MOSCOW, Russia – The Kyiv Post recently sat down with Denis Volkov, a researcher and head of the development department at the Levada Center, Russia’s best-known independent pollster and think tank, where he has worked since 2007.
He spoke
about public support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policies and
attitudes towards Ukraine and the war in the east, and about propaganda.
KP: Putin`s
rating recently reached 89 percent, according to your poll results. Does it
mean that the majority of Russians support his policy in Ukraine entirely?
DV: No, that`s not correct. There are different
indexes. The overall level of approval has definitely risen after the annexation
of Crimea (in March 2014). The main reason is Russians have always, from the
beginning of 1990s, thought that Crimea should belong to Russia.
People
started to for the first time since the collapse of the USSR gained an offing
to feel that they live in a great power. We showed our teeth, we defended our
interests – that`s how people in Russia understood what had happened. With a
“little” help of Russian media, of course.
But when
talking about the situation in eastern Ukraine, the people`s mood changed
dramatically. In March 2014, 48 percent of Russians were for annexing the Donbas,
and about 75 percent for militarily invading it. Now the numbers are 15 percent
and 45 percent, respectively. At the same time, most of the people still think
that Donbas should be independent from Ukraine, and that Russia should give it
aid – this has not changed.
By the way,
only one third of Russians are loyal to the idea that their relative might go
to war in Donbas.
Denis Volkov of the Levada Center in Moscow, Russia. (Courtesy)
KP: In general, what do Russians think about
the conflict between our two countries?
DV: It is important to understand, that the
majority of people in Russia simply do not see this war. Only 30 percent of
Russians agree that their country is at war with Ukraine. At the same time, 70
percent of Ukrainians think so, according to the findings of the Kyiv International
Institute of Sociology.
According
to our polls results, 45 percent of Russians say that there are Russians
fighting in Donbas, but all of them are volunteers or mercenaries. In our focus
groups, people simply rejected talk about it. When asked directly, 38 percent
told us, that “no matter what, if there are Russian troops in Ukraine or not,
we should deny it anyway.”
Russia`s
interference first in Crimea, then in Donbas, is regarded by Russians as “helping
their brothers” after they “voted” for separating from Ukraine. The Maidan,
which was the starting point of the conflict, was presented by Russian media as
inspired by the West first of all. So, Russia in this crisis is seen as a
victim that had to react.
As it was
with Georgia in 2008, Ukraine is not seen by Russians as an independent side of
a conflict. When asked, “What prevents the crisis from being resolved?” most of
them say that it is the position of the Western countries. Only 20 percent
think that Ukrainian leaders are the ones to blame, and 5-7 percent blame
Russian leaders.
KP: How has Russians` attitude toward Ukraine
changed during the crisis?
DV: Practically, it hasn`t changed at all. Russians
perceive the regime in Kyiv as hostile, as a puppet of the West. But their
attitude towards Ukrainians themselves became slightly worse – less than toward
Europeans or Americans. The majority of Russians still continue to think that
Ukraine should be treated as a partner.
And it comes
to a dramatic contrast with how the mood of Ukrainians has changed. Before the
war, Ukrainians treated Russia kinder than Russians treated Ukraine. Now it is the
other way round. Ukrainians, as we see, have a huge trauma of being at war with
the nation they considered to be brotherly. In Russian society we see nothing like
this. In the backs of their minds, people have feeling that something went
wrong, but they do not go any further.
And, as I
think, this dramatic misunderstanding is one of the main obstacles for building
normal relations in the future.
KP: The Ukrainian topic remains one of the main
– if not the main – in Russian media for more than a year and a half. Can we
say that people are already tired of it?
DV: No, we still can`t. More than half of Russians
watch what the TV shows about Ukraine closely. It stays important for them, but
not that important as in 2014. Last year, of the 10 main events each month,
according to our polls, six to eight were coming from Ukraine. Now there are
only three to four. But the interest still remains.
KP: How much are Russians interested in the
Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 catastrophe? Who, as they think, are the ones to
blame for this tragedy?
DV: Russians as a whole don`t care. The majority
of them think that it is the Ukrainian army that did it. About 10 percent think
that the West is responsible. The Russian media look at the tragedy as grounds
for weakening and discrediting Russia, first of all.
KP: What do you think will happen if the international
report get published and says that Donbas separatists and, indirectly, Russia
are the ones to blame, will it change the people`s mood in Russia?
DV: I think no. Not so many people will know it.
And again, Russian propaganda will say: “We are innocent, they just want to slander
us once again.” Something like that.
As a whole,
it will make no difference in the people`s mood.
Kyiv Post intern Oleg Sokolenko can be reached
at [email protected].
