President Viktor Yanukovych appears to be inching closer to a deal with the less militant wing in the opposition to make the amnesty law work, and even try to form a broad coalition government next week.
The amnesty law might work after all
Both sides made small steps towards
each other on Feb. 14 as the general prosecutor announced that all
234 protesters who had been detained across Ukraine have now been
released under house arrest for the next two months.
Although members of the opposition said
that they will cross check the lists of detainees, the Council of
Maidan released a statement saying protesters were ready to
partially unblock Hrushevskoho Street in Kyiv, the site of deadly
clashes between the protesters and the police on Jan. 19-22.
The protesters said they are making the
gesture to comply with the amnesty law, approved last month. The law
specified that in order for detainees to receive full amnesty and their
criminal record erased, Hrushevskoho Street, as well as government
buildings across the country, have to be freed as the first step. The
deadline for implementation of this step runs out on Feb. 17.
“Given the authorities have met
the demands of Maidan to release the hostages, the Council of the
Maidan all-Ukrainian Association considers it possible to fulfill the
requirements of the law of Ukraine on measures to eliminate the
negative aftermath and prevent persecution and punishment of persons
involved in incidents during peaceful protest rallies, which will
prevent a military scenario,” the protesters’ statement said.
But the progress remains very fragile,
however. Andriy Tarasenko, deputy head of the Right Sector, one of
the most militant groups on EuroMaidan, warned that although his
organization has withdrawn from Hrushevskoho, it’s quick and easy to
return there.
At the same time, Svoboda Party
indicated that they might consider freeing Kyiv city hall, the
last of the government buildings still controlled by the opposition.
Svoboda’s parliament member Andriy Ilyenko said on Feb. 13 that city hall will be freed if the Council of Maidan takes a decision to
do so.
“Svoboda is a very disciplined
political force that will only execute the joint decisions of Maidan.
In other words, it will has not and will not take any separate
actions or decisions,” he told Ukrainska Pravda.
There are skeptics that freeing the
City Hall would be that simple, though. “I don’t see a mechanism
how people can just be told to leave, and they will,” says Andriy
Strannikov, a member of city council from Ukrainian Democratic
Alliance for Reform (UDAR) party, who was commandant of the building
for all of December.
However, others suggested that both
sides will continue to make baby steps towards each other to make the
amnesty deal work, like free up Hrushevskoho Street 500 meters at a
time.
Unites States and European Union ambassadors had a meeting
with the general prosecutor on Feb.14 to discuss further steps
towards an amnesty that have to be made by the prosecutor under the
amnesty law. U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt confirmed that a deal is in
the works, but could not provide details.
A coalition government?
There are signs coming in that there is
more than just an amnesty deal being discussed.
The parties might be
discussing formation of a coalition government with Batkivshchyna
leader Arseniy Yatseniuk at the helm. Yanukovych and Yatseniuk met
earlier this week, and spoke for many hours, two independent sources
on both sides confirmed.
Last month, Yatseniuk turned down a
presidential offer of prime minister’s seat, saying it makes no sense
to run a government as long as the president has broad powers. Both
the president and his loyal Party of Regions have indicated that they
are not prepared to return to the 2004 Constitution that curbs
presidential powers. But the same aide said there is a law under
discussion that might lay out clear division of power.
Yatseniuk traveled to see Yulia
Tymoshenko in her prison hospital in Kharkiv on Feb. 12, and said
afterwards that the opposition is “prepared to take full
responsibility for the country and expects a public response about
the renewal of balance of power, formation of an oppositional
government of people’s trust and support by the parliament of a clear
plan of actions by the opposition.”
But
both sides have radical groups that are highly unlikely to support
any type of broad coalition. One indication of that came from the
Party of Regions on Feb. 13. Presidential adviser Hanna Herman told
Kyiv Post that the party’s extreme block started collecting
signatures against this idea to submit to the president. She also
said that the Regions might support Deputy Prime Minister Yuriy Boyko
for prime minister.
But
some analysts say that the Regions might simply be trying to make
sure that Boyko gets a high post in the next government, such as
deputy prime minister in charge of the energy sector, and that
negotiations about the issue are well underway. The opposition pushes
for control over most of the economy-related ministries, as well as
for the interior and justice ministry, which are now held by close
presidential allies.
“A deal like that would be a
get-out-of-jail-free card for Yulia (Tymoshenko),” says Timothy
Ash, a senior analyst at London-based Standard Bank, who watches
Ukraine very closely. He also thinks that Tymoshenko’s release at
this stage would offer the prospect of further splitting the
opposition.
Opposition have already split over
potential coalitions with Yanukovych. Leader of UDAR Vitali Klitschko
and senior members of his party have repeatedly said they would not
take any jobs in such a government.
Kyiv Post deputy chief editor Katya Gorchinskaya can be reached at [email protected]
