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Tigipko gains momentum in presidential campaign
Dec. 4, 2009, 12:18 a.m. | Politics — by Katya Gorchinskaya
Voters may be warming up to Sergiy Tigipko, a fit millionaire who graces the current cover of Men’s Health magazine. A poll puts him in third place, and he is talked about as a potential prime minister.
© Oleksiy Boyko
He probably won’t be the next president of Ukraine. But Sergiy Tigipko’s chances of becoming a prime minister soon are growing along with his popularity among voters in the Jan. 17 presidential race. He has rocketed to third place in a recent poll, though he is still far below front-runners Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and ex-Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych.
Plus, at 49, Tigipko looks good enough to be featured on the cover of Men’s Health magazine (December edition). Such publicity never hurts.
In an interview with the Kyiv Post, Tigipko said that – should he not win the presidency – he expects the next president to offer him a job, perhaps as prime minister. “Even if I decide not to support either one of them, they will still be making proposals,” Tigipko said. “The question is whether I will be willing to [work with them] in the conditions they suggest. I don’t have great desire to work with either one.”
Having worked as a deputy prime minister, a minister, a national bank chief, and a lawmaker, Tigipko is not a new face. But after taking a five-year break from politics to build up a banking empire which he then sold for an estimated $1 billion, voters seem to regard him as a fresh choice.
One November poll, conducted by FOM-Ukraine, showed that Tigipko has moved up to the third spot in the presidential race with 7.4 percent support. He squeezed former Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk, who currently has the support of only 4.5 percent of those polled in mid-November. The poll was conducted among 1,000 city residents. He ranks a lot lower in national polls, however. Research and Branding nationwide poll released on Nov. 27 showed Tigipko had the support of 4.4 percent of the voters countrywide.
And, of course, none of the 18 candidates is polling within striking distance of Yanukovych and Tymoshenko.
Tigipko's recent surge suggests that people may have forgotten about his past, or have forgiven him. Tigipko, after all, chaired the presidential campaign in 2004 for Victor Yanukovych, who suffered a humiliating defeat after a fraud-marred vote was cancelled by the Orange Revolution and then the Ukrainian Supreme Court.
Tigipko has, indeed, worked with both front-runners. Besides his work with Yanukovych, Tigipko also chaired a business advisory council for Tymoshenko’s government between March 2008 and July 2009.
Yanukovych has already indicated that he is ready to consider both Tigipko and the other younger face of the presidential campaign, Yatseniuk, as potential employees in case he wins the presidency in the Jan. 17 election. “I am convinced that after the presidential election both Tigipko and Yatseniuk, and many, many other politicians, statesmen, will take a worthy place for serving our state. There will be enough work for everyone,” Yanukovych said on Nov. 25.
Tigipko is open to considering any offers. He plans to run in every election for at least the next five years, he said. To strengthen his position, he once again struck an alliance with the Labor Party, which he headed from 2000-2005. He was once again elected to lead the party on Nov. 28, which on the same day was renamed “Strong Ukraine,” echoing Tigipko’s promotion of himself as an energetic, physically fit leader.
Kost Bondarenko, head of the Gorshenin Institute consulting company, said that building a political party might be a better move for Tigipko than striving for an executive post in 2010, which is not likely to be long-lasting. “He would achieve much more if he concentrates on the party,” Bondarenko said.
But the “strong hand” image that he is cultivating does not convince everyone. Tigipko’s former allies from the Party of Regions say that his departure from the Yanukovych campaign 10 days after the second round of the rigged election on Nov. 21, 2004, show different traits. Hanna Herman, an outspoken Regions deputy, said she had “seen Tigipko run from the headquarters of Yanukovych after the second round of the presidential election.”
Tigipko said he quit in 2004 because the campaign “was already lost.” Looking back, he said that Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko and Yanukovych should have quit the race after the second round. “Falsifications took place in both camps. It would be fair if fraud from both sides had been recognized and both left,” he told the Kyiv Post.
Tigipko, however, is not enamored with either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko. “They have both been prime ministers,” he said. “I did not notice any complex strategy from either one of them; no steps towards democratization or market economy.”
