The other day, I looked at how President Petro Poroshenko can recover from his first-round defeat on March 31 and go on to beat comedic actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the April 21 runoff. People asked for balance, so here it is – 5 ways, some of them contradictory, that Zelenskiy can cruise to victory after winning 30 percent of the vote compared to Poroshenko’s 16 percent in the first round. Another editor’s note: The Kyiv Post will not endorse either candidate for president on its editorial pages. We intend to be as fair and neutral as journalistically possible.
- Run out the clock
People have made up their minds. They want someone else besides Poroshenko. You’re the someone else. Do as little as possible. Don’t go out of your comfort zone – stay on the road for the remaining 17 days with your comedy troupe. You could have avoided debates entirely by reminding people that Poroshenko refused to debate in 2014. But you went ahead and accepted the debate challenge, opening yourself up to risk and giving Poroshenko an opening.
- Give assurances
People are justifiably worried about the security situation of a nation at war, with Russia already occupying 7 percent of Ukrainian territory. People want to know you’ll be tough on Russia and unwavering in trying to get the eastern Donbas and Crimean peninsula returned. Start naming your national security team. Otherwise, seek to calm nerves by saying there will be no imminent shakeup in the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry or National Security and Defense Council. Remind people that the president doesn’t do the fighting – the soldiers do.
- Ban Kolomoisky
You’ve said you’re not a puppet of billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, but there are still strong doubters. The doubts are fueled by the people on your team who have also worked for Kolomoisky – like the lawyer Andriy Bohdan, who is on your team but doesn’t take a public role. You need to clearly state your revulsion to Kolomoisky’s illegal business practices and rent-seeking, while show that you will not interfere with Ukraine’s attempts to recover the $5.6 billion pilfered from PrivatBank, owned by Kolomoisky until the state took it over in 2016. Like in “Servant of the People,” a condemnation of the oligarchy always wins votes. But from you, people will be watching your ties to Kolomoisky very closely. It’s best to avoid any advisers tied to him should you get elected.
- Take the high road
Respond quickly to attacks on you, but take the high road of the victor. Start looking more and more presidential and less and less like an actor with each day, so people can get used to you in this role in real life. Ukrainians don’t like reelecting presidents. Only Leonid Kuchma was reelected in 1999, and he had to cheat to get it done. The spring wind is at your back. Remember that Poroshenko is not evil. The nation’s survival was at stake in 2014 when he took over. He helped keep everyone together. His flaws don’t make him or his presidency a failure. National unity can come by extending him a hand, if you win, rather than a punch to the face.
- Bring back the reformers
Poroshenko forced out more than one reformer during his time in office in many areas of government. The more that you can show people that you aim to bring well-respected professionals back into positions of power, the better, regardless of their political affiliation. Ukraine’s major reforms took place in 2014-2016, before stalling the last three years. Having ex-Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk and ex-Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius in the fold is a healthy start. But you need more. Poroshenko also has some great people working for him. They should be kept on. You will need the ex-president to help with a smooth transition and with getting things done in parliament, since his 135-member bloc is the dominant force among lawmakers. Politics is brutal, but governance need not be.
