You're reading: West presses Belarus’s Lukashenko on opposition

MINSK, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Soaring prices in the ex-Soviet republic of Belarus seem bound to dent the popularity of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, but he has yet to show he is ready to relax his tight grip in the country to win Western financial aid.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994 and once described as Europe’s last dictator by the last U.S. administration, is still holding key opposition figures in jail following a crackdown on a mass street rally against his re-election last December.

But since then, a currency crisis — caused mainly by pre-election overspending on public sector wages — has drained state coffers of dollars, triggered two big devaluations of the national currency and pushed up prices for staples such as meat, milk and bread.

Petrol, public transport and cigarettes have all shot up in price, too. And many people expect home heating to become more expensive this winter.

This has undermined the policies of Lukashenko, a populist leader who early in his rule asked people: "Do you want democracy or sausage on your table?"

"The social contract he had with society — relatively good living standards in exchange for their political passivity — has been shaken," said Jana Kobzova of the London-based European Council on Foreign Relations.

While there are no overt signs of discontent among factory workers, Lukashenko’s core support base, the crisis has emboldened the harassed liberal and nationalist opposition.

Young intellectuals, outside the opposition mainstream, are promising a new season of public ‘silent protests’ organized through social networking sites. Some Lukashenko opponents foresee opposition groups joining forces.

Against that background, the European Union — Belarus’s biggest trading partner after Russia and a huge market for vital exports such as refined oil products, potash and textiles — is now seeking to increase pressure on Lukashenko.

The bloc was caught by surprise by the crackdown last December, which ran counter to EU expectations for the election.

Conscious now of opposition claims that it has been naïve in dealing with Lukashenko in the past, the bloc is telling him that if he wants to end his isolation, all political prisoners must be freed and allowed to continue their opposition activity.

"The release and rehabilitation of political prisoners is a precondition for resuming dialogue," the EU’s new representative in Belarus, Maira Mora, told a Minsk news conference, while emphasising there would be no "trade-off" for EU aid.

CONCESSIONS

How far will Lukashenko now go in concessions to the West? Will flickerings of discontent at home turn into something bigger to threaten his rule?

For years, he has successfully played off Russia, which provides Belarus with oil and gas and is its biggest single consumer of its exports, against the EU to win credits and financial aid.

On one side, he has been able to take advantage of Russia’s fear that an alienated Belarus, which has borders with EU members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, might drift into the Western camp.

Likewise, the EU has an interest that the country of 9.5 million does not sell out its economy, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy, to Moscow.

Lukashenko has to find $3 billion by the end of the year to prop up his heavily indebted economy, most economists say. Even then, Belarus faces heavy repayment schedules for 2012 and 2013 on an accumulation of external debt.

Some believe Belarus might raise what it needs for this year if he sells off a chunk of its gas transit system to Russia, bringing in about $2.5 billion and releasing a new $400 million slice of credit from a Russian-led bailout fund.

Then again the International Monetary Fund, from which Belarus is seeking up to $8 billion in credit, may throw a lifeline if he begins to implement real and structural reform of an economy which is still state-run, for the most part, along old Soviet lines.

Lukashenko and more than 150 members of his ‘inner circle’ of associates are already under travel sanctions by the EU and the United States because of the crackdown on the opposition. New restrictions have been imposed on some Belarussian firms because of the continued detention of political prisoners.

The opposition, across the board, is urging the West to take a tougher line with Lukashenko.

"The West should just stop all this fuss around Lukashenko," Stanislav Shushkevich, first president of independent Belarus, told Reuters in an interview.

"If the West continues to give credit because they are afraid of Belarus going to Russia we will be here with him for a long, long time," he said.

"For me it is comical to hear European officials say that if they impose economic sanctions then the people will suffer. Look how they are suffering now," said Iryna Khalip, whose husband, Andrei Sannikov, ran against Lukashenko in December and is still in jail.

"If normal sanctions are imposed, everything would be settled in a day … With Lukashenko one can speak only from a position of strength," she said in a separate interview with Reuters.

RELEASE NEXT MONTH?

The opposition expects Sannikov and two opposition politicians who also ran against Lukashenko in last December’s election to be released early next month.

But they say it remains to be seen whether the Belarus authorities allow them, and other opposition leaders, to continue their opposition activity as the EU is urging.

Kobzova of the European Council on Foreign Relations does not see much realistic prospect of a radical improvement in ties with the West under present circumstances.

"The chances are that all political prisoners will be released relatively soon. In this case, the dialogue will resume. But the EU is unlikely to put too much money into Belarus unless they see structural, systemic changes," she said.

Though the economic crisis appears to provide fertile ground for unrest, few commentators expect serious upheaval in the tightly-policed state where the populist leader consistently strikes a common chord with key sectors such as the industrial workforce.

Despite last December’s demonstration in which about 40,000 people rallied against his re-election in what they saw as a rigged vote, not even the most ardent opposition activist is talking about revolution.

A threatened new series of "silent" protests by young people, in which they simply gather on the streets and applaud sarcastically, might on past form earn them quick arrest and a few days in custody plus a fine.

On Wednesday night, for the first time, police ignored them.

"His (Lukashenko’s) main support base, and pensioners, poorer people and those who live off state benefit, is still relatively solid. Rather than protest, those who are not happy often leave, usually to work in Russia. The borders are not closed," said Kobzova.

"Also important is that no-one, including the opposition, has thus far been able to articulate a viable alternative for Belarussians," she said.