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Top 10 economic, business events feature crisis

24 December 2008, 23:59
Top 10 economic, business events feature crisis
2008 will be remembered as yet another year when bright spots in business got overwhelmed by economic gloom

The year 2008 will be remembered as yet another one when business boomed with many bright spots. But the decade-long growth spurt ultimately gave way and was overwhelmed by economic gloom and doom.

 

1Economic growth ends in recession

Ukraine’s impressive decade-long economic growth spurt came to an abrupt halt this year giving way to what is expected to be a painful recession. It all started with the worldwide credit crunch earlier this year, culminating with this autumn’s global financial crisis. The collapse of world prices on steel, Ukraine’s major export, and a widening current account deficit have sent Ukraine’s currency into a tumble, in turn raising the prospect of defaults and banks going bust.

For the first time in a decade, Ukraine was forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund, which granted a whopping $16.4 billion standby loan to stabilize the country’s financial system.

More pain, including layoffs, await next year as industrial production plunges.

 

2Inflation spirals, reaches 25 percent

A third stiff price hike on natural gas from Russia, coupled with a consumer lending boom and monopolized price fixing in some business sectors, triggered spiraling inflation in Ukraine. While inflation is expected to cool off a bit next year due as consumption tapers off in recession, Ukraine managed this year to post the highest annual rate of inflation in Europe, estimated between 20 and 25 percent.

 

3Record harvest offers glimmers of hope

Ukraine’s notoriously rich black soil bore fruit this year, producing a record harvest of about 54 million tons of grain, double last year’s crop. The huge crop offers a glimmer of hope in a year that has been clouded with economic ills. Exports from this huge crop surplus will to an extent compensate for plummeting exports of steel, Ukraine’s main source of hard currency. Looking ahead, the hope is that when agricultural land privatization is sanctioned, billions of dollars of fresh investment will pour into possibly enough to triple harvests and establish Ukraine as an agricultural powerhouse.

 

4Billionaires take a beating in downturn

Ukraine’s multi-billionaires have not escaped the wrath of the economic ills. With stocks tumbling, demand for steel waning and credit markets frozen, the asset value of billionaires such as Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest, are in a nose-dive. According to recent estimates, Akhmetov’s net worth has halved from about $30 billion in early 2008. In 2007, Ukraine’s youngest billionaire, Kostyantin Zhevago, rushed to London floating his iron ore company Ferrexpo. It cost him dearly. In 2008, after Ferrexpo’s stock plummeted, investors who lent Zhevago cash taking shares as collateral exercised a margin call. Zhevago lost 25 percent of the company. More losses will pile up for Ukraine’s billionaires if banks go bust next year.

 

5Ukraine, Russia brace for repeat gas war

The energy showdown between Ukraine and Russia remained in high gear this year. Still adjusting to three stiff price hikes on natural gas in as many years, Kyiv and Moscow are bracing for yet another New Year's gas price and debt standoff. Russia has warned that if Ukraine doesn’t pay its debts, it will cut off supplies, raising the prospects of yet another disruption in supplies to European markets. The stakes are perhaps higher this year, as both countries are also struggling with the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko hopes to remove shadowy middlemen companies from the multi-billion-dollar gas trade between Ukraine, Russia and Central Asian producers. But debt arrears and her escalating rivalry with President Victor Yushchenko has complicated talks. Russia is, meanwhile, playing Ukraine’s leaders off one another as part of a traditional game of divide-and-conquer.

 

6Privatization sinks into deep freeze

As in previous years, Ukraine squandered a huge opportunity to raise billions of dollars in badly-needed revenues through privatization of prized assets such as state telephone company Ukrtelecom, power utilities, Odessa Portside plant and other assets. Fearful that his rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would use proceeds to win voter support ahead of a presidential contest with social handouts, President Victor Yushchenko essentially froze privatization. Ukraine could have used the cash today to soften the blow of the global financial crisis and pending recession. Even if privatization kicks off next year, and that's a big if, the collapse of asset valuations means the country will raise only a tiny fraction of what it could have collected for its remaining treasures.

