You're reading: Donbas conflict escalates as insurgents get more Russian arms

Russia's war against Ukraine further escalated on Nov. 10, with Kremlin-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region getting massive amounts of Russian weapons and mercenaries and intensifying their shelling of Ukrainian forces.

The escalation followed the Nov. 2
elections in self-proclaimed separatist republics, which were
denounced as illegitimate by Ukraine and internationally, with
the Sept. 5 Minsk ceasefire deal effectively becoming obsolete.
Some analysts interpreted the Russian military buildup as preparation
for a full-scale offensive against the Ukrainian army.

As the ceasefire
agreement lay in tatters, Alexander Zakharchenko, head of the
self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said on Nov. 10 that
separatists had suspended prisoner exchanges with Ukraine until the
next round of negotiations in Minsk with the Ukrainian authorities.
Denis Pushilin, a member of the Kremlin-backed republic’s
legislature, said that the talks could be held in two weeks.

To aid the
separatists, Russia has already sent to Donbas six
“humanitarian” convoys that, according to many observers,
contained military equipment. The latest convoy arrived on Nov. 4,
and currently Russia is preparing a seventh one.

Dmytro Tymchuk, head
of the Information Resistance group, wrote on Nov. 10 that shelling
by separatists had become more intensive in the wake of the arrival
of the sixth convoy. He said Ukrainian forces had been shelled 65
times by separatists over the past 24 hours.

The Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe said on Nov. 9 that it had
observed two convoys of 17 Russian-made trucks each east of
Donetsk. They included artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems
and were moving west, the OSCE said.

Ukraine’s National Security and
Defense Council
, AP and the Action News channel have published videos
of Russian military equipment moving around Donbas in recent days. Last week the council said that a column of 32 Russian tanks
and other military equipment and 30 trucks with fighters had crossed the border
into Ukraine.

Kyiv Post+ is a public service offering special coverage of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the aftermath of the EuroMaidan Revolution. All articles, investigative reports and opinions published under this heading are free for republication during Ukraine’s time of national emergency. Kyiv Post+ is a collaboration of the Kyiv Post newspaper and the affiliated non-profit Media Development Foundation.

On Nov. 7, Tymchuk
said that in the previous few days Kremlin-backed insurgents had been
forming units fully prepared for an offensive. He said that
subversive groups of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate, or
GRU, and units of Russia’s airborne forces and land forces were
actively operating in Donbas.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg also warned
of Russian military buildup on Nov. 4. He said that Russia had moved
its troops closer to Ukraine’s border and continued to support
rebels by training them, providing equipment and by having Russian
special forces in eastern Ukraine.

A spokesman for the
anti-terrorist operation’s headquarters told the joinfo.uanews
site on Nov. 2 that thousands of Russian fighters and hundreds of
units of military equipment had crossed the border in the previous
days, with the total number of equipment and personnel increasing by
dozens of times. The anti-terrorist operation’s headquarters were
not available for comment on Nov. 10.

Russia’s Defense
Ministry has denied information on military buildup, while Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on Nov. 8 that there were no Russian soldiers in
Ukraine.

The developments coincided with more
militant rhetoric on the part of separatists. On Nov. 3, Igor
Plotnitsky, head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic,
said that insurgents aimed to expand and create the Zaporizhya,
Kherson, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Vinnytsya people’s republics.

Russian military
preparations spurred speculation that the Kremlin and Russian-backed
insurgents were preparing for a large-scale offensive.

Though some
observers doubted this would happen in the winter season, Vyacheslav Tseluiko, an expert at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said that winter was not an
obstacle. “Offensives are possible
in even more severe conditions,” he said, adding that winters in
Ukraine were relatively mild.

Tseluiko said, however, that a
significant number of Russian conscripts would be demobilized this
winter, which could prevent the Kremlin from launching an offensive.

He also said that insurgents did not
have enough resources to start an offensive on their own, and that a
full-scale Russian invasion was necessary for that. According to
analysts, until now Russia has only used relatively small units of
regular troops and has been reluctant to move in larger forces.