You're reading: Power Play: As Kolomoisky leaves Dnipropetrovsk, fears rise over security in eastern Ukraine

The dramatic firing of Dnipropetrovsk Governor Igor Kolomoisky, credited with staving off the spread of Russian-backed separatism in Ukraine’s second most populous oblast, has sparked nervousness over the region’s security.

Any instability in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine’s de facto eastern border, could allow Russian forces and their proxies to gain more ground.

Shortly after Kolomoisky was dismissed late on March 24, his deputies Gennady Korban and Svyatoslav Oliynyk resigned as well.

President Petro Poroshenko’s action came after Kolomoisky dispatched his security men to seize control of state-owned companies Ukrnafta and Ukrtransnafta. Before, the state tried to reassert control over Ukrnafta, in which Kolomoisky has a minority stake, and fired Kolomoisky’s former associate from the Ukrtransnafta top position.

Kolomoisky’s team in Dnipropetrovsk is credited with stopping the westward advance of Russian-backed forces. Now, some fear the creation of a separatist Dnipropetrovsk People’s Republic.

Viktor Mironenko, head of the Ukrainian Studies Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ European Institute, suggested that Kolomoisky’s resignation was part of a wider and destabilizing war among Ukraine’s powerful elites.

“If the Donbas falls because of this competition between elites, the only thing left to hold back the separatists is Dnipropetrovsk,” Mironenko said. “Ukraine needs to do some cleaning house, but I can’t imagine who is capable of doing that today.”

Oliynyk, who served as deputy governor for Kolomoisky, said he wishes the successors well, but doubts that the new governor, former media manager Valentyn Reznychenko, can be as successful on the security front.

“I doubt that the new governor realizes how much money it requires to maintain security,” he told the Kyiv Post.

According to him, Kolomoisky and his deputies last year raised some Hr 300 million to equip several volunteer battalions and to build 23 roadblocks to keep out separatist fighters based 70 kilometers away from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s border.

The money came from Kolomoisky himself, businesses and private donors, including foreign ones. Many of them donated because they trusted Kolomoisky, according to Oliynyk.

The fact that Kolomoisky funded the local volunteer battalions in 2014 stirred speculation about the oligarch putting together a private army. But the battalions have since been incorporated into the Interior Ministry as part of the National Guard.

The threat to the region comes not only from the east, where Russian forces and their allies are eager to snatch up more territory, but also from within Dnipropetrovsk, where Kolomoisky’s allies had been keeping local separatists in check.

According to Oliynyk, they were “maintaining a dialogue” with local separatist organizations to prevent attempts at seizing local government buildings. Two attempts took place in March 2014, but were unsuccessful.

Svyatoslav Oliynyk (right), one of former Dnipropetrovsk Governor Igor Kolomoisky’s deputies, talks to Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr Sakhnevych, a released prisoner of war on Sept. 11, 2014 in Dnipropetrovsk. (UNIAN)

Viktor Marchenko, leader of Soviet Officers Union, a non-government organization in Dnipropetrovsk, was one of the most active pro-Russian activists in the city. During the March rallies last year he called on the Russian army to come to the city. However, under the rule of Kolomoisky, Marchenko was forced to stop such activities. Marchenko blamed it on the pressure of local authorities, who started eight criminal investigations of separatism expressions in the region, and questioned him on all of them.

Such precautions paid off.

“There were terrorist attacks in Odesa and Kharkiv, but not a single one in Dnipropetrovsk,” Oliynyk said. “I know of three attacks that were prevented, and organizers were arrested. I’m sure there were more.”

But some experts still think that the role of Kolomoisky in keeping the region safe is exaggerated.

According to Volodymyr Fesenko, head of Kyiv-based Penta Center for Political Expertise, the success of the Kolomoisky’s team was largely based on Dnipropetrovsk and the local mood.

“To say that Kolomoisky was a savior of Dnipropetrovsk – sorry, but his plainly stupid,” he said. “The polls were showing that separatism risks in Dnipropetrovsk were much smaller than in Kharkiv or Odesa, let alone Donetsk.”

Some separatist leaders saw Kolomoisky’s ouster as a reason for celebration, however.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, suggested that Kolomoisky will create his own Dnepropetrovsk People’s Republic.

“Why not? Kolomoisky is the de facto leader of this territory, and that is the true authority. Kyiv will have to make some deal with him,” Zakharchenko was cited as saying by Kommersant newspaper. Denis Pushilin, another Kremlin-backed separatist leader, doubted Zakharchenko’s forecast, but didn’t rule it out.

“Considering the complicated situation that has shaped up in that part of Ukraine, anything can happen there,” Pushilin said in comments carried by Russian media.

Kyiv Post Lifestyle editor Olga Rudenko and staff writer Allison Quinn can be reached at olgarudenko.dp@gmail and [email protected], respectively.