For many people in the “white-and-blue” camp [the colors of the Victor Yanukovych campaign], neither Victor Yushchenko nor Yulia Tymoshenko will ever become one of their own. A typical “Orange” supporter will never recognize Yanukovych as “own kind.”
This division started during the event now referred to as the Orange Revolution.
Ideal politicians, honest and non-corrupt ones, were lacking in both the white-blue and orange camps. Nevertheless, the label “bandits” and “criminals” was stuck to my blue-and-white camp in 2004.
But forget the labels! In November 2004 an impressively politically incorrect election video in support of Yushchenko appeared. It said: “In autumn 1944, our fathers and grandfathers freed Ukraine from Hitler’s troops. In autumn of 2004 let’s free it from bandits in power!” But I, having worked for Yanukovych, never killed people in the Babyn Yar.
The response to “bandits” and “criminals” in 2004 was a suggestion that Ukraine needs to become a federal state, Russian should become the second state language and enlivenment of the anti-NATO campaign.
After 2004, these three themes took a prominent place in election campaign of the Party of the Regions. They are supported by the core of voters loyal to Yanukovych.
We have had plenty of other negative things in the last few years. In May 2007, Yushchenko announced a snap parliamentary election. When the Constitutional Court of Ukraine started to consider the Party of the Regions’ appeal about the legitimacy of this decision, Yushchenko pronounced that the Constitutional Court has turned into “an institution that has compromised itself.”
I thought then that, after the lessons of Maidan (the Orange Revolution on Independence Square), bringing in half a million of miners from Donetsk would have been enough to block Yushchenko in his residence in Bezradychi [in Kyiv Oblast] – all the way up to the decision by the Constitutional Court. But Yanukovych decided against it, and even agreed to that – clearly unlawful – snap election.
So, what can I predict about the actions of Yanukovych, the president of Ukraine – if he ever becomes one?
Ukraine will go back to the multi-vector policies dating back to President Leonid Kuchma, who ruled from 1994 to 2005. The chances for a visa-free regime with the European Union Shengen zone will remain at the current level, but the chances of Russia introducing visas will drop.
The problem of illegal immigration will not go down. The issue of NATO will be off the agenda and political debate in the near future. To campaign in support of NATO once again, as I had done under Kuchma, one would have to explain to the voters that Yushchenko was a very bad politician, but NATO has always been a very useful organization for Ukraine to join. But I have no idea how that can be explained.
As far as the freedom of the press goes, everything will remain calm under Yanukovych.
His Donbass crowd left the region long ago and is now used to perceiving the Kyiv media as an existing reality. I don’t think there will be no problems at all, but I do think that problems will be fewer than with Tymoshenko, who on Oct. 2 last year said during a live TV program “Who told you people don’t want dictatorship?” She also secured a decision by the Pechersk court on Sept. 24, 2009, forbidding any negative information about Tymoshenko.
As far as the economy goes, a true reform of the utilities sector is a very realistic expectation under Yanukovych. The pension age will not be increased, contrary to the demands of the International Monetary Fund. Gas prices will not rise speedily. Land reform – meaning land sales — will be delayed. I am absolutely sure there will be nothing like Tymoshenko’s statement on Feb 22, 2005, that 3,000 enterprises will be reprivatized.
But it’s not an accident that I, earlier in this column, had left the question open whether Yanukovych will become the next president. The thing is, any election Tymoshenko does not win, she will pronounce to be falsified and undemocratic. And her rivals will once again be labeled “bandits” and “criminals.”
It’s important to understand that it’s Yanukovych who is running in an election. Tymoshenko is the one who is running a warfare.
It is important to note that in the current election my position has been to not endorse anyone, but only to show the dangers of a potential Tymoshenko presidency. I wrote this column at the request of the Kyiv Post, however.
Viacheslav Pikhovshek is a former chief editor of news on 1+1 TV channel. He was also speech writer for former President Leonid Kuchma. He can reached at [email protected].
