With less than two years until Ukraine elects another president, polls show President Viktor Yanukovych’s approval ratings stagnating while his rivals catch up. In particular, Vitali Klitschko, Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR) party leader, is fast gaining on the incumbent.
Moreover,
the joint rating of the opposition is more than double that of the
president in either of the polls, and the gap is getting wider.
Findings
from an April nationwide survey conducted by think tank Razumkov
Center indicate Yanukovych would get 18.3 percent of votes if the
elections were held next week, which is 2.4 percent less than what he
received in March.
Yanukovych’s
approval rating went from 17 in May 2011 to 13 percent in December
2011 before bouncing back in April this year.
Klitschko
is close behind with 13.5 percent of votes, up from just 5 percent in
December 2011.
Imprisoned
former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would receive some 10 percent
of the vote, according to Razumkov’s findings.
Meanwhile,
Batkivshchyna faction leader Arseniy Yatseniuk and ultra-nationalist
Svoboda party leader Oleh Tiahnybok would garner 6.4 and 4.6 percent,
respectively.
Market
researcher GfK Ukraine had similar findings. Its April poll shows
Klitschko’s rating has increased by 6 percent since March and now
is at par with Yanukovych, as both would get 16 percent of votes in
the first of two voting rounds. The poll has Tymoshenko receiving
nine percent of votes, while Yatseniuk and Tiahnybok received less –
5 and 3 percent, respectively.
Moreover,
Klitschko appears to be the clear winner in the second round of
elections. A total of 38 percent of respondents would cast their
votes for him and only 19 percent of those surveyed would vote for
Yanukovych, according to GfK Ukraine’s findings.
Yet political analysts warn that it’s too early to talk about the potential results of the 2015 election. “Of course, Klitschko has high chances to get to the second round of elections and win over Yanukovych. But it’s too early to give any predictions on the final results,” says Oleksyi Haran, the scientific director of the School of Political Analysis at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
“From what we can see now, authorities are trying to increase the rating of Svoboda party as they hold the anti-fascist rally (in Kyiv on May 18), because it will be much easier for Yanukovych to sidestep Tiahnybok than Klitschko in the second round of elections,” Haran adds.
The public’s choices for members of parliament mirror the presidential elections trend, with UDAR party overtaking the pro-presidential Party of Regions, according to the GfK survey. If parliamentary elections took place soon 17 percent would vote in favor of UDAR, while the Regions Party would get 16 percent of votes. Moreover, UDAR’s rating has improved by 3 percent since March, while public support for the ruling Party of Regions remained unchanged.
Less notably, Batkivshchyna faction would get 11 percent, 2 percent less than it got in March, while Svoboda would receive 8 percent, 2 percent more than in March.
The
Razumkov survey polled 2,010 respondents over the age of 18. A
thousand Ukrainians over the age of 16 were surveyed by GfK Ukraine.
Ukraine will hold presidential elections in 2015.
Kyiv
Post staff writer Anastasia Forina can be reached at
[email protected]
