The time for wooing is over.In recent weeks, Europe has been stepping up a hard line with Ukraine by insisting on the release of imprisoned opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Without her freedom, European leaders are sending the message to President Viktor Yanukovych that the EU will not be signing a political association agreement and free-trade pact with Ukraine at a summit in Lithuania on Nov. 28-29.German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle met with Yanukovych and his Ukrainian counterpart Leonid Kozhara on Oct. 10 to convey the European sentiment on Yanukovych’s imprisoned rival. Westerwelle told reporters that the talks, which lasted more than two hours, were “intensive.”
“President (Yanukovych) confirmed that he wants to find a solution on the Tymoshenko issue,” Kozhara said at a press briefing following the meeting.
The former prime minister and Orange Revolution leader is currently serving a seven-year prison term for abuse of office. Her case is widely viewed in Russia and the West as politically motivated.
Westerwelle, who is in his last weeks as German foreign minister after his party lost in recent elections, previously visited Ukraine on June 21. During that trip, he offered to bring Tymoshenko to Berlin for medical treatment. Yanukovych has since said there is no legal basis for doing it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is believed to be insistent on Tymoshenko’s release as a precondition for her support.
The idea to send Tymoshenko, who suffers from a spinal hernia and intense pain in her back, to Berlin-based Charite clinic emerged more than a year ago.
On Oct. 4, the European envoy team of former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and former European Parliament President Pat Cox went further, asking Yanukovych to pardon Tymoshenko so that she may be treated in Germany, Tymoshenko lawyer Serhiy Vlasenko said. Tymoshenko agreed to the proposed deal, and said she would not seek political asylum abroad, Vlasenko added at a press conference.
Tired of Yanukovych’s procrastination on the issue, the move was the European mediators way of “playing for keeps,” political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said.
Nicu Popescu, a senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies, said that the EU officials decided to take a firmer stance on the Tymoshenko issue in the past week after internal discussions among EU member states.
Since the beginning of September, Ukraine’s parliament has adopted a number of changes to move election, judiciary and other laws more in line with democratic standards insisted by the EU. Members also set the date for elections in five districts, where no deputies were elected in the 2012 elections due to irregularities, for Dec. 15, another EU requirement.
“Ukraine did do its homework to show the European Union its firm will to change the judicial system of the country and approach European norms,” said Alexander Rahr, a German political expert, adding that these steps have been acknowledged by Europe.
The EU has repeatedly and firmly aired its desire to sign an association and free trade agreement with Ukraine in Vilnius on Nov. 28-29 to prove that its Eastern Partnership launched five years ago works. The last roadblock before signing is believed to be Tymoshenko’s continued imprisonment.
“Yulia Tymoshenko is such a big symbol in the whole game that, for a country like Germany, the continuation of her jail term in Ukraine will be a great reservation in signing of Association Agreement,” Rahr said.
Germany, the economic powerhouse of the EU, will play a significant role in deciding whether the 28-member bloc signs the association and free trade deal with Ukraine. Others skeptical about Ukraine are France, Finland and Netherlands, EU insiders say.
Speaking in New York on Sept. 25, Yanukovych said that the Tymoshenko issue would be settled before the meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council on Oct. 21, where Ukraine’s progress will be evaluated.
Yanukovych has insisted that Tymoshenko’s release would not be possible without changes to legislation, while various lawyers and lawmakers have said otherwise.
If she gets sent to Germany for medical treatment without being pardoned, the step may be enough for Europe, experts say. Such a move will also allow Yanukovych to keep his greatest political opponent out of the next presidential elections in 2015.
Andreas Umland, a German poliotical analyst and professor of political science at Kyiv Mohyla Academy, believes Tymoshenko should be freed in October “in order for the EU to prepare the documents for the Association Agreement to be signed in November,” while Fesenko and Rahr think the release will happen closer to the summit dates.
In any case, Yanukovych will not be allowed to take a pass on this issue, it appears, even though Kozhara told a business forum this week that he hopes the EU will sign the agreement even if Tymoshenko remains in prison.
There are fears, however, that a summit without a signature will harm both the EU and Ukraine. Bruce Jackson, an American political strategist, said on Oct. 2 that it would represent a defeat to Russia in the “war of soft powers.” However, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a European Parliament member and the Eastern Partnership vice chairman, said the EU is not budging.
“Yes, that means that Yulia Tymoshenko must be freed.”
Kyiv Post editor Christopher J. Miller and staff writer Oksana Grytsenko can be reached at [email protected] and [email protected].
