Ukrainian
President Poroshenko has once again called on the United Nations to deploy
peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine – a repeated appeal that has previously been slammed
as meaningless by analysts and seen as hopeless by the West.
But this time around, Poroshenko hinted, there is more support for the move – and it could be decisive in resolving the country’s ongoing conflict with pro-Russian separatists in the east.
A statement posted on the president’s website on April 4 suggested that progress had already been made on the matter, with foreign ministers of the so-called “Normandy 4” said to have reacted positively to the idea after previously being skeptical in light of Russia’s reluctance and veto power in the UN Security Council.
The peacekeeping force would serve to complement the monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe who are already on the ground, Poroshenko said. Last month, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin argued that OSCE monitors could not conduct their work properly without the help of international peacekeepers, who he said would be the OSCE monitors’ only guarantee of safety in rebel-controlled territories.
“The peacekeepers should stay in a buffer zone between the contact line and the border, and the OSCE should monitor adherence to the Minsk agreement in all occupied territories,” Poroshenko said.
“At first, the reaction of the international partners to the initiative of deploying peacekeepers had been negative, because it was not provided for in the Minsk agreements,” the president said, adding that Klimkin had already held consultations with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the subject.
An appeal has been sent to the European Union and the United Nations, he said, and the matter of the peacekeeping mission’s format, modality and timeframe would be discussed at the next meeting of Ukrainian, Russian and EU foreign ministers.
A date has not yet been disclosed for that meeting.
Poroshenko’s optimistic comments come after numerous repeated calls for the deployment of peacekeepers went nowhere – which is why some see empty political posturing in the president’s words.
“At first, when Poroshenko suggested peacekeepers it was just to change the main topic of the day from the two themes dominating at the time – the retreat of Ukrainian forces from Debaltseve with major losses and the diplomatic failure of Minsk II,” said Mikhail Pogrebinsky , head of the Center of Political and Conflict Studies in Kiev.
Poroshenko’s statements were made with the understanding that “without approval from Putin, all talk of peacekeepers is futile,” he said.
“Without the consent of both sides in this military standoff, no peacekeepers will be deployed anywhere,” he said.
“If rumors can be trusted, Poroshenko brought the topic up again after sensing some leeway from Putin on the matter after Minsk II talks in early February. But then Poroshenko backtracked on certain clauses of the Minsk II agreement – making changes to the law on special procedures for local government (in rebel-controlled territories) – and Putin made clear that the subject was closed, “he said.
The subject will likely remain closed until Poroshenko budges and agrees to change the law on special procedures for local government, he said.
Vitalii Bala, head of the Situations Modeling Agency think tank, disagreed with the idea that Poroshenko’s appeals were futile, however, saying it was “the right thing to do.”
“It sends a message. It shows that Ukraine is for peace, despite all the Russian propaganda about Ukrainian fascists, which this message shows does not correspond with reality. It shows that Ukraine is not the side of the conflict that is escalating things, “he said.
It also calls Moscow’s bluff, as any resistance on Russia’s part conveys the message that the Kremlin does not want peace, he said.
In addition to putting Moscow on the spot and bolstering Ukraine’s image on the global stage, there is also a deeper strategic move, he said.
Poroshenko may be pushing to avail himself of the UN General Assembly’s 1950 resolution “Uniting for Peace,” Bala said.
That resolution set a precedent for the deployment of peacekeepers without a unanimous UN Security Council vote on the matter, after the UN Security Council was unable to agree unanimously to take action against North Korea because the Soviet Union’s delegation repeatedly vetoed the move.
The most important clause in that resolution was section A, which stipulated that if the Security Council failed to exercise its responsibility in maintaining peace because of a lack of unanimity among permanent members, the General Assembly could take control.
“I think the Ukrainian government is moving precisely in that direction, in setting that precedent again,” he said.
Bala also said the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic would simply “cease to exist” if a peacekeeping force were deployed along the Russia-Ukraine border, because the peacekeepers would be allowed to use force.
Devin Ackles, an analyst at the CASE Ukraine think tank, said Poroshenko’s comments could be his way of “laying the maximum amount of burden on Russia to commit to a ceasefire and show that they have made all efforts to do so.”
Ackles said it was his own personal opinion that peacekeepers would not be deployed to Ukraine anytime soon, “given the history of most frozen conflict zones in the former Soviet Union, where Russia has played a leading role as the sole arbiter of justice.”
Both the Kremlin and pro-Russian separatist forces in the east have already made clear that they will not agree to the deployment of peacekeepers.
Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called Poroshenko’s pleas a “deceptive maneuver” aimed at distracting from the non-fulfilment of the Minsk accords.
In February, Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s Ambassador to the UN, who holds veto power in the Security Council, slammed the peacekeeping plan for supposedly violating the Minsk accords.
“The Minsk agreements provide for the role of the OSCE. There is nothing about the U.N. or European Union, “Churkin told Russian media on February 19.
Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed separatist Donetsk People’s Republic, said late last month that rebel forces would not allow UN peacekeepers to enter their territory.
“About these peacekeepers being sent by Ukraine: they can send as many peacekeepers as they want to their own territory. No one will prohibit that. But we will continue to control the (Russia-Ukraine) border. … All the territory of the DNR that is currently occupied by Ukrainian authorities, temporarily, is ours, “he said in comments to Ukrainian media.
Zakharchenko said DNR forces would only allow peacekeepers from Russia.
Kyiv Post staff writer Allison Quinn can be reached at [email protected].
