All three exit polls conducted in Ukraine on election day say that Petro Poroshenko received over 55 percent of the vote, enough for a comfortable victory in the first round if the official results come in the same range.
But Ukraine’s analysts say that
Poroshenko should not relax too soon – the rating reflects people’s
desire to end Ukraine’s troubles, and expect the new president to act
as decisively as they have done in the polls.
“It is not Poroshenko’s rating at
all. It is the rating of the hope of people who want this war to be
finished,” says Taras Berezovets, director of Berta, a political consultancy.
Team
Poroshenko brings with him a lot of
impediments to meeting people’s expectations. One of those pointed
out most frequently is an absence of a team.
“Poroshenko’s current team is a
weird combination of the former Kyiv major Leonid Chernovetsky’s
people, Party of Regions and Batkivshchyna Party members,”
Berezovets said. In other words, not a good mix for someone who
campaigned on Living The New Way slogans.
There are fears that the new president
might become a hostage of his team. “His circle may influence him
concerning some appointments in the cabinet of ministers,”
Berezovets said.
Security issues
One of the first issues Poroshenko will
have to address is the security situation in eastern Ukraine, where
people continued to die from the hands of separatists on the election
day. Although Poroshenko declared his first trip as president will be
to the east, it’s not clear what messages he will bring them.
Poroshenko’s unclear position about
NATO is a serious cause for concern, the Berezovets believes. “He
does not want to hold a national referendum concerning accession to
NATO although most Ukrainians want such referendum,” he said.
Poroshenko’s main rival Yulia Tymoshenko, on the other hand,
campaigned vocally for NATO membership.
Russia relations
In his first speech after the polls
closed, Poroshenko said a meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir
Putin will “eventually” take place. Putin has made multiple
statements that he would not recognize the Ukrainian election because
parts of the country are excluded from the vote. So, while Poroshenko
would like to meet with Putin, it seems his desire is not
reciprocated.
“Poroshenko has a strong desire to
resolve the conflict with Moscow and start business cooperation as
soon as possible. But as the president he does not have a right to
talk about some business issues before the question of Crimea is
solved,” Berezovets adds.
Crimea was annexed by Russia in March –
a move that received international condemnation. Also, Russia has
demanded that the nations’ anti-terrorist operation in the east would
stop. But on election night Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said
the operation, on the contrary, will intensify.
Berezovest says Poroshenko has no right
to stop the antiterrorist campaign because it concerns the security
of the whole country.
Economy
Poroshenko’s economic program that he
presented during the campaign was a list of 10 proposals with little
detail. He has said, however, that the Association Agreement with the
European Union is his real presidential program. He said signing the
trade part of it and implementing the whole agreement will be the
priority for his presidency.
Poroshenko also promised to decrease
the number of taxes and their rates, to ban the use of offshore
destinations for Ukrainian companies.
Although the promises might make sense
from the economic point of view, the president has little power to
make these changes. Under the current constitution, the parliament
has the power to decide on legislation, as well as appoint a
government that represents the parliamentary coalition. The
president, on the other hand, is in charge of the law enforcers and
defense, as well as foreign affairs.
Poroshenko, who has no coalition in the
parliament and controls no faction, can hardly influence the
parliament effectively enough for such a law to be voted. As of now,
his only allies in Verkhovna Rada are the members of UDAR faction who
have only 40 voices in parliament.
At the same time, there is at least one
key thing that president can do for the business environment, experts
say.
What the president can do
“If Poroshenko initiates a reform of
the court system, it will be a very positive change for business.
Lack of rule of law is what keeps investors from entering the
market,” says Oleksandr Zholud, economist for Kyiv-based
International Center for Perspective Studies.
If Poroshenko manages to stop the
conflict in Ukraine’s east, it will also remove a significant
obstacle for business.
Decentralization of power is another
reform Poroshenko could pull off to improve the business environment,
according to Zholud. It would bring more money to the regions and
allow the regions to focus on developing certain business clusters
more.
“Election of Poroshenko itself gives
investors a positive signal. But it’s not a critical signal. Until
the conflict in Donbass is stopped, investors will be very careful
about considering working in Ukraine,” said Zholud.
