Yanukovych won’t actually be able to run the nation unless his Party of Regions succeeds in the bigger battle: forming a governing coalition with at least 226 deputies.
President-elect Victor Yanukovych has made a remarkable comeback since his humiliating defeat in 2004. But Yanukovych will take office with powers severely curtailed by the constitutional amendments made to end the Orange Revolution, the peaceful uprising that led to President Victor Yushchenko’s defeat of Yanukovych on Dec. 26, 2004.
Yanukovych won’t actually be able to run the nation unless his Party of Regions – with a parliament-leading 172 deputies – succeeds in the bigger battle: forming a governing coalition with at least 226 deputies.
Ironically, to oust the government led by his rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Yanukovych’s camp will need to forge an awkward alliance with the 71-member political camp that formerly backed Yushchenko, the outgoing president.
Political eyes are now focused on parliament’s Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defense bloc, whose deeply splintered ranks find themselves in a pivotal kingmaker role that could define their political future and how the country is governed.
For Our Ukraine, it’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t-situation, said Victor Nebozhenko, political analyst and head of the Ukrainian Barometer pollster.
“Democracy has played a cruel joke on them,” Nebozhenko said, referring to the Our Ukraine group. “It’s a moment of truth. If they remain with Tymoshenko, the majority coalition will remain unstable and it will be difficult to govern. If they leave, they will have to explain to their constituents in western and central Ukraine why they have decided to vote with Communist Party deputies in favor of Yanukovych’s initiatives.”
If Our Ukraine fails to take a side, Yanukovych is likely – as promised – to call a snap parliamentary election that will plunge the country into a fresh political fight – one which the increasingly unpopular Our Ukraine group is likely to lose, giving them few if any seats in a fresh parliament.
“What’s at stake for Our Ukraine and the nation is whether the country will have to endure another national election pitting Yanukovych’s supporters against the allies of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko,” said Kost Bondarenko, director of the Gorshenin Institute.
“Members of the Our Ukraine group don’t want a snap poll, and ordinary Ukrainians are sick of elections,” Bondarenko added.
The current 226-member majority coalition was formed by 156 Tymoshenko bloc members and 70 Our Ukraine group lawmakers in December 2007 after a snap parliamentary election. It was later beefed up with the addition of parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s 20-seat bloc, but has been largely ineffective, owing to the divided loyalties of Our Ukraine deputies.
Many have sided with President Victor Yushchenko, honorary chairman of the Our Ukraine party, in sabotaging Tymoshenko’s government and voting against government-led measures.
With Yushchenko soon to be replaced as president, about a dozen remain loyal to him. But Our Ukraine remains divided between those siding with Tymoshenko, those in favor of a Yanukovych-loyal coalition, and those wavering.
Lytvyn’s bloc is also wedged between a rock and a hard place, wondering whether to stick with a Tymoshenko coalition, or sign on to a new Yanukovych-loyal one.
Anatoly Hrytsenko, an Our Ukraine group lawmaker, described the current political situation as a “dead end.”
“It’s understood that the president and existing prime minister won’t work together, and fixing this situation without a conflict is impossible,” he said.
The standoff, which follows an election result endorsed by international monitors, the United States and Russia, has plunged politicians from all camps deep into horse-trading mode.
Watching from the sidelines nervously, investors and businesses fear that a protracted row could complicate Ukraine’s efforts to crawl out of a still very deep recession.
The frontlines
In a bid to avoid being relegated to the opposition, Tymoshenko has contested the Feb. 7 runoff and is attempting to shore up support among deputies belonging to the divided Our Ukraine parliament faction.
But her odds aren’t great.
Tymoshenko said she has no intention of resigning and that the presidential election result has no legal bearing on the situation in government or in parliament. She called on her junior coalition partners from the Our Ukraine group to help realign the current government, promising them a large share of government posts.
For Our Ukraine to reaffirm its loyalty to a Tymoshenko coalition, or leave the current majority and join a new coalition led by Yanukovych’s Party of Regions faction, support from a majority of its members, at least 37, is needed.
Yanukovych allies claim they are a few votes short of getting Our Ukraine on board into their coalition plans. But doubts loom whether the embattled grouping is capable of making any decision at all.
Taras Chornovil, a former Party of Regions faction deputy, said the number of Our Ukraine deputies currently entertaining the prospect of joining a new Yanukovych-loyal coalition has decreased substantially in recent days. The turning point for many lawmakers, he suggests, are controversial statements made in recent days by Yanukovych which are hard for nationalist-oriented Our Ukraine members to stomach: joining a Russian-led economic union; prolonging the lease by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at Ukraine’s Sevastopol port; and granting Russian language official state status.
