TIRASPOL - The veteran leader of Moldova's breakaway Transdniestria region appeared well in front after a Sunday election in which he ran for a fifth term against the wishes of his former patron Russia.
But Igor Smirnov, a 70-year-old Russian who has ruled the territory of half-a-million people for 20 years, seemed likely to fall short of the 50 per cent required to avoid a second round of voting, an exit poll showed.
The poll, by the Vektor agency, gave Smirnov 47.38 percent of the vote, while Moscow-backed parliamentary speaker Anatoly Kaminsky was in third place with 22.6 percent, surprising many analysts who believed his endorsement by the Kremlin made him the strongest challenger.
Instead, Yevgeny Shevchuk, a former parliamentary speaker who was mooted as a possible successor to Smirnov a year ago but whose star seemed to have faded, was in second place on 23.2 percent, the exit poll showed.
Preliminary results were expected on Monday at 0800 gmt.
A ragged strip of land in central Europe running almost the length of Moldova’s eastern border with Ukraine, Transdniestria is the most westward of Europe’s post-Soviet "frozen conflicts".
Unrecognised internationally, the territory has been in limbo, defying a solution to its status, since its Russian-speaking majority declared independence and broke with the Moldovan central government after a brief war in 1992.
Smirnov billed himself during his campaign as the most reliable defender of its independence and its aspiration of uniting with Russia.
Playing up suspicions among the population that Moldova will one day unite with neighbouring Romania, with whom it shares a common language, Smirnov presented himself as the sole guarantor against a "sell-out" of sovereignty.
Critics in the international community see him as an obstacle to success in talks aimed at finding a settlement to the status of the territory which Moldovan authorities and European Union officials say has become a "black hole" of arms, drugs and people-trafficking.
Russia, whose big-power role is crucial since it supplies the region with free gas and has 1,500 troops there, has kept Smirnov at arms length and may now have tired of his delaying tactics in talks which also involve the United States and EU.
The Kremlin has come under pressure from EU heavyweight Germany to put its shoulder behind efforts to find a solution.
Moscow had urged Smirnov to step aside in favour of Kaminsky, 61, whose own party is close to that of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia and who drew heavily on his ties with the Moscow ruling elite in his campaign.
Though he also portrayed himself as a defender of Transdniestrian "statehood" and special ties with Russia, he is widely seen as more likely to listen to alternative ideas and be ready for compromise at settlement talks.
But if the exit poll figures turn out to be correct, the second round will be fought between Smirnov and Shevchuk.
During his campaign Kaminsky criticised Smirnov for leading the region on a path of stagnation. Basic infrastructure such as roads, railways and telecommunications are collapsing, he said, and nepotism is rife in top administrative and business posts.
TIRASPOL, Moldova, Dec 11 (Reuters) – The veteran leader of Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region appeared well in front after a Sunday election in which he ran for a fifth term against the wishes of his former patron Russia.
But Igor Smirnov, a 70-year-old Russian who has ruled the territory of half-a-million people for 20 years, seemed likely to fall short of the 50 per cent required to avoid a second round of voting, an exit poll showed.
The poll, by the Vektor agency, gave Smirnov 47.38 percent of the vote, while Moscow-backed parliamentary speaker Anatoly Kaminsky was in third place with 22.6 percent, surprising many analysts who believed his endorsement by the Kremlin made him the strongest challenger.
Instead, Yevgeny Shevchuk, a former parliamentary speaker who was mooted as a possible successor to Smirnov a year ago but whose star seemed to have faded, was in second place on 23.2 percent, the exit poll showed.
Preliminary results were expected on Monday at 0800 gmt.
A ragged strip of land in central Europe running almost the length of Moldova’s eastern border with Ukraine, Transdniestria is the most westward of Europe’s post-Soviet "frozen conflicts".
Unrecognised internationally, the territory has been in limbo, defying a solution to its status, since its Russian-speaking majority declared independence and broke with the Moldovan central government after a brief war in 1992.
Smirnov billed himself during his campaign as the most reliable defender of its independence and its aspiration of uniting with Russia.
