Much is at stake for Ukraine as the Eastern Partnership summit to be held in Vilnius Nov. 28-29 nears. But the other nations of the partnership – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova – will be present, too, with their own agendas.
For Ukraine, inking an Association Agreement with the European Union could help bring the country in line with European democratic and trade standards. If that happens, joining the 28-nation EU could become conceivable someday. The deal includes a deep and comprehensive free-trade pact that would give Ukraine’s companies easier access to the world’s largest market, with 500 million residents.
Ukraine, moreover, is not the only nation in the region that has suffered from Russian bullying for trying to integrate more closely with the West. Besides blocking the import of many products from Ukraine, Russia has also threatened Ukraine with unspecified other sanctions if it inks the deal.
European Parliament member and Eastern Partnership vice chairman Jacek Saryusz-Wolski noted that the Kremlin pressure turned out to be too much for Armenia, which renounced its ambitions for an Association Agreement. Meanwhile, Moldova and Georgia are expected to initial such pacts.
Armenia
Armenia, with 3 million people, at one time wanted to follow in the footsteps of Ukraine with EU integration. But last month Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan did an about-face and said that his country will instead join the Kremlin-led Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
“Although Armenia insisted that this was a free choice, the EU is convinced that it had been subject to serious Russian pressures concerning security of its frontiers and energy security,” Saryusz-Wolski said. “We might just hope that, with time, Armenia will find a way to be less dependent on Russia and will be able to resume efforts concerning its approximation with the EU. Armenia should definitely not abandon the reform path, which began thanks to EU assistance.”
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan, with 9.2 million people, appears to not be looking East or West. Governed by the autocratic President Ilham Aliyev, the nation is one of the more economic vibrant in the Eastern Partnership because of its abundant supplies of oil and gas. Azerbaijan, which is technically in a state of war with Armenia over the Armenia-controlled Nagorno Karabakh region, criticized Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan for choosing to join the Russian-led Customs Union. Some 53 percent of Azerbaijanis, according to a recent poll by Eurasian Monitor, a research agency, in collaboration with Eurasian Bank of Development, are against joining the Customs Union – a higher degree of opposition than in Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia.
Belarus
Belarus, with 9.5 million people, has not been actively partaking in the Eastern Partnership, due to the distaste for democracy by its long-time dictator, President Alexander Lukashenko. Still, Belarusian officials are expected to participate in Vilnius after ignoring the last biannual summit in Warsaw in 2011.
But Belarus is part of the Russian-led Customs Union, so it will not be signing any free trade or political association agreements with the EU. Belarusian politicians have recently expressed discontent with the Customs Union. Belarus says its trade volumes have fallen since joining and that it has faced significant rises in the prices of basic goods, according to a report released earlier this year by Da Vinci AG consultancy. It also said that the volume of internal trade within the bloc decreased by 9.9 percent during the first five months of 2013. Meanwhile, Belarus has faced high inflation, which was 36.1 percent in 2012.
Georgia
While Georgia, with 4.5 million people, is no longer the region’s leader in terms of EU integration, its chances for initialing its own Association Agreement and deep and comprehensive free trade agreement in November are high, according to Saryusz-Wolski. “However, selective justice remains an obstacle,” he said. Georgia seems to have chosen a European course, holding what Saryusz-Wolski called “exemplary elections and transfer of power,” before starting to backslide on democratic standards.
Moreover, Russian pressure on Georgia the occupation and Kremlin-recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states is also worrying. So are changes in Georgian public opinion. Eurasian Monitor, a research agency, found in collaboration with Eurasian Bank of Development that 59 percent of Georgian citizens are in favor of joining the Customs Union.
Moldova
Moldova, with 3.6 million people, has aspired to join the EU and, like Georgia, will have a chance to show its Western ambitions if it follows through with initialing anticipated association and free trade agreements of its own at the November Eastern Partnership summit.
Similarly to Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia, Moldova has experienced bans on its goods exported to Russia. Russia’s consumer rights watchdog Rospotrebnadzor in September introduced an embargo on the import of Moldovan alcohol. The country’s winemakers, who export some 30 percent of their product to Russia, have said they stand to lose an estimated $5 million a month due to the move. Rospotrebnadzor has also hinted at a possible ban on Moldovan fruit.
“As far as the situation in Moldova is concerned, it deserves praise,” Saryusz-Wolski said. “The latest Russian threats concerning among others Transnistria, energy security or the ban on wines have consolidated the political scene in Moldova, which has stuck to its earlier commitment (to the EU).”
Kyiv Post editor Christopher J. Miller and staff writer Anastasia Forina can be reached at [email protected] and [email protected].
