WARSAW, Poland -- Ukraine’s big moment at the NATO Summit in Warsaw comes on the second and last day – Saturday, July 9.
The full schedule of the July 8-9 NATO Summit in Warsaw is here.
That’s when President Petro Poroshenko will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama and leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy as part of the NATO-Ukraine Commission.
Later on July 9, at 5:45 p.m. Kyiv time, Poroshenko will give a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
The highlights on the first day of the summit, July 8, include agreement to station four battalions of about 1,000 soldiers each in NATO’s east – Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -on a rotational basis, starting next year. Canada will lead the battalion for Latvia, Germany in Lithuania, the United Kingdom in Estonia and the United States in Poland.
NATO members also agreed to beef up their cyber defenses. “This means better protecting our networks and our missions and operations, with more focus on cyber training and planning,” Stoltenberg said. Other highlights are here.
Regarding Ukraine, while Western allies have stressed that NATO members will reaffirm their support in the struggle against Russia’s war, details are still short on specifics and rhetorical backing has outpaced financial support.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO allies have raised only 5 million euros in trust fund money for Ukraine, in contrast to Afghanistan, for example, to which NATO trust funds have committed $1.3 billion euros.
Ukraine has also been disappointed by the West’s commitment in other ways.
Ukrainians had hopes at the beginning of the year that, looking at Obama’s scheduled appearance in Warsaw, he would take the opportunity after the summit to visit nearby Kyiv in the waning days of his presidency. Instead, Obama has chosen to go to Spain, the largest European country he hasn’t visited yet, and a key NATO ally. He will leave office as the first president since Ronald Reagan not to visit Ukraine while in office.
And, in a recent interview, former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said that Ukraine should abandon its dreams about joining NATO as he predicted more instability for Europe ahead.
Nonetheless, Russia’s war against Ukraine – in its third year – and its illegal military invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula – are driving the political-military alliance’s priorities.
Besides shoring up its presence among NATO’S eastern members to deter any possible Russian strike, “We have tripled the size of the NATO Response Force to 40,000 troops with a Spearhead Force at its core able to move within a matter of days,” Stoltenberg said.
Stoltenberg dismissed the premise of a question from a Russian journalist that the multinational troop buildup of NATO allies on Russia’s border shows that the alliance is the aggressor, not Russia.
“We are increasing our military presence in the Baltic countries and Poland, but there is no doubt that is something we do as a response to what Russia did in Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. “No one talked about any military presence of the kind we now see in Poland and the Baltic countries before Ukraine, before the illegal annexation of Crimea. What we do is defensive, it is proportionate, and it’s fully in line with our international commitments. And it is no way something that justifies any reactions from Russia. Because it is in all ways defensive measures from the NATO side. We have seen a more assertive Russia. We have seen a Russia which has been willing to use military force against sovereign nations in Europe. With aggressive actions against Ukraine, the illegal annexation of Crimea. And that’s the reason, the main reason, why we are now increasing our military presence in the eastern part of the alliance.”
While Ukraine’s status as victim of Russian aggression is driving NATO priorities, Ukraine remains far from any membership in NATO and, recognizing it needs to modernize its military, hasn’t even applied to join the alliance.
Stoltenberg talked about Ukraine’s status at another morning press briefing on July 8 during an experts’ forum.
“They are focusing on the reforms and will wait with the application until they have moved further and modernize the defense sector, more than is the case today,” Stoltenberg said of Ukraine’s leaders. “We support them with political support and practical support. We will also step up that support at this summit. What is unchanged is every nation has the right to choose its own path. It applies to Georgia, Ukraine and all other nations. Whether Georgia or Ukraine or any other nation is going to be a member of NATO is up to that nation to decide and the 28 allies. That’s a fundamental principle that every nation has the right to decide its own path.”
And U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, speaking in Kyiv on July 7, said Ukraine has a long way to go before it is NATO-ready.
“And NATO will also welcome Ukraine’s progress on defense reforms, particularly on civilian oversight of the armed forces and its move towards NATO standards. So that will be recognized. In addition, we have strongly supported – the United States has strongly supported not only that package, but we’ve contributed – we have contributed in kind to four of the six trust funds that were mentioned by President Poroshenko – specifically the command and control, the cyber, the medical rehabilitation, and logistics,” Kerry said. “Now, in addition to that, let me just say that the United States stands by our open-door policy. We’ll welcome new members when they’re ready. As President Poroshenko himself has said on several different occasions, Ukraine has a long way to go in order to modernize and reform its defense sector and increase its interoperability with NATO, which is part of the discussion that takes place in the context of the NATO-Ukraine Commission.”
In a pre-summit conference call with journalists, Ben Rhodes, a U.S. deputy national security advisor for strategic communications, talked about America’s commitment to Ukraine.
“In particular on Ukraine, it’s an important opportunity to reaffirm our support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, to stress the urgency of moving forward with the implementation of the Minsk agreements, and expressing our continued determination to maintain sanctions on Russia should they not follow through on those commitments,” Rhodes said.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Douglas Lute said he expects that Poroshenko on July 9 “will give us a firsthand take on what’s going on, both politically and in terms of the security situation in Ukraine. And in return, the alliance will recommit to Ukraine the kind of support that we’ve Ukraine as a key partner over the years.”
Meanwhile, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published on July 7, Poroshenko called for stronger pressure by the West against Russia, but did not specify what steps he was advocating.
“Pressure on the aggressor must be intensified until the Kremlin fulfills its obligations under the Minsk agreements, reverses the illegal and illegitimate self-declared annexation of Crimea, and comes back under the rule of law,” Poroshenko wrote.
According to Poroshenko press spokesman Yarema Dukh, Poroshenko arrived in Warsaw at 11:30 a.m. Kyiv time on July 8. He was expected to first meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Deputy Prime Minister Ivana Klympush-Tsintsadze is also among Ukrainian officials attending.
