The tremors from the Brexit political earthquake were felt 2,138 kilometers away in Kyiv, and the general assessment from Ukrainian politicians and pundits about its effects was “not good.”
Some worry that the June 23 referendum on taking the United Kingdom out
of the European Union will weaken the EU’s stance on Russia, which, in defiance
of sanctions, is continuing to wage a low-intensity war on Ukraine in its
eastern Donbas region.
Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister for European
Integration Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, speaking after the announcement of the
“Brexit” referendum results, said that the EU would lose focus on external
challenges as it dealt with problems within its ranks.
“We respect the British citizens’ decision, but
Ukraine feels sorry for these events. To my mind this will weaken the EU and it
will have to concentrate on its own problems,” Klympush-Tsintsadze said.
Political scientist and Eastern Europe expert
Andreas Umland agreed. Writing on June 26 on the Atlantic Council website,
Umland said “European politicians, diplomats, journalists, and experts will be
even more distracted from Ukraine’s internal developments and the
Russian-Ukrainian conflict” in the wake of the Brexit referendum.
“Ukraine will be affected for several years to
come. A considerable part of the EU’s future attention, energy, and resources
will be absorbed by the negotiations and implementation of Brexit and the
set-up of the UK’s new relationship with the EU.
“The relatively pro-Ukrainian and Russia-hawkish
British voice would disappear from the EU’s institutions.”
In addition, the Brexit vote could encourage
more anti-EU parties in Europe to step up efforts to break up the union itself,
warned Yevhen Hlibovytskiy, writing in the Evropeyska Pravda website on June
24.
“Populists in the continent will get the wind of
inspiration (and Russian money) in their sails, and it is very likely that they
will become more active throughout the European Union,” Hlibovytskiy wrote.
“Russia will feel more confident in relation to
Ukraine, and with great zeal promote its agenda in the EU.”
The economic fallout from Brexit was the main
concern for Dragon Capital analyst Elena Belan. Writing on Evropeyska Pravda
ahead of announcement of the referendum’s result, she predicted “negative
consequences not only for (the UK), but also for the rest of the EU.”
“Slower growth in the EU – the largest trading
partner of Ukraine, whose share in the exports of goods amounted to 34% in 2015
($ 13 billion), will weaken the economic recovery of Ukraine and make it
unlikely to achieve economic growth of 4.0% per year in the medium term, as the
IMF predicts,” Belan wrote.
Belan also warned that Ukraine might slip down the EU’s agenda as it
dealt with more pressing problems closer to home.
“Without a doubt, Brexit will create a lot of internal problems for the
EU’s leaders, which will mean that Ukraine may disappear from the radar of its
European partners.”
However, Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnilov was able to see some
silver edges to the Brexit clouds. Writing on the Espreso.TV news website, he
said the exit of the UK from the EU could prompt a reform of the union, which
could potentially benefit Ukraine.
“To demonstrate the
viability of the European project, it is not enough to simply state that it has
no alternatives. There are alternatives,” Portnikov wrote.
“The British referendum has
demonstrated that. It will be necessary to fight for a united Europe. And one
of the important arguments for this struggle is that there are countries on the
continent whose citizens are ready to take to the streets to defend the
European choice.
“If the European Union
wants to survive, it must … be a project of the supporters and defenders of
values.
“And that it cannot do
without Ukraine.”
