You're reading: How Putin showed himself to the world through the war in Ukraine

It's striking how perception of Vladimir Putin has changed since the beginning of his war in Ukraine. The eccentric, macho Vlad of the past who liked to bend rules in the eyes of the West has been replaced by an evil, unpredictable and threatening character whose hand you shun to shake.

The only illusion left, it seems, it that you still can and should make deals with him. But not everyone lives by it – especially among Russia’s neighbors. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said on Nov. 20 that Putin is pushing his country to be “aggressive, to occupy other regions and to drastically reorganize international security in the world, and especially in Europe.”

“We’re facing a situation that some of our neighbors are becoming a terrorist country,” she concluded bluntly.

At the Nov. 19 Kyiv Post Tiger conference experts from Ukraine and the West have added a few strokes to this new, international portrait of Putin.

This is a fight of Putin with West, it happens on Ukraine’s turf

“(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is testing West in Ukraine,” said Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former Commanding General of U.S. Army in Europe.

NATO earlier reported that Russia’s engaged into serious military buildup near Ukrainian border. There are at least about 100,000 soldiers equipped and prepared to attack, says Igor Smeshko, who heads Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine.

Smeshko also said Putin decided to invade Ukraine in order not to allow more evolution of development of the democratic country in western world. Timothy Ash, analyst at Standard Bank in London, adds that nobody knows how Ukraine conflict is going to go because nobody knows how one person in Kremlin thinks.

“However, Putin will go as far as we’ll let him,” Smeshko said during the conference. “He could get in the country, even to Kyiv, but it’s impossible for him to get out. It would be the end for him and for Russian Federation.”

Putin will not stop in Ukraine

“He cannot afford to lose,” Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling explains. “I saw what Mr. Putin was attempted to do in other countries and what he is continuing to do in Georgia, in Moldova, in Baltics. And now we are concerned what he’s going to do in Ukraine.” 

Putin’s message has evolved

While Russian officials are going out of their way to demand “100 percent guarantees” that Ukraine will not join NATO, experts in Ukraine say this is miles from where his rhetoric started.

Previously he “knocked on the doors of NATO and EU,” and declared Russia and NATO to be “best friends,” according to Smeshko.

However, he was insulted with Baltic countries joining NATO without consulting with him. And he will do everything to prevent Ukraine moving further in this direction, Smeshko explains.

There is still hope that Putin can be reasoned with

Despite clear evidence of Russian intervention in Ukraine, most world leaders still consider Putin a key partner and try to persuade him to get out of Ukraine. Most recently it happened at the G20 Australian summit earlier this month, when Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Putin “I guess I’ll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you: you need to get out of Ukraine.” Putin responded with a lie: that it’s impossible because he is not there.

Officially, the West still isn’t accusing Putin of invading Ukraine, according to Joseph LaGasse, US security expert and former special advisor to the White House.

“There were no actions from the west,” said LaGasse. In fact, Ukraine continues to be urged to reach a compromise with Putin, and attempt to stop him by appeasing.

Putin’s has support in Europe, which is underestimated

LaGasse also says that Ukraine should not underestimate the support that Putin has in Europe.

Recently Russian president was given 30 minutes prime time on German TV to speak about Ukraine’s government inability to stabilize situation in the east and blamed Ukraine’s western allies for supporting EuroMaidan Revolution that reshuffled the power in Kyiv. That happened right after he escaped from the G20 summit, which Putin left early to catch on some sleep.

“There are nationalistic movements in Hungary, Belgium, Germany, UK. Also don’t underestimate his allies – China, Turkey, Iran and a number of South American and Gulf countries.”

Putin is a dictator for life

The west is slowly coming to realize that Putin will remain dictator for life, and will no longer play the swapping games. LaGasse, who first met Putin in 1994, recalled Putin had decided to be a life-long dictator then. Now, it’s merely a change of the means to rule.

“We may say that Putin is dictator but he was successful. He also plans very well. The question is can he secure his Gazprom future and the future of Russia? Can he continue his politics in Syria, Iran?” LaGasse is also certain the only one country Russia will listen to is China that suggests Ukraine how to build up its security paradigm in the future. 

Kyiv Post staff writer Olena Goncharova can be reached at [email protected]