Tigipko’s solution? Hire international consultants to develop strategies on every key issue that is needed to revive the country’s economy and raise living standards. Other ideas are long overdue, but also promised by others, such as hiring younger, better qualified managers to run ministries and other government agencies. “There are many exceptionally smart young people, who are working in the national bank, the Finance Ministry and other state agencies in [secondary] roles,” he said.
Tigipko joins most businesses in saying that simplification of licensing laws and cancellation of the value added tax are needed to curb corruption and improve the investment climate. Tax cuts, he said, could pull Ukraine’s economy out of the shadows.
But some economists say Tigipko’s economic program is populist, and that it would not achieve the desired effects. “His program suggests a series of new solutions, but fails to analyze the side effects and assess the economic risks,” said Mykhaylo Salnyklov, senior researcher at the Kyiv Economic Institute at the Kyiv School of Economics.
He doesn’t shy from some daring stands. Tigipko suggests changing the constitution through a public referendum to give more powers to the president. He also says prostitution in Ukraine should be legalized.
Of the 18 presidential candidates, Tigipko has also declared the biggest fortune. He had an income of Hr 20 million last year (about $2.5 million), and told the Kyiv Post he has spent roughly the same amount on his presidential campaign so far. “I will spend as much as I need,” he said. “This is my own money.”
And he’s got a lot of it. The Russian-language Korrespondent magazine estimated his fortune at $369 million in 2009. Tigipko first struck it rich in the early 1990s, when he built up Privatbank from scratch, turning it within years into one of Ukraine’s largest banking institutions. After entering politics in the late 1990s, he sold his minority stake to bigger tycoons who provided the seed capital to establish the bank, the so-called Privat group led by billionaire Igor Kolomoisky and partners.
In the late 1990s, Tigipko served in government and was seen as one of two young and modern-thinking politicians in Ukraine who was in favor among Western friends. But he went back into business, establishing his own bank and insurance group, TAS, while serving as head of the National Bank of Ukraine, which triggered opponents to cry foul about a conflict of interest. Tigipko stepped out of politics in 2004, putting all of his efforts into building up TAS, and sold the group’s bank operation in 2007 to Swedbank for an estimated $1 billion.
Katya Gorchinskaya can be reached at gorchinskaya@kyivpost.com. Staff writer Nataliya Bugayova contributed to this story.
In an interview with the Kyiv Post, Tigipko said that – should he not win the presidency – he expects the next president to offer him a job, perhaps as prime minister. “Even if I decide not to support either one of them, they will still be making proposals,” Tigipko said. “The question is whether I will be willing to [work with them] in the conditions they suggest. I don’t have great desire to work with either one.”
Having worked as a deputy prime minister, a minister, a national bank chief, and a lawmaker, Tigipko is not a new face. But after taking a five-year break from politics to build up a banking empire which he then sold for an estimated $1 billion, voters seem to regard him as a fresh choice.
One November poll, conducted by FOM-Ukraine, showed that Tigipko has moved up to the third spot in the presidential race with 7.4 percent support. He squeezed former Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk, who currently has the support of only 4.5 percent of those polled in mid-November. The poll was conducted among 1,000 city residents. He ranks a lot lower in national polls, however. Research and Branding nationwide poll released on Nov. 27 showed Tigipko had the support of 4.4 percent of the voters countrywide.
And, of course, none of the 18 candidates is polling within striking distance of Yanukovych and Tymoshenko.
Tigipko's recent surge suggests that people may have forgotten about his past, or have forgiven him. Tigipko, after all, chaired the presidential campaign in 2004 for Victor Yanukovych, who suffered a humiliating defeat after a fraud-marred vote was cancelled by the Orange Revolution and then the Ukrainian Supreme Court.
Tigipko has, indeed, worked with both front-runners. Besides his work with Yanukovych, Tigipko also chaired a business advisory council for Tymoshenko’s government between March 2008 and July 2009.
Yanukovych has already indicated that he is ready to consider both Tigipko and the other younger face of the presidential campaign, Yatseniuk, as potential employees in case he wins the presidency in the Jan. 17 election. “I am convinced that after the presidential election both Tigipko and Yatseniuk, and many, many other politicians, statesmen, will take a worthy place for serving our state. There will be enough work for everyone,” Yanukovych said on Nov. 25.
