Editor’s Note: Olena Tregub, a freelance contributor to the Kyiv Post, conducted a series of interviews with German experts on Ukraine. The following is one of them.
Andreas Wittkowsky is project manager for Peace and Security as well as coordinator of the working group on comprehensive conflict management at the Center for International Peace Cooperation in Berlin. He is the author of an influential German book on Ukraine in 1991-96, under the title Five Years Without a Plan. After completing this study, he occupied research and administrative positions with various organizations, including the German Development Institute, United Nations and German Association for East European Studies.
Kyiv Post: How would you assess the results of President Viktor Yanukovych’s first year of presidency in comparison to those of the previous Orange leadership?
Andreas Wittkowsky: On the positive side, the permanent obstructive power struggle of the political elites, which paralyzed the country, has cooled down substantially. Ukraine has become more governable. Unfortunately, this comes not as a result of convincing leadership, but of authoritarian tendencies, in particular vis-a-vis the media. At present, it is not clear whether the improved ability to govern is used to promote the development of the country – the track record on key reforms is not that impressive. Some dubious appointments to key posts fuel suspicions where Ukraine is heading. Obviously, the Yanukovych presidency is still maneuvering to find its course within the parameters of Ukraine’s ongoing two-vector foreign policy.
KP: Should the EU use the association agreement, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and visa-free regime negotiations as a leverage and conditionality factor to promote political and other reforms in Ukraine, or should these agreements be signed as soon as possible?
AW: No doubt these negotiations require Ukraine to make progress in key areas of reforms. Visa-free travel might be achieved earlier, if conditions are met, association is clearly a longer term goal. The [free-trade] concept should be critically revised, allowing for the conclusion of a classicalfree-trade agreement (possibly with defined exceptions) earlier, and adding the more challenging "deep" elements at a later stage.
KP: Could and should the current pro-Russian German position be replaced by a pro-Ukrainian position? To which degree may domestic political changes in Germany play a role for its future Eastern policy positions?
AW: This dichotomy is wrong as it reflects zero-sum thinking. Germany has clear political and economic interests in fostering good relations to both Russia and Ukraine. Putting Ukraine first and neglecting Russia would certainly neither be in the German, nor in the European interest – but also not in Ukraine’s. Trying to play the one against the other is shortsighted.
KP: Do you have any specific advice for the Ukrainian government to change Ukraine’s image in Germany for the better, and improve Ukraine’s attractiveness for German investors?
AW: A sustainable, credible track record in institutional reforms – economic regulation, rule of law, and an open democratic society – is essential. In the past, Ukraine too often relied on playing the ‘we are the poor victims’ tune and combined these appeals with erratic policy actions in key areas of mutual interest (such as the the energy sector). It is obvious that such a strategy (if it can be called a strategy at all) is counter-productive.
KP: Did the decision to prosecute the former President Leonid Kuchma for the Sept. 16, 2000, murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze add credibility to the current government and improve its image in the West? What are your expectations about how this case should be resolved?
AW: It is probably safe to say that the pursuit of high-ranking criminal cases in the entire post-Soviet space is first and foremost a function of internal power struggles. However, if conducted in an open and transparent manner, with proper legal procedure applied, this case could demonstrate that Ukraine is willing to pursue a different legal culture than, let’s say, a northern neighbor who has also recently conducted a prominent case.
KP: Do you think Ukraine will ever enter the EU, and, if so, under which conditions and when approximately?
AW: Within the EU, thepriority will be to consolidate internally first, to enlarge later. The good news is that the way is the goal, to a large degree. The benefits of EU integration can be reaped all along the way (the integration process), not only at the end of the road (final membership). After all, Ukraine would rather be a slowly integrating associate of a strong EU, than a member of a weak one.
Olena Tregub is a freelance journalist who contributes regularly to the Kyiv Post.
