Editor’s Note: Olena Tregub, a freelance contributor to the Kyiv Post, conducted a series of interviews with German experts on Ukraine. The following is one of them.
Heinz-Wilhelm Strubenhoff is team leader of the project “German-Ukrainian Policy Dialogue in Agriculture” at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting at Kyiv.
Kyiv Post: How would you assess the results of President Viktor Yanukovych’s first year of presidency in comparison to those of the previous Orange Revolution leadership of ex-President Viktor Yushchenko or ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko?
Heinz-Wilhelm Strubenhoff: It is certainly an advantage that the collaboration between the president, the prime minister and the parliament improved considerably compared to the previous orange leaders. Stability and predictability of policies are necessary for conducting reforms. In some areas we observe progress. It is for instance now much easier to register a private business. Tax reform and administrative reforms are also good steps in the right direction. However, in some areas, for instance grain trade, we observe steps back towards state intervention and monopolies. Also, the fight against corruption is not really effective.
KP: Should the EU use the association, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements and visa-free regime negotiations as leverage and conditionality factor to promote political and other reforms in Ukraine, or should these agreements be signed as soon as possible?
HS: Reforms have to be implemented by Ukrainian policy and lawmakers. The EU may support this process but I would recommend to be careful not to overload negotiations between the EU and Ukraine. Conditionality should strictly be limited to financial support measures. If the EU or other international Organizations provide funds, they may link them to certain conditions. The liberalization of trade, however, is in the mutual interest of both negotiation partners. The visa-free travel should start as soon as possible. Young Ukrainians should feel as true Europeans.
KP: Should and should the current pro-Russian German position be replaced by a pro-Ukrainian position? To which degree may domestic political changes in Germany play a role for its future Eastern policy positions?
HS: The choice is not between Russia and Ukraine. The choice is between open democratic societies and autocratic regimes. Germany supports European democratic values and open markets.
KP: Do you have any specific advice for the Ukrainian government to change Ukraine’s image in Germany for the better, and improve Ukraine’s attractiveness for German investors?
HS: Germans, unfortunately, are less flexible than Ukrainians. German investors appreciate the rule of law and predictability. The first question from potential investors from Germany in agriculture, agribusiness and renewable energies that I usually get is: "How do you see the political framework for investments in Ukraine?" This is a clear indicator that the Ukrainian Government has to create predictable framework conditions, fight corruption and decrease the bureaucratic costs of doing business in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government may also wish to invest more time and efforts in public relations, transparent information and specific investment agencies.
KP: Did the decision of Viktor Yanukovych to prosecute the former president Leonid Kuchma for the 2000 murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze add credibility to the current government and improve its image in the West? What are your expectations about how this case should be resolved?
HS: There are mixed feelings about this case. It is positive that the murder of Gongadze is still an issue in Ukraine. Investigative impartial journalists play a very important role in an open society. The president is right to send clear messages to the public. In this case, however, it is not excluded that justice will never prevail.
KP: Do you think Ukraine will ever enter the EU, and, if so, under which conditions and when approximately?
HS: Currently, Ukraine does not have an EU membership perspective. This will not change during the next 10 years. The EU enlargement process is now for many reasons slower than in the previous decade. However, Ukraine may continue its way to Europe to force the EU to react. The EU will assess this process according to the Copenhagen Criteria. In particular the last condition is a real challenge for Ukrainian policy and law makers. Why should they implement EU laws without a concrete membership perspectives?
KP: Do you think Tymoshenko’s arrest will affect the signing of association agreement between Ukraine and the EU?
HS: The arrest of Tymoshenko is a political step. It is not in line with European values and the rule of law. A foreign policy impact including the EU is therefore not excluded. Olena Tregub is a freelance journalist who regularly contributes to the Kyiv Post.
Olena Tregub is a freelance journalist who contributes regularly to the KyivPost.