Tigipko is open to considering any offers. He plans to run in every election for at least the next five years, he said. To strengthen his position, he once again struck an alliance with the Labor Party, which he headed from 2000-2005. He was once again elected to lead the party on Nov. 28, which on the same day was renamed “Strong Ukraine,” echoing Tigipko’s promotion of himself as an energetic, physically fit leader.
Kost Bondarenko, head of the Gorshenin Institute consulting company, said that building a political party might be a better move for Tigipko than striving for an executive post in 2010, which is not likely to be long-lasting. “He would achieve much more if he concentrates on the party,” Bondarenko said.
But the “strong hand” image that he is cultivating does not convince everyone. Tigipko’s former allies from the Party of Regions say that his departure from the Yanukovych campaign 10 days after the second round of the rigged election on Nov. 21, 2004, show different traits. Hanna Herman, an outspoken Regions deputy, said she had “seen Tigipko run from the headquarters of Yanukovych after the second round of the presidential election.”
Tigipko said he quit in 2004 because the campaign “was already lost.” Looking back, he said that Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko and Yanukovych should have quit the race after the second round. “Falsifications took place in both camps. It would be fair if fraud from both sides had been recognized and both left,” he told the Kyiv Post.
Tigipko, however, is not enamored with either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko. “They have both been prime ministers,” he said. “I did not notice any complex strategy from either one of them; no steps towards democratization or market economy.”
Tigipko’s solution? Hire international consultants to develop strategies on every key issue that is needed to revive the country’s economy and raise living standards. Other ideas are long overdue, but also promised by others, such as hiring younger, better qualified managers to run ministries and other government agencies. “There are many exceptionally smart young people, who are working in the national bank, the Finance Ministry and other state agencies in [secondary] roles,” he said.
Tigipko joins most businesses in saying that simplification of licensing laws and cancellation of the value added tax are needed to curb corruption and improve the investment climate. Tax cuts, he said, could pull Ukraine’s economy out of the shadows.
But some economists say Tigipko’s economic program is populist, and that it would not achieve the desired effects. “His program suggests a series of new solutions, but fails to analyze the side effects and assess the economic risks,” said Mykhaylo Salnyklov, senior researcher at the Kyiv Economic Institute at the Kyiv School of Economics.
He doesn’t shy from some daring stands. Tigipko suggests changing the constitution through a public referendum to give more powers to the president. He also says prostitution in Ukraine should be legalized.
Of the 18 presidential candidates, Tigipko has also declared the biggest fortune. He had an income of Hr 20 million last year (about $2.5 million), and told the Kyiv Post he has spent roughly the same amount on his presidential campaign so far. “I will spend as much as I need,” he said. “This is my own money.”
And he’s got a lot of it. The Russian-language Korrespondent magazine estimated his fortune at $369 million in 2009. Tigipko first struck it rich in the early 1990s, when he built up Privatbank from scratch, turning it within years into one of Ukraine’s largest banking institutions. After entering politics in the late 1990s, he sold his minority stake to bigger tycoons who provided the seed capital to establish the bank, the so-called Privat group led by billionaire Igor Kolomoisky and partners.
In the late 1990s, Tigipko served in government and was seen as one of two young and modern-thinking politicians in Ukraine who was in favor among Western friends. But he went back into business, establishing his own bank and insurance group, TAS, while serving as head of the National Bank of Ukraine, which triggered opponents to cry foul about a conflict of interest. Tigipko stepped out of politics in 2004, putting all of his efforts into building up TAS, and sold the group’s bank operation in 2007 to Swedbank for an estimated $1 billion.
Katya Gorchinskaya can be reached at gorchinskaya@kyivpost.com. Staff writer Nataliya Bugayova contributed to this story.
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There has been considerable speculation among analysts that Tigipko has cut a deal with Tymoshenko to take away as many votes as possible from Yanukovich, in return for getting the prime minister's job under a possible Tymoshenko presidency.
Last night on the TRK channel, Arseniy Yatseniuk said he believes that Tigipko may already be cooperating with Tymoshenko on the question of coordinated electoral committee (vote-counting) representation.
Interesting rumors cherkasy5.
