Ukraine will not be able to avoid a new economic crisis, the scale of which will be larger than in 2008-2009, according to Pavlo Rozenko, a candidate for MP from the UDAR Party.
Among the prerequisites for a future crisis, the former deputy labor and social policy minister named, first and foremost, the country’s slow economic growth and GDP.
“Figures unveiled by the State Statistics Service suggest that GDP growth was 2%, but its real growth was no more than 0.7-1%. This means that the state already has no resources to guarantee social payments. The authorities are not reducing these costs, but they are assuming additional populist commitments, the so-called social initiatives of the president,” Rozenko said.
He said that the second prerequisite for the upcoming crisis was the imaginary stability of the hryvnia, which is achieved by burning the reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine.
“The NBU’s foreign exchange reserves shrank by more than Hr 10 billion over the year, last year they were Hr 39 billion, and today they amounted to Hr 28 billion. So there is every reason to believe that the domestic crisis that will engulf Ukraine is inevitable,” he said.
Rozenko also noted the fundamental difference between the sources and origins of the crisis in 2008 and the current situation. He said that the previous crisis was the result of global European crisis, even global financial crisis, “when almost all markets in the EU, the United States and Japan collapsed almost simultaneously.”
“Today we see a fundamentally different situation. We do not see a large-scale crisis in the world and Europe, and a new crisis will be connected with internal economic processes in Ukraine. That is, it is exclusively the result of the work of the current government and will be the answer of the Ukrainian economy to an unprofessional and populist pre-electoral policy, which is currently being conducted by the current government,” he said.
