You're reading: A full blockade of Donbas vital to save Ukraine, analysts say

As the new governor of Donetsk Oblast pushes for a full blockade of Kremlin-occupied territories and residents become increasingly frustrated with travel restrictions, some believe a blockade may be key to solving the crisis.

Analysts said the move was long overdue – and a necessary evil of war.

“If your hand becomes infected with gangrene, you have to cut off that limb to save the rest of your body. This is really no different,” said Vitaly Bala, head of the Situations Modeling Agency think tank.

“Yes, there may still be ordinary residents in these occupied territories, but they are occupied, and this is a war, albeit not officially,” Bala said. “A blockade is necessary to prevent the hatred that Russia is sewing in occupied territories from spreading elsewhere. If a blockade is not implemented, we will soon have the same thing we have in Donetsk and Luhansk in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and many other regions.

The new governor of the Donetsk Oblast, Pavlo Zhebrivsky, called for legislation to establish a full economic blockade of occupied territories upon taking the post on June 13.

“It is vital to clearly agree and spell out all of it,” Zhebrivsky said in an interview with news portal ZN.UA.

“I am ready to go the whole way, identifying for the region and the entire country all the risks. I am prepared to formulate my position – just give me a bit of time – and to hold negotiations with lawmakers and the government. But if they won’t hear me out, I will be forced to carry out this law anyway,” Zhebrivsky said.

Lawmaker Yury Lutsenko seconded the motion, citing the experience of Luhansk Governor Hennadiy Moskal as a sign that a full blockade would work, saying Moskal’s restrictions on transport had proven to be “correct.”

Volodymyr Fesenko of the Penta Centre for Political Studies said the term “blockade” was much more dramatic than the proposed legislation, and that a full blockade would never be possible anyway.

“There’s too much shared infrastructure between the two sides, it would simply be impossible to implement a full blockade, even if they wanted to. What is being suggested is really not as dramatic as it sounds; they would just live side by side as separate territories,” Fesenko said.

“But they need to find a balance between a full blockade and cutting off all ties and a sort of peaceful co-existence. With Donbas, however, I don’t think it will be either one – I think it will wind up being something in between. Until there is a full ceasefire, naturally, the blockade will be more all-inclusive, with restrictions on the flow of goods and traffic,” Fesenko said. “The idea that Ukraine is abandoning its own people is just propaganda. Ukraine is not refusing anyone, but this is a reality of war. Donbass is shattered, and Ukraine cannot control this territory, so why should it be obligated to take care of this territory?”

Residents in Russian-occupied territories have already made clear that they are growing frustrated with the situation.

About 500 residents of Donetsk staged a 500-man protest in the center of the city on June 15, demanding that separatist forces stop firing from residential areas, a tactic which prompts fire from Ukrainian forces. Many also called on leader Alexander Zakharchenko to remove heavy weaponry altogether.

This was the first sign of popular discontentment, which might turn the tide in the self-proclaimed republic.

Bala said the protest offered “a glimmer of hope” that people would soon realize for themselves that separatist leaders have nothing to offer.

“They are only useful for the Kremlin when there is military action, but once that stops, it will become clear that these are not real leaders,” he said.

Following Lutsenko’s comments in support of the blockade, several roads into the occupied territory were shut down in Donetsk Oblast, and new rules announced at a meeting between authorities of the Security Service, the State Fiscal Service and business representatives on June 16.

In accordance with the new procedure, the transportation of goods into occupied territories will be prohibited, with the exception only of humanitarian aid and goods transported by railway.

Passenger traffic will also be prohibited for ordinary civilians, with only refugees and young children allowed to pass through, and even then only with the proper permits.

The abrupt move left hundreds of residents stranded on June 15, and it has already earned the ire of Moscow. Russia’s human rights ombudsmen Konstantin Dolgov called the blockade a “violation of human rights” and called on the international community to condemn the move, according to Russia’s state-run news agency RIA Novosti.

Some Ukrainian analysts have warned that the blockade could have a boomerang effect and a boon to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“This will be a trump card for Putin’s propaganda – ‘You see, they are abandoning their own territory, they don’t want to make peace with their own citizens in these territories,’” analyst Igor Shevliakov of the International Center for Policy Studies said in an interview with UALife.net. “Such a decision means to de-facto admit that the Minsk agreement was absolutely useless.”