SIMFEROPOL/SEVASTOPOL, Crimea – Lyudmila Nesina donated $12 to support pro-Russian vigilantes in Simferopol, the capital of Ukraine’s autonomous Crimean peninsula. She did it to support “peace, safety, friendship and freedom,” the 82-year-old retiree said.
Just 100 meters away, the Russian squads with red armbands assisted armed Russian civilian self-defense guards to prevent journalists and members of the political opposition from coming inside the pro-Kremlin parliament.
They are protecting Crimea’s new parliament speaker, Vladimir Konstantinov, and its prime minister, Sergei Aksyonov. To their critics, they are illegitimate criminals.
On March 16, just two weeks after Russia’s military seized control of Crimea, these leaders are asking residents to vote in a referendum. The leaders expect that at least 70 percent of voters on the peninsula of 2 million people – 58 percent of whom are ethnic Russians — will cast ballots to join Russia.
It would be hard to argue with their prediction, judging from random conversations on the street.
A “no” vote to preserve the status quo is not an option. The only other ballot choice is full autonomy from mainland Ukraine, but residents of Sevastopol – where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is headquartered – don’t even have that option. They are simply asked whether they want to join Russia or not.
The West and mainland Ukraine will not recognize the referendum as valid.
The new government in Kyiv that replaced Viktor Yanukovych, ousted as Ukrainian president on Feb. 21 by the EuroMaidan Revolution, said it is also preparing for a possible full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces next week.
Those in Crimea who are opposed to joining Russia, meanwhile, said they will simply boycott the referendum that many are calling a farce and that respected international election watchdogs, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, are calling illegitimate.
But Nesina is among the many Crimeans who support the pro-Kremlin authorities. She wants Crimea to become part of Russia. “On my wedding in 1954, Crimea was given to Ukraine. Now we need to go back to Russia,” she explained.
A younger pensioner, Nina Mitkina, 57, is also going to vote for joining Russia because she admires President Vladimir Putin. Under Putin’s rule, Mitkina is sure that life on the peninsula will become better. “All will get normalized – both pensions and salaries,” she said.
Mitkina said that it doesn’t bother her that masked Russian soldiers without epaulettes, commonly called “green men,” mined the gas pipeline and set up unauthorized checkpoints in Mitkina’s home city of Armyansk.
Despite the illegality of the referendum and other dangers, many Crimeans — driven by nostalgia and hopes for a more prosperous life — said they have made up their minds.
While the EuroMaidan Revolution was popular in many parts of Ukraine, in Crimea the new Kyiv authorities are not popular. Support for joining Russia has risen from 42 to 50 percent since the Feb. 21 change in government, sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto, head of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, told the Kyiv Post.
Simferopol-based psychologist Iryna Brunova-Kalisetska explained the popularity by the failure of mainland Ukrainian leaders to form working relationships with the residents. “People don’t understand Maidan here,” she said.
At the same time, the Kremlin is bombarding Crimea residents with propaganda through local TV, newspapers, billboards, and on-the-street agitation.
“Crimea has never been Ukrainian,” Ilia Drozdov, a lawmaker of the Russian Duma told the Kyiv Post as he and his assistants set up pro-Russian agitation tents at Simferopol’s central square. Being asked about the decision of the minority Crimean Tatars to ignore the referendum, Drozdov answered: “They have only a bit more than 10 percent here, so their point won’t change anything.”
Others, however, are not happy.
Hundreds of opponents of the Russian invasion, mostly women and children, have already left the peninsula. “I’m against violation of the territorial borders of state,” said Kateryna, a wife of Ukrainian officer in Belbek. She did not give her last name out of fear of retribution.
Tetiana Rykhtun, a prominent investigative journalist and activist in Sevastopol, showed the Kyiv Post the bruises she received after pro-Russian “babushkas” attacked her, throwing eggs on March 9. Rykhtun was also forced to leave her office as the owners abruptly increased cost of her rent by 50 percent.
She said Ukrainians in Crimea have been left by the central government in Kyiv to fend for themselves.
“From here it looks like Ukraine has already accepted losing Crimea and will be happy that to keep the rest of its territory,” Rykhtun said.
Both women are considering leaving their homes if Crimea becomes part of Russia.
Without waiting for the referendum, the Crimean parliament by an 81-2 vote on March 11 declared Crimea independent, claiming Kosovo as a precedent.
One of those who voted in favor, Svitlana Savchenko, a member of parliament from the Soyuz party, told the Kyiv Post that the transition from Ukraine to Russia will go smoothly. “I think this adaptation will be very quick as there is a political will to this from both sides,” Savchenko said.
But other experts said that in all other areas but language and culture — laws, banking and infrastructure – leaving Ukraine will be complicated.
Valentyna