leaders to examine the issue of liberating
Crimea at the highest levels, adding that the topic should be on the agenda of
the Trilateral Contact Group of Russia, Ukraine and European leaders who meet
to resolve Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“If for some reason that isn’t possible right
now, then it is necessary to expand the Minsk group and examine the issue of
getting Crimea back,” Chubarov said in an interview with the ICTV television
channel on Nov. 24.

The issue may take on added importance as
winter sets in. While the Kremlin has so far refrained from ordering revenge
against Ukraine for the blackout, some Russian officials have tossed around the
idea of blocking coal supplies.

Dennis Sakva, an energy analyst at Dragon Capital, said Ukraine
currently has enough energy resources “for the time being,” but he warned that
coal supplies were more important.

“The situation with the coal is more
difficult,” he said, adding that Ukraine is dependent on Russian coal, as well
as on the coal from the occupied parts of war-torn Donbas.

Viktor Lohatsky, an energy expert from the Razumkov
Center think tank, voiced the same concern.

In his words, Ukrainian power plants
have at least 2.3 million tons of coal in storage.

“When the temperature is about -15ºC we need 70,000 tons of coal per day. That means our reserves are
enough for at least 35 days. Even if there aren’t anynew deliveries,” he told
the Kyiv Post.

The risks, he said, are that Russia
might order the separatists in Ukraine’s east to stop coal supplies from the
occupied territories.

Another risk, according to Vladimir
Fesenko of the Penta think tank, is that the blackout may only trigger more
repression on the peninsula.

At the same time, if the blackout
goes sour and someone actually freezes to death due to a lack of heat, anti-Ukrainian
sentiment could rise.

“There would be condemnation,
including against Crimean Tatars,” he said.

Even if there are no fatalities from
the blackout, Western leaders may frown on the activists’ tactics and Kyiv’s
implicit support of the actions, which even some Ukrainian officials have
described the incident as a terrorist act.

“God forbid the West should see it
that way too. Then all of our efforts to recognize separatist leaders in
Donetsk and Luhansk as terrorists will have failed. They will say, ‘How can you
consider them terrorists when you have terrorists acting inside your own
country?’” he said.

Kyiv Post staff writer Allison Quinn can be reached at [email protected] and staff writer Alyona Zhuk can be reached at [email protected]