Playing up suspicions among the population that Moldova will one day unite with neighbouring Romania, with whom it shares a common language, Smirnov presented himself as the sole guarantor against a "sell-out" of sovereignty.
Critics in the international community see him as an obstacle to success in talks aimed at finding a settlement to the status of the territory which Moldovan authorities and European Union officials say has become a "black hole" of arms, drugs and people-trafficking.
Russia, whose big-power role is crucial since it supplies the region with free gas and has 1,500 troops there, has kept Smirnov at arms length and may now have tired of his delaying tactics in talks which also involve the United States and EU.
The Kremlin has come under pressure from EU heavyweight Germany to put its shoulder behind efforts to find a solution.
Moscow had urged Smirnov to step aside in favour of Kaminsky, 61, whose own party is close to that of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia and who drew heavily on his ties with the Moscow ruling elite in his campaign.
Though he also portrayed himself as a defender of Transdniestrian "statehood" and special ties with Russia, he is widely seen as more likely to listen to alternative ideas and be ready for compromise at settlement talks.
But if the exit poll figures turn out to be correct, the second round will be fought between Smirnov and Shevchuk.
During his campaign Kaminsky criticised Smirnov for leading the region on a path of stagnation. Basic infrastructure such as roads, railways and telecommunications are collapsing, he said, and nepotism is rife in top administrative and business posts.
RUSSIAN PRESSURE
It remains to be seen what pressure Moscow might bring to bear on Smirnov if he secures a fifth five-year term, though it has already hinted at possible economic repercussions.
Moldova regards Transdniestria as an integral part of its territory and has a big stake in the outcome of the vote.
Deadlock in parliament has kept Moldova without a full-time president for two years. It will make a fresh attempt to elect a head of state, which in Moldova is by parliamentary vote not by direct election of the people, on Dec. 16.
Signs of progress to a Transdniestrian settlement would help Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries but an aspirant to EU membership, register its presence internationally.
In the main town of Tiraspol, Anastasia Vyrlan, a mother accompanied by her daughter, said she had voted for Kaminsky.
"Smirnov has been running Transdniestria for 21 years and we can scarcely expect any changes for the better from him. We need a new leader with a good reputation with Russia. Everything depends on Russia, including a settlement in relations with Moldova, social protection, pension increases and maternity subsidies," she said.
Teacher Vera Yakovleva said she would vote for Smirnov as a guarantor for stability and backed his calls for international recognition for Transdniestria. "Voting for anyone else would be a betrayal of Igor Smirnov and those who were killed in 1992 defending us against the Moldovan occupiers".
Moldova and Transdniestria on Dec. 1 held their first official meeting in six years under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and involving envoys from Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the EU.
The next meeting is scheduled for next February.
It remains to be seen what pressure Moscow might bring to bear on Smirnov if he secures a fifth five-year term, though it has already hinted at possible economic repercussions.
Moldova regards Transdniestria as an integral part of its territory and has a big stake in the outcome of the vote.
Deadlock in parliament has kept Moldova without a full-time president for two years. It will make a fresh attempt to elect a head of state, which in Moldova is by parliamentary vote not by direct election of the people, on Dec. 16.
Signs of progress to a Transdniestrian settlement would help Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries but an aspirant to EU membership, register its presence internationally.
In the main town of Tiraspol, Anastasia Vyrlan, a mother accompanied by her daughter, said she had voted for Kaminsky.
"Smirnov has been running Transdniestria for 21 years and we can scarcely expect any changes for the better from him. We need a new leader with a good reputation with Russia. Everything depends on Russia, including a settlement in relations with Moldova, social protection, pension increases and maternity subsidies," she said.
Teacher Vera Yakovleva said she would vote for Smirnov as a guarantor for stability and backed his calls for international recognition for Transdniestria. "Voting for anyone else would be a betrayal of Igor Smirnov and those who were killed in 1992 defending us against the Moldovan occupiers".
Moldova and Transdniestria on Dec. 1 held their first official meeting in six years under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and involving envoys from Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the EU.
The next meeting is scheduled for next February.
