The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, charged with overseeing the “cease-fire” and other measures mandated to it under the Minsk peace agreement, is still unable to move freely in areas where Russian-backed armed groups have seized control. That means the OSCE’s monitors cannot verify that Russia’s proxy forces have indeed pulled back their Russia-supplied heavy weapons from the front line, as they were to have done under Minsk.
Moreover, Russia’s fighters are growing frustrated at being placed on the Kremlin’s leash while Putin redeploys in Syria. They know that for their fiefdoms to be viable, they must take more ground, industry and cities. Indeed, the leader of the Russian-backed groups in Donetsk, Alexander Zakharchenko, has threatened to take Mariupol and the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Add to the mix the frustration of Ukrainian soldiers who have for months had to endure attacks by Russia’s proxies without firing back.
Without Russian support, fighting is unlikely to escalate significantly. But Russia’s proxy forces, with the help of Russian soldiers, are capable of sabotage, possibly to goad Kyiv into a military response used to justify further advances. There is a peace of sorts in Ukraine now, but it will only remain if the West keeps constant pressure on the Kremlin to fulfill the Minsk accords and end its war once and for all.
