You're reading: Report: New Russian offensive likely, and separatists would have advantage

A report released by the International Crisis Group has warned of further violence brewing in eastern Ukraine, where a “command crisis” by the Ukrainian military threatens to give the upper hand to Russian forces and their separatist proxies in new attacks.

The report cited Ukrainian officials, Western diplomats and observers in examining the situation in eastern Ukraine since the Feb. 12 cease-fire agreement, which for now seems to be holding in most places despite ominous predictions that a new offensive may be launched in coming days.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.

As things stand, the report said, several incidents since Feb. 12 point to the Russian side as having the biggest advantage in future fighting. Noting that “Ukrainian forces are determined but lack competent leadership,” the report’s authors said the separatists were “moving steadily – with substantial, probably growing, Russian command input – toward the creation of a functional army.”

Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, are plagued by a massive divide between combat troops and their more senior commanders – a fact the report says was made painfully clear after the loss of Debaltseve in February.

The report cited the loss of Debaltseve, a vital link between Donetsk and Lugansk, as a major blow to morale among Ukrainian troops.

The chaos during the battle for Debaltseve had highlighted the defects of Ukraine’s command structures, as soldiers on the ground were cited as saying commanders did “not have a grasp of the situation” and that some commanders had “dumped” their units altogether.

President Petro Poroshenko’s handling of the incident had further tarnished trust in the new Ukrainian authorities, the report said, as his claims of minimal casualties were quickly found to be untrue, and there were inconsistencies in his statements about the number of soldiers killed.

More than 6,000 troops were initially said to be fighting in Debaltseve, although Poroshenko later spoke of pulling out only 2,000.

Such sloppy moves by military leadership prompted one Ukrainian security adviser to tell the report’s authors that “75 percent of the military’s problem is the top leadership.”

The low morale among troops could lead to them turning against the military leadership, the report warned, saying Poroshenko would be wise to fire senior officers found to be unreliable in the field.

“The high command problem is a glaring example of a larger problem that could soon take on primary importance in Ukraine’s multifaceted crisis,” the report concluded.

The report ended on a gloomy note, saying “the threat to the Kyiv government is serious and growing” in light of separatists’ increased support from Russia, support that had been well-documented by observers who spotted more sophisticated weaponry since the Minsk II agreement.

“There is a real risk that Russia will test its military and political resilience again in the coming months. This time a separatist offensive may include substantial Russian troops, material and, most of all, command and control – in essence, a joint operation,” the report said.