I believe they could be possible.
But...we have also heard that Yats or Yush will be Yanu's PM.
Whatever happens, I'm not too fond of the idea of Tigipko being a major player in Ukrainian politics.
Where is his vote going to come from? Keep an eye on the 30 days to go polls. To secure a 15% swing requires catalytic and unprecedented shifts in public opinion. All of the votes for other minor candidates will evaporate. The undecided will rise up and offer the dubious banker whose policies do not instill confidence, 100% support. LOL get real. Maybe if Ukraine had a preferential voting system but it does not. It had a first past the post two round voting system. Only the two highest polling candidates can progress to the second round. Again he is 14% to 17% behind Yulia where do you think his votes will come from? he would have to be listed on around 15% in the next poll to have any chance of surviving the first round. Now I do not hear any serious analysts saying he is in with a chance. Look how long it took for the USA to elected a good President.
The whole presidential system is seriously left wanting. The presidential system has failed Ukraine. name one that has been any good? At a cost of one billion dollars how can anyone support it. It is obscene and immoral. The proposed parliamentary appointment option was a much better idea. More accountable and representational. Hopefully this will the last direct presidential election in Ukraine as Ukraine embraces a European parliamentary model putting an end to soviet style Presidential dictatorship
He is not 14-17 percent behind Tymo. More like 8-9 percent behind. The odds might not favor an upset, but it's possible. People on the street seem to have a very positive view of Tigipko right now.
What the 7% from a city based poll. Most people in Ukraine do not live in the city. Even at 7-8% that is still a long way from winning second place.
QUOTE:
One November poll, conducted by FOM-Ukraine, showed that Tigipko has moved up to the third spot in the presidential race with 7.4 percent support. He squeezed former Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk, who currently has the support of only 4.5 percent of those polled in mid-November.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 city residents.
He ranks a lot lower in national polls, however. Research and Branding nationwide poll released on Nov. 27 showed Tigipko had the support of 4.4 percent of the voters countrywide.
If he is not polling 15% in two weeks time he is out of contention. That's double the city poll nation wide.
Well said. I agree
The poll quoted has been left wanting. It was a phone poll of City dwellings and most certainly did not reflect reality. A recent poll by Research and Branging put Tigipko in fifth place on just 4.5% along side Lytvyn and behind Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk with 45 days to polling day Tigipko is too far behind to catch up.
Not necessarily. Tigipko put in another well-received nationally televised appearance on ICTV on Monday night, too recent to affect the latest polls. It is not inconceivable at all that Tigipko could reach 10 percent support later this month, and in that case, he would be a real threat to Tymoshenko's second round chances.
Quote:
He has rocketed to third place in a recent poll, though he is still far below front-runners Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and ex-Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych.
That says little about Yats. Is he in free fall?
Quote:
Tigipko, after all, chaired the presidential campaign in 2004 for Victor Yanukovych, who suffered a humiliating defeat after a fraud-marred vote was cancelled by the Orange Revolution and then the Ukrainian Supreme Court.
Now one has to wonder about Ukraine's voters that he has risen to 3rd place.
Gene you believe anything you read. 9Did You not resign before because of Tom's abuse? LOL I see your still there... LOL
The story tells a lot not by what it has said but what's missing.
QUOTE:
Tigipko is open to considering any offers. He plans to run in every election for at least the next five years, he said. To strengthen his position, he once again struck an alliance with the Labor Party, which he headed from 2000-2005.
QUOTE:
And, of course, none of the 18 candidates is polling within striking distance of Yanukovych and Tymoshenko.
And this one about the poll itself.. He is not in third place. Read it and think again.
QUOTE:
One November poll, conducted by FOM-Ukraine, showed that Tigipko has moved up to the third spot in the presidential race with 7.4 percent support. He squeezed former Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk, who currently has the support of only 4.5 percent of those polled in mid-November. The poll was conducted among 1,000 city residents. He ranks a lot lower in national polls, however. Research and Branding nationwide poll released on Nov. 27 showed Tigipko had the support of 4.4 percent of the voters countrywide.
Actually Guest, I never resigned.
