You're reading: Crimea relies on mainland Ukraine for water, electricity, gas

As Russia’s stranglehold on Crimea tightens, mainland Ukraine still has several levers of influence to use. 

A Kremlin-backed government in Crimea not recognized by Kyiv or the West has scheduled a March 16 referendum on joining the Russian Federation or attaining greater autonomy under the 1992 constitution and remain a part of Ukraine. Keeping the status quo of partial autonomy is not an option on the ballot. 

Both options, amid a tense standoff where up to 30,000 armed Russian forces maintain control over the peninsula, foresee Crimea breaking further away from Ukraine. 

While the international community and Ukraine’s central government will not recognize the referendum, any change in status imposed by Russia still leaves mainland Ukraine with options.

Crimea relies on the rest of Ukraine for 80-85 percent of the water that it consumes, 82 percent of electricity and 35 percent of gas, according to Mykhailo Honchar, a leading energy analyst at Kyiv-based think tank Strategy XXI. Access to these vital resources will loom prominently amid diplomatic discussions this week ahead of the so-called referendum. 

The chief gas supplier, Ukraine-owned Chornomornaftogaz, has already been targeted by the Kremlin-installed government made up of politicians whose parties exist on the fringe of Crimea’s politics. Over the weekend, its leadership said Ukrainian state-owned assets, including Chronornaftogaz, would be taken over. 

Consuming about 1.7 billion cubic meters a year, Crimea gets about 35 percent of its gas delivered through pipelines on the mainland via Mykolayiv and Kherson oblasts, which lie directly north of the peninsula. 

According to Honchar of Strategy XXI, Chornomornaftogaz cannot supply Crimea with all its needs during the peak winter months from gas extracted from the Black Sea shelf. The company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of state-owned oil and gas giant Naftogaz Ukrainy, which also runs the nation’s vast gas transportation and storage network. 

Crimea would be an arid desert without the water it gets from the Dnipro River via the 400-kilometer Northern Crimean Canal that connects the peninsula with the Kakhov Reservoir to the north. The peninsula’s fruit and vegetable growers, and winemakers, rely on mainland water supply for their livelihood. The cities of Simferopol, Sevastopol, Kerch, Sudak, Feodosia, and others need it as a life source. 

Electricity, about 82 percent of which comes from thermal power plants in Zaporizhya and Kherson, is another factor. 

“And Crimea doesn’t have its own supply of coal and oil products to speak of,” said Honchar. 

According to the expert, Ukraine could use these resources to stop its assets on Crimea, including its military bases and installations, from being taken over by the Russians. But should Russia make further incursions and breach the mainland, war may break out. 

In a note to investors on March 11, Kyiv-based investment house Concorde Capital said: “Beyond Chornomorhaftogaz, the loss of Crimea will cost the Ukrainian government some of its offshore natural gas resources in the Black Sea…So far, Ukrainian forces haven’t engaged in any counter offenses…We expect both the Western and Ukrainian militaries will refrain from any action in Crimea, which will very likely lead to the peninsula’s surrender to the Russians. However, we expect action will be taken should the Russians expand their military offensive beyond Crimea into Ukraine’s mainland territory.” 

Economically, Crimea cannot survive on its own without money from Kyiv. It requires some $700 million in financial assistance from the state to meet its annual expense budget. Vesti daily reported on March 11 that Crimea would need an estimated $5 billion in investments to integrate its economy and infrastructure with Russia. But for the time being, it remains reliant on Ukraine. 

Kyiv Post editor Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].