MOSCOW - Support for President Vladimir Putin is sliding across Russia, and pressure for change is so widespread that a political crisis including violent clashes with protesters appears highly likely, a respected think-tank said on May 24.
Putin was elected comfortably to a third, six-year term as president in March, despite huge urban protests last winter against alleged election fraud and the monopoly on power that he and his United Russia party enjoy.
But the Centre for Strategic Research, which drafted a reform plan for Putin’s first term as president and predicted the anti-Putin rallies, said most of those who voted for Putin had done so for lack of a viable alternative.
The protests have largely been driven by an expanding middle class that feels increasingly unrepresented.
"The middle class of the largest cities is de facto lost for the authorities," CSR said in a new report, based on research with 52 focus groups across Russia representing a cross-section of society.
It said continuing clashes were a sign that more radical protesters were now setting the pace along with hawks in the government, and that the worst-case scenario was also the likeliest.
"Our research shows that the crisis has become irreversible, regardless of the scenarios of its further development," it said. "Maintaining political stability, let alone a return to the pre-crisis status quo, is no longer possible …
"At this stage we view the probability of such a scenario as high because the escalation of violence has already started. As it spreads, the return of the protests to a peaceful course is becoming less and less likely."
AFTER PUTIN
CSR also said it expected Russia’s rulers to emphasise a hawkish, anti-Western foreign policy as the "most substantial anchor that can prevent a further slide in public support".
The report, entitled "Society and authorities at a time of political crisis", had been eagerly awaited by a political elite whose members are starting to position themselves for a post-Putin era.
The research said that, although the Moscow protesters had focused on political reform while the rest of the country was more concerned with healthcare, housing, utilities and education, the demand for change was a unifying factor.
"Today there is a demand for serious change in the country. This demand unites all the urban population groups that were observed," the research said.
CSR nevertheless expected the protests in Moscow to play a decisive role, and said an early sign of crisis was likely to be the departure of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s protege and his choice as president for the last four years.
"A lack of visible progress in areas of most concern for the population can lead to a fast erosion of already weak support for Dmitry Medvedev’s government and makes it probable that the cabinet will step down early," the report said.
It said many politicians were looking to former finance minister Alexei Kudrin to take a more active role in leading the growing nationwide opposition to Putin.
The bespectacled economist, who fell out with Putin over his pre-election spending pledges, created a task force last month that some analysts see as a shadow cabinet able to step in if Medvedev’s government resigns.
