The protests in Kyiv don't look like an orange revolution but could constitute the implementation of a scenario of some Ukrainian leadership figures interested in ousting Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and changing the configuration of power in Ukraine, President of the Effective Politics Foundation Gleb Pavlovsky thinks.
“On the one hand, most of the participants in the protest actions are
quite peaceful people enraged by the Saturday beating of demonstrators
and the behavior of the Ukrainian authorities who lost their influence
after their maneuvering last autumn. On the other hand, there are forces
trying to fan the situation to a certain degree. But this does not look
very much like a revolution,” he said on Dec. 2.
In Pavlovsky’s opinion, part of the Ukrainian leadership who are
dissatisfied with Azarov may support the actions. “It is hard to tell
what the purpose of exacerbating the situation is. But as far as I
understand the blockade of the government compound must be secretly
supported by part of the Ukrainian leadership, the part that dislikes
Azarov. Azarov has many enemies in the country’s leadership,” he said.
In Pavlovsky’s opinion, President Viktor Yanukovych can have his own
political interests in the present situation. “Yanukovych has kept
Azarov for the very purpose of writing off all the sins to his Cabinet
and firing him at any moment. It is possible that it is going to happen
now,” he said.
A serious argument in favor of the opinion that the current situation
in Ukraine is not an orange revolution is that all protests are
concentrated in the capital city, the analyst said.
“I would not say that the president has fully lost control over the
developments. One should note support for Yanukovych by regional
councils in the east. And the unrest is mainly a process in Kyiv, so
far. The answer to the question about what is going to happen next is
simple. Everything depends on who succeeds in pacifying Kyiv and who
will be held responsible for the Saturday beating. In my opinion, the
question should be decided now and after that a new configuration of
power will probably be outlined,” Pavlovsky believes.