“It’s grown absolutely silent. The number of Our Ukraine deputies willing to support a new majority has decreased from 34 to 15,” Chornovil told journalists on Feb. 18.
However, new parliamentary procedures, adopted on Feb. 9 and signed into law on Feb. 16, could provide Yanukovych with a tactical wild card in dissolving the loosely bandaged Tymoshenko coalition.
Lawmakers supporting Tymoshenko’s government mulled a 10-day deadline set on Feb. 17 by Lytvyn to confirm in writing their support for their rickety majority coalition in parliament. The controversial and constitutionally questionable requirement was set in motion by Yanukovych’s party and Lytvyn’s bloc. Communists joined their bloc in adopting the requirement via new parliament procedures. Chapter 12 of the 192-page document elaborates new rules defining a majority coalition as defunct if it fails to produce 226 signatures – a simple majority – during a parliamentary session.
If exercised, the signature rule could end up testing whether the current Rada coalition is viable.
“It’s obvious that 10 days from now there will be another announcement ending the sad chapter of how the illusion of the existence of a quasi [majority] coalition violated constitutional order in Ukraine over a protracted period of time,” Deputy Rada Speaker Oleksandr Lavrynovych told journalists on Feb. 17.
Tymoshenko holds on
Tymoshenko camp deputy Serhiy Myshchenko called the request unconstitutional.
“We will act in strict accordance with the law. The measure proscribed in new parliamentary procedures was not in effect when we created the coalition,” Myshchenko said. “We provided all the necessary documents at the time, and the new parliamentary procedures can’t be applied retroactively.”
Justice Minister Mykola Onyshchuk, deputy chief of the Our Ukraine group election bloc, agrees.
Until recently a bitter Tymoshenko foe and Yushchenko ally, Onyshchuk is one of a handful of Our Ukraine camp members switching sides. Joining Tymoshenko could offer a solid chance of getting re-elected to parliament.
Another is Anatoliy Matvienko. In an interview on Feb. 17 on Channel 5 TV, the Our Ukraine camp lawmaker said Yanukovych’s chances to form a new coalition are looking increasingly bleak.
“They haven’t come to the realization that power is not to be grabbed or seized, but used,” said Matvienko. “The rhetoric of Yanukovych and his party has so far intensified the fight [for power] and resistance.”
According to European Party of Ukraine leader Mykola Katerynchuk, a member of the Our Ukraine faction who backs Tymoshenko, the existing majority coalition is unlikely to self destruct.
“It remains intact, the prime minister remains in her post, and I believe that this format is the only possible one in the current circumstances to prevent the monopolistic Party of Regions from seizing all state power,” Katerynchuk said.
Meanwhile, Our Ukraine lawmaker Ruslan Knyazevych predicted that the bloc could produce enough signatures to prove the coalition is still alive. Apparently, Tymoshenko’s stall tactics – including her legal challenge against Yanukovych’s presidential election victory – is buying time and rebuilding support.
“I wouldn’t rule out that 226 deputies will affirm their presence in the [current] coalition come March 2. And with each day such an outcome becomes more likely,” Knyazevych told journalists on Feb. 17.
But not all Our Ukraine lawmakers sounded so confident. “It’s difficult to say,” said Vladyslav Kaskiv, an Our Ukraine group lawmaker and Pora party leader. “There are too many circumstances influencing this process to make any serious predictions.”
David Zhvania, an influential businessman in Our Ukraine, is openly calling for the group to join Yanukovych’s party in a coalition that would be led by ex-presidential candidate Arseniy Yatseniuk as prime minister.
Meanwhile, Yanukovych’s campaign manager Borys Kolesnikov told the Kyiv Post on Feb. 16 that Yanukovych, who is scheduled to be sworn in as president in parliament on Feb. 25, would float a broad economic reform program that most lawmakers would support.
“We are currently consulting with the different Rada factions. But I don’t expect a result before Feb. 23 or Feb. 24,” he said.
A former advisor to Yushchenko, Vadym Karasyov, said time and the influence of presidential powers, which includes control over the State Security Service and Prosecutor’s Office, will eventually play into Yanukovych’s favor.
“He has more to offer the Our Ukraine lawmakers than Tymoshenko. After his inauguration, Yanukovych will use every lever of power at his disposal, all the resources of his office, to create a new Rada majority,” Karasyov said.
Yanukovych pledged during the election campaign that he would dissolve the legislature if he failed to put together a new coalition after being elected president.
According to Ukraine’s constitution, the president can terminate parliament in three instances: If the legislature fails to form a new majority coalition within one month after a parliamentary election; if a government is not formed within 60 days of the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers; or if plenary sessions fail to commence within 30 days of a single regular session.
Kyiv Post staff writer Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected]and staff writer Peter Byrne can be reached at [email protected].
