Diplomats I had spoken to months back had assumed technically limited real impact on the Association Agreement/Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement as it has already come into force across the EU and kind of difficult for the Dutch to opt out of this.
The AA/DCFTA is in any event not a green light to EU accession to Ukraine. The EU has been careful, even since the Orange Revolution in 2004 never to give Ukraine any real EU accession perspective.
I think the French were always worried what Ukrainian agriculture would do to its farmers, if they ever joined.
Actually this lack of a real EU perspective for Ukraine explains a lot of Ukraine’s problems with political and economic development over the past two decades.
The experience of EU accession over the past 22 years (since the Copenhagen Treaty) is that countries given a real EU perspective actually do reform – and Ukraine needs that perspective or anchor for reform too.
Those Dutch voters who bothered to get out and vote sent a message that they don’t really care about “European” values, and want to stop the deepening and enlarging of the EU – but basically pulling up the drawbridge of Europe.
One pertinent US reader quipped that if the Dutch do not want to assist the West by providing a political and economic anchor for Ukraine, why should the US pay towards European and Dutch security – kind of what Republican Party presidential candidate Trump is saying.
I think this vote will play to anti-reform elements in Ukraine and makes reform of Ukraine that much more difficult.
I think the champagne corks could be heard popping in Moscow last night. I think Russia actively supported the no campaign in words and deeds.
Moscow will also likely actively back Brexit as this plays to its agenda of weakening NATO, the EU and Euro-Atlantic integration.
The short-term plus for Ukraine is that while the West seems to be imploding, with this vote, Brexit, the U.S. election, and then the French presidential election to come, why would Russia need further military intervention in Ukraine when likely new Western leaders and a much weakened EU/NATO might end up delivering everything he wants on a plate next year?
The message to Ukraine is likely build up your own defenses and ensure “self-reliance” as the West is due to disappoint you yet again.
