As the United States reportedly is readying new sanctions against those in Ukraine who resort to violence, America's intelligence chief has warned the U.S. Senate that embattled Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is "firmly intent" on holding on to power. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said that Yanukovych will likely resort to violence, illegal acts and other tactics to ensure his re-election in 2015.
Clapper's written warning came on Jan. 29 in Washington, D.C. during testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Clapper notes that while Russia’s $15 billion bailout will help Ukraine’s economy in the short term, the long term risk is greater dependence on Russia, postponement of much-needed economic reforms and further erosion of democratic standards.
The warning came before parliament’s vote late last night approving conditional amnesty for more than 100 EuroMaidan protesters detained by police in demonstrations. The bill passed with a 232 majority by the ruling Party of Regions and their Communist Party allies, after strong-arming during an emergency meeting with their leader, President Viktor Yanukovych.
The opposition is against the amnesty law because it forces EuroMaidan demonstrators to leave occupied government buildings first, effectively holding the detainees hostage to government threats and further incarceration, regardless of whether they’ve committed any crimes.
The law’s passage will likely only inflame tension further in the nation, which is “on the brink of civil war,” ex-President Leonid Kravchuk warned in parliament on Jan. 29.
Clapper’s warnings also come as Reuters, citing its congressional aides as sources, says that the United States is prepared to apply harsher sanctions against Ukrainian officials and protest leaders who escalate violence in the EuroMaidan protests in which at least four protesters have already been killed and hundreds wounded.
The section about Ukraine in the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community
“As Ukraine heads toward the presidential election scheduled to take place in 2015, political
developments in Ukraine probably will continue to be shaped by opposition and public anger over the
Yanukovych administration’s abuse of power, the need for Yanukovych to maintain the loyalty of key
elites, and his efforts to balance Ukraine’s relationship with Russia and the West. Political developments
in Ukraine will increasingly be shaped by public protests over Yanukovych’s refusal to sign the
Association Agreement (AA) and the presidential election scheduled to take place in 2015. Yanukovych
backed away from signing the AA with the EU at the Eastern Partnership Summit in November 2013,
probably because Moscow offered the only option for immediate financial support to avert a financial
crisis that would threaten his reelection bid. Firmly intent on maintaining his hold on power, Yanukovych
will probably resort to coercion, extralegal means, and other tactics to tilt the playing field in his favor and
ensure his reelection, threatening a further erosion of democratic norms. The first tranche of Russia’s $15 billion aid package that Kyiv and Moscow signed in December will allow
Kyiv to stave off a fiscal crisis in the short term but risks increasing Ukraine’s economic dependence on
Moscow. Russia’s aid package removes incentives for Kyiv to enact painful economic reforms necessary to spur growth, and the ambiguous terms of the bailout leave Kyiv more vulnerable to Russian pressure,
particularly on energy issues.”