Recently, I did leave the forum because I saw no point in discussing with people who refuse to look at the entire pix...plus...I got tired of the thugs. Life is good and who needs bullies in their lives? Sad that too many people tolerate the bullies.
Interesting how many asked me to come back...and who also had tired of abusive people.
Is that the best you can do Guest...who is afraid to respond to me without using your real name...by saying..."Gene you believe anything you read. 9Did You not resign before because of Tom's abuse?" What does that have to do with anything? Did you miss me?
And...you...Guest...do you ever read anything...and absorb it...if it criticizes Yush?
Tigipko is right now running the best campaign of anybody in the race, and he has the most momentum. He has enough time to rise well into double digits in the polls. Nobody should be saying that the race for the 1st 2 spots on Jan 17 is over. I am not an advocate of Tigipko but this is just the truth of the situation.
hello 45 days to go and he is at 4.5% some 15% points behind second place candidate Yulia Tymoshenko. Dream on.
The good thing about his campaign is that he is helping to oust Yushchenko.
The real issue is the office of the president and the need for further constitutional reform and Ukraine completing the transition form a soviet presidential system to a European parliamentary democracy. At a cost of one billion dollars the presidential elections is obscene and unjustified. Money that could be better spent elsewhere in Ukraine's economy.
Bad math. Tigipko is at 7 percent, and Tymoshenko is at 16 percent. And these polls are from 10 days ago. The gap could be as low as 5 percent by next week. Anything can happen.
Ukraine will continue to follow the path of leading democracies US, France, and Poland in using the presidential system. There will be no switch to a Parliamentary system, which clearly is undesirable for Ukraine at this time.
Where did you get the 7% from? He is listed at 4.5%. The 7% comes form a city poll or did you not read the article properly.
QUOTE:
One November poll, conducted by FOM-Ukraine, showed that Tigipko has moved up to the third spot in the presidential race with 7.4 percent support. He squeezed former Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk, who currently has the support of only 4.5 percent of those polled in mid-November.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 city residents.
He ranks a lot lower in national polls, however. Research and Branding nationwide poll released on Nov. 27 showed Tigipko had the support of 4.4 percent of the voters countrywide.
Look at all the other pollsters findings. Even at 7% he is still 9 to 10 percentage points behind Yulia. with less then 45 days to go.
"Now one has to wonder about Ukraine's voters that he (TiGypko) has risen to 3rd place".
Good One Gene.
You still have your TuTu?
Gene has spat the dummy and offered to resign, only to not resign and resign, so many times I have lost count.
As moderator of another Forum he stood buy and watched and encouraged Tomas abuse and insults on Anita and Angela it was disgusting. A direct attack on free speech and an attempt to silence Yushchenko's critics. Not to mention the corrupt election where gene was elected moderator. They banned his opposition from participating in the election. It get no more corrupt then that Gene, so much for your belief in democracy and fair elections. LOL
Why don't anyone ask what qualities this guy has to even think abt running 4 precidency - in any countr? The track record says all there is to say. No vote for this one - thanks!
A man who massed a fortune as a banker whilst being Chairman of the NBU. If that is not a conflict of interest what is? Yes he has more credibility then Yatseniuk but he can afford the spin doctors in what is quickly becoming a circus performance of the billionaires.
December 21 is the next big deadline. He would need a number of candidates to withdraw in his favour to have a chance of surviving the first round of voting and outpolling Yulia Tymoshenko. December 21 is the deadline for nomination withdrawals If his support base plus the value of those who withdraw in his favor is not at 15% or more then game over.
Tyhypko, Tymoshenko, Lazarenko and Kuchma are all members of the Dnirpreopetrovsk Mafia.
Remember who said," Tell me what kind of country to build and I'll do it." Kuchma right? Well, Tymoshenko repeated it not too long ago.
They're all about the money -- Lazarenko and Tymoshenko giving bribes for their joint gas business in the 1990s, Kuchma in his "piece" in a number of businesses like "Kuchmastar" and Tyhypko in Swedbank.
If Ukraine wants the Kuchma era to return, support Tymoshenko and her chief strategist Medvedchuk, Kuchma's and Kravchuk's #1 henchman -- not to mention Putin being the Godfather of his child.
When will Ukrainians wake up and open their eyes to the corruption?