After Victor Yanukovych defeated Yulia Tymoshenko in Ukraine’s Feb. 7 presidential election, many in the West, but also in Ukraine, proclaimed the Orange Revolution dead. The opposite is true.
Five years on, Ukraine’s democratic gains are stronger than ever. The elections met international standards. The plethora of Ukrainian political TV shows with exit polls, politicians and experts from opponents’ camps demonstrate vibrant media pluralism. Ukrainians, like any other Westerners, held their politicians accountable for broken electoral promises, in this case those of the Orange Revolution.
But there is no mood of celebration. Rather, pre-election fatigue persists. What is wrong then?
First, old perceptions, especially from Western media and policy-making circles about the pro-Western Orange team led by Tymoshenko and outgoing President Victor Yushchenko versus a pro-Russian Yanukovych continue to prevail. There is no such thing. Since the Orange Revolution, all politicians are pro-Ukrainian.
In addition, Tymoshenko has faced the ad hoc coalition of the two Victors since the very beginning. Second, there is democracy in Ukraine, but still ‘rent-seeking’ governance. While Ukrainians, the real keepers of the Orange Revolution, are behaving in the “Western way” as voters, the whole political elite self-servingly misuses public office for the benefit of their sponsors. Let’s not call it the “Eastern way,” but the combination of democracy and such governance conforms to a marked “Ukrainian standard.”
This is the reason why many Ukrainians see no difference between candidates. Seemingly, government will continue to be based on the model developed under former President Leonid Kuchma. The higher turnout in eastern Ukraine and the considerable number of ‘votes against all’ has given Yanukovych a narrow victory. However, it was not Yanukovych who won, but the fragmentation of the Orange team that cost Tymoshenko victory.
How Ukraine handles the shift from the Orange Revolution hero Yushchenko to its villain Yanukovych will determine whether the country can change its governance model and embed European standards. The way of state functioning is what is at stake, not the country’s geopolitical orientation.
Ukraine’s political and business elite wish to keep the country in the grey zone, where they can most benefit. This is where oligarchs enjoy monopoly and can further siphon off Ukraine’s resources while using geopolitical arguments to avoid Western conditionality. This limits greatly the process of European integration, as oligarchs evidently have little interest in European competition.
The middle class is an emerging force that could push the country forward. These are the people who have taken out loans in foreign currency, but are paying back their debts, thus taking a responsible stance towards their misjudgment.
The country needs more responsible citizenry. Only average citizens can mold a more responsible elite. The Orange Revolution was their first serious attempt at shaping politics. Now they need to hold the new president accountable, just as they did with Yushchenko in the first round of the elections.
This battle needs to be supported, as democratic consolidation will be a long process. The European Union needs to be more patient in dealing with Ukraine and to provide more targeted assistance. It needs to put less clout in the geopolitical rhetoric of Ukraine’s leaders, but focusing more on their deeds.
Ukraine’s new “Victor” is not badly positioned to bring more European standards to Ukraine. According to European Union diplomats, as prime minister he pursued more concrete steps towards EU integration than Tymoshenko did as premier.
There is no better European message for Yanukovych. He can complete the Orange Revolution and make history by ensuring not only a sustainable democracy, but also by changing Ukraine’s governance in a profound and long-lasting fashion.
Natalia Shapovalova and Balazs Jarabik are researchers at FRIDE, a European think tank for global action. This article was originally published in New Europe, Issue 873, on Feb. 14-20. It can be found on www.neurope.eu/articles/99128.php.
