You're reading: Russia: Syrians should decide Assad’s fate

MOSCOW - Russia said on June 28 international talks on the Syria conflict should pursue a formula for a political transition but must not decide whether President Bashar al-Assad is barred from a possible national unity government.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said talks in Geneva on
June 30 to discuss U.N. envoy Kofi Annan’s transition plan
would set conditions for the start of a national dialogue among
all Syrians, but “not predetermine its contents”.

Asked at a news briefing if Assad’s exclusion from power
would be acceptable to his staunch ally Russia, Lavrov said the
configuration of a new Syrian government should rest with its
people and not imposed by outside powers.

“We do not support and cannot support any kind of meddling
from outside, the imposition of recipes. This applies to the
fate of Bashar al-Assad. It, this fate, must be decided by the
Syrians, the Syrian people themselves,” Lavrov told a briefing.

His comments appeared to open the door to Russia accepting a
departure of Syria’s authoritarian leader if this were agreed by
all sides involved in transition negotiations aimed at ending
the 16-month-old conflict in Syria.

Syrian opposition groups said they would reject Annan’s plan
unless it explicitly required Assad to step down before a unity
government is formed.

Diplomatic sources at the United Nations said the proposal
does not stipulate Assad’s resignation, although it does say the
unity government could not include figures who jeopardise
stability.

U.N. diplomats said on June 27 Russia and other powers
have backed the plan for a Syrian national unity cabinet that
could include government and opposition members, although
Assad’s role under such a plan remains unclear.

But, speaking in Moscow, Lavrov said Annan’s proposal was
not, however, a final document, and he expressed dismay that it
had been leaked to the media ahead of the Geneva talks.

CHANCE FOR DIALOGUE

Lavrov hailed the talks as a chance to launch a political
dialogue in Syria but criticised the exclusion of regional power
Iran from the meeting bringing together the U.N. Security
Council permanent members and Middle East governments.

“Undoubtedly Iran is an influential player in this whole
situation … I consider it a mistake to leave it out,” Lavrov
said after meeting Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafik Abdesslem.

He accused Washington of indulging in double standards by
balking at including envoys from Tehran, its arch-enemy – and a
close ally of Assad – since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Annan has said that Iran should attend the Geneva talks, but
diplomats say that the United States, Saudi Arabia and other
countries objected.

Moscow has used its U.N. Security Council vote to blunt
efforts to condemn Assad and secure his exit, shielding Damascus
from harsher sanctions over his military crackdown on the
uprising against 42 years of rule by his family.

If Assad bowed out, Russia could lose its firmest foothold
in the Middle East. Syria buys arms from Russia worth billions
of dollars and the Russian navy uses the Tartus naval base, its
only permanent warm-water port outside the former Soviet Union.

Moscow has ruled out military intervention in Syria after it
condemned NATO air strikes, made possible by its abstention from
a Security Council vote, that helped Libyan rebels oust Muammar
Gaddafi in another popular Arab uprising last year.

Lavrov reiterated those warnings on June 28, saying the
consequences of intervention in Syria would be “catastrophic.”

Despite its unbending rhetoric, analysts said, Moscow was
inching toward lending support to Assad’s transition from power
as international pressure on the Syrian leader builds.

“The Russian position started to gradually transform quite a
bit several weeks ago,” Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal
Russia in Global Affairs, told Reuters.

“I think Russia’s final position will be a government
without Assad but which will include representatives of the
current regime, representatives of minorities, and guarantees
for Assad and his family’s personal security,” he said.

Andrey Baklitskiy of the Centre for Policy Studies said
Moscow could step in to broker a deal for Assad to safely leave
Syria. “That could then open doors for transition,” he said.

“The Russian authorities are everything but stupid, and why
would they support somebody who is losing power?”