 

7Record foreign direct investment pours in

While 2008 will most likely be remembered as the year the recession hit, it was, ironically a record year for Ukraine in terms of foreign direct investment inflows. Official figures show that some $8-9 billion dollars in fresh FDI poured in this year, bringing the total inflows since independence to nearly $38 billion. This is still far shore of the $100 billion-plus that Central European countries have attracted, but big progress for Ukraine, which in its first decade of freedom attracted less than $10 billion. Inflows have sharply picked up after the Orange Revolution slapped Ukraine onto the radar screen of investors. Unfortunately, inflows are expected to fall next year.

 

8Arrival of low-cost airlines popular

With their pockets increasingly squeezed by inflation, the arrival of low-cost airlines offers a glimmer of hope for many traveling Ukrainians. Hungary’s WizzAir was the first to launch so-called low cost airline services in Ukraine. Others followed, offering domestic airfares as low as $30 and competitive flights to Europe. The arrival of new players onto a market long dominated by a handful of passenger carriers is expected to fuel competition, bringing cheaper tickets and more value to customers.

 

9 Kyiv joins World Trade Organization

After more than a decade of tough negotiations and stonewalling by Ukrainian lawmakers on adopting necessary legislation, Kyiv was finally accepted into the World Trade Organization this year. The achievement promises to open up access to markets for the country’s exporters, while simultaneously lifting import barriers for WTO members eyeing Ukraine’s vast market of 46 million citizens. Ukraine’s ability to join the WTO ahead of its bullying northern neighbor, Russia, will also yield some rare leverage. Russia will need Ukraine’s approval and need to make trade concessions to be accepted into the WTO.

 

10Murky standoff in Black Sea dispute

Houston-based Vanco Energy won tender in 2006 to explore and produce hydrocarbons on a vast 13,000 kilometers field on Ukraine’s Black Sea coat. The project was intended to diversify Ukraine’s source of energy, cutting down on increasingly costly oil and natural gas imports from Russia. But like many things in Ukraine, this strategically important project has gone sour. Scandal erupted when news broke that Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, and a group of secretive investors with possible Russian roots had owned the majority stake. It’s no surprise that Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko cancelled the project, whose fate will depend on a ruling by international arbitrators.

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  Comments (5)
Guest    (Guest) | 28.12.2008, 22:54
http://ukraineeconomy.blogspot.co m
Guest    (Guest) | 26.12.2008, 14:12
In the German newspaper \"Die Presse\" it is said that the IMF expects the Dollar to cost about 15 Hryvnia in early spring 2009 in the worser case.

Source: http://diepresse.com/home/wirtsch aft/eastconomist/439255/index.do? _vl_backlink=/home/wirtschaft/eas tconomist/index.do
Guest    (Guest) | 25.12.2008, 21:05
Ukraine’s currency, down 50 percent against the dollar since June, may weaken another 24 percent as the International Monetary Fund restricts the former Soviet nation from halting the slide, Commerzbank AG says.

“It’s like a freefall, a falling knife,” said Michael Ganske, head of emerging markets in London for Commerzbank, Germany’s second-biggest bank. “The central bank has limited ammunition and ability and willingness to support the currency.”

The IMF’s $16.4 billion bailout package, agreed to last month, requires Ukraine to move toward a flexible exchange rate and prohibits reserves from falling more than 4 percent by yearend from about $32.8 billion now. While the pact permits intervention to stem “disorderly” swings, Ganske said such a decision “would be stupid.”
Guest    (Guest) | 25.12.2008, 15:04
\"Ukraine could have used the cash today to soften the blow of the global financial crisis and pending recession\"
Except that Ukraine wouldn\'t have had the cash today since it would already have been handed out in social handouts thereby further raising standards of living \"ariticially\" that is without any corresponding rise in production.
Guest    (Guest) | 25.12.2008, 21:10
That\'s right. Ukraine lived in the past eight years mainly out of foreign investement. Wages were raising (mainly in bigger cities, especially Kiev) and a lot of people could afford car and other convenient things. But all these increases in welfare are not sustainable, as Ukraine neither rised productivity nor needed reforms were started.
In mid to longer run, wage increases are only possible if the corresponding productivity raises. If this is not the case, wages are not sustainable.
The 40% of exports depending on steel, show a vulnerable economy. It was the current crisis which gave the hit, but it could have been some other event.
The crisis and the weakening of the Hryvnia will help to improve competition among domestic producers, as it will not be profitable to import. Ukraine has no the chance to make a change and to work hard to be better off in future. Just have a look at Slovakia.. or is Ukraine still too much sovjet attached?
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