Russia has
been winning with a weak hand for too long because of the world’s refusal to
stand up to Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin stole the Crimean peninsula last year,
even knowing full well that Russia could not provide the electricity, water or
supplies for the two million peninsula residents. Moscow calculated that
Ukraine’s leaders would respond feebly and they were right. So Russia upped the
ante by invading the Donbas, erasing 400 kilometers of the eastern border in
the process, a state of war that continues today. Any loss of life because of
the blackout is Russia’s responsibility, not Ukraine’s.

Initially,
activists and volunteer battalions held off the Russia-backed and Russian
invaders – at a cost of 8,000 lives and counting – until the moribund Defense
Ministry came to life. Still, Ukraine’s political leaders could not summon the
willpower to declare a state of war or emergency to rally the nation. Instead,
parliament designated Crimea a free economic trade zone and continued to supply
the peninsula while asking the world to boycott trade there. Finally, Ukraine’s
leaders endorsed a trade boycott this week, after unknown saboteurs severed
power lines to Crimea, and they added in a complete ban on Russian flights over
Ukraine for good measure. It’s never too late, perhaps, but sooner would have
been better. Once again, Ukraine’s leaders lag far behind the public, as they
were during the EuroMaidan Revolution that drove Viktor Yanukovych from power
last year. Ukrainians politicians are being dragged in the right direction, not
leading the parade.

With
Russia, Ukraine slowly moved to cut off trade ties, exposing Kyiv’s heavy
reliance on Russia’s gas, oil and other goods. President Petro Poroshenko
continues to trade with the enemy through his Russian Roshen plant, something
he promised to sell but didn’t. This shows his moral failings and poor
leadership, second perhaps only to Poroshenko’s indefensible position to
keeping control of the General Prosecutor’s Office, the biggest impediment to
justice in the nation.

As for
Turkey, the NATO member and European Union aspirant, it continued to trade
vigorously with Crimea and Russia, ignoring Western-led sanctions. Now that it
is at odds with Putin over Syria, perhaps Turkey will also join the Western
family in sanctioning Russia. Turkey’s autocratic president, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, finally had the nerve to do what none of his NATO allies did – order
the shootdown of a Russian warplane that entered Turkish airspace. Putin is not
going to go to war against Turkey over this incident. To the contrary, he
probably secretly respects Erdogan for the move and will think twice before
attacking Turkey’s interests.

But if
Putin for some reason has completely lost his bearings and wants to go to war
against Turkey, along with Ukraine and Syria and NATO, well then bring it on.
He will hasten his demise if the West responds strongly. Good will come out of
the situation if Black Sea neighbors Ukraine and Turkey align more closely and
move into the EU together, with Turkey also helping its smaller neighbor find
its way into NATO within the next decade as well. As far as we’re concerned,
politically and economically, the sun rises and sets in the West for Ukraine
from now on.