You're reading: Ukraine readies for new Russian military assault in nation’s east

Ukraine should be prepared for a rebel offensive, Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the National Security and Defense Council, said at a news briefing on Nov. 13.

He said that there were four possible directions for the offensive – Stanytsia Luhanska in Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk, Debaltseve and Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast.

Speculation about an imminent offensive has grown as Russia launched large-scale military preparations, moving more weapons and troops into the Donbas in the past weeks. Ukraine has denounced Russia’s actions as a violation of the Sept. 5 Minsk ceasefire agreement.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was discussed late on Nov. 12 by the U.N. Security Council, but it did not adopt any resolution. The issue was also scheduled to be considered at a NATO forum in Split, Croatia, on Nov. 13.

Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak commented on Russia’s actions at a Cabinet meeting on Nov. 12.

“We’re seeing a redeployment of the Russian army, and we are ready within our capacity to react to the unpredictable actions of armed groups located on the territories beyond our control,” he said.

The ministry claims to be doing its part by staffing and equipping the reserves. Poltorak said his ministry signed more than Hr 1 billion worth of contracts for supply of weapons and military equipment in the past week alone.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said on Nov. 11 that Grad multiple rocket launchers had been observed in and around Donetsk, while 32 Russian tanks, 16 howitzers and 30 military trucks with ammunition and personnel had been seen in Luhansk Oblast.

The ministry also said that six Grad systems, four Tiger armored personnel carriers, eight tanks and two self-propelled guns had been spotted near Novoazovsk in Donetsk Oblast. The Kyiv Post could not obtain independent verification of this information.

Russia also keeps moving its forces closer to the border, the ministry said. Forty military trucks and 20 artillery systems have been observed near the Dyakovo checkpoint on the border with Russia, and 30 howitzers have been moved from mainland Russia to Crimea, according to the ministry.

Ukraine’s security officials expect Russia to start what they call a “limited strike” to straighten out the front line – to Volnovakha, Debaltseve and the long-suffering Donetsk airport. In an unofficial conversation they say they expect Russia to attempt to create a land bridge to Crimea in the spring, attacking Odesa and Kharkiv oblasts first.

But most importantly, continued warfare across Ukraine plays into the Kremlin’s hands. It will continue to destabilize the country and increase the likelihood of further revolts and economic and political failure, one senior security official told the Kyiv Post on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to the media.

Kyiv Post+ is a public service offering special coverage of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the aftermath of the EuroMaidan Revolution. All articles, investigative reports and opinions published under this heading are free for republication during Ukraine’s time of national emergency. Kyiv Post+ is a collaboration of the Kyiv Post newspaper and the affiliated non-profit Media Development Foundation.

It certainly seems that the Russians have plenty of men and equipment at hand to pull off a significant military operation.

Dmytro Tymchuk, head of the Information Resistance group, said in his Nov. 11 blog that insurgent units in Luhansk, Krasnodon and other locations were in combat ready mode and were preparing for an offensive.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said on Nov. 12 that it had observed 630 people in military clothing crossing the Russian border at the Donetsk checkpoint, not to be confused with the city of Donetsk, mostly into Ukraine.

The OSCE also observed many dump trucks transporting coal from Luhansk oblast to Russia and a van with signs “cargo 200” (a Russian code used for “military personnel killed in action”) crossing from Russia to Ukraine and returning several hours later.

On Nov. 11, the OSCE said that it had observed a convoy of 43 unmarked green military trucks moving in the direction of the center of Donetsk. Five of the trucks were towing howitzer artillery pieces. Another five were towing partly-covered multi-launch rocket systems, the OSCE said.

Meanwhile, OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier said on Nov. 12 that shelling near Mariupol was becoming more intensive, which could imply that an offensive by insurgents in this area was a possibility.

NATO has also noticed the preparations. The alliance’s supreme commander in Europe, Philip Breedlove, said on Nov. 11 that he was “concerned about the increased movement” of armored weapons and other military equipment into eastern Ukraine.

He also said that eight Russian battalions remained on Russia’s border with Ukraine, and that Moscow was moving forces capable of using nuclear weapons into Crimea.

Vladislav Seleznyov, a spokesman for the anti-terrorist operation’s headquarters, told the Kyiv Post that every day Russian military convoys were crossing the border and that separatist forces were constantly being redeployed.

Military expert Oleksiy Arestovych said up to three to four convoys with hundreds of units of military equipment crossed the border every day. He says the offensive can come any day.

“A restaurant has been booked, rings have been bought, dresses have been put on, what’s the probability of a wedding?” he joked.

He said that at least 5,000 Russian regular troops were already in the Donbas. Breedlove gave a lower estimate, saying there are at least 250 to 300 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.

Vyacheslav Tseluiko, an expert at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, disagreed with Arestovych, saying that separatists did not have sufficient resources. A full-scale Russian invasion is necessary for an offensive, he said.

Seleznyov said that rebels must have three times as many troops as the Ukrainian army to launch an offensive, but this is not the case. After all, they have been trying to seize Donetsk Airport for many months but have failed, he said.

Kyiv Post staff writer Oleg Sukhov can be reached at [email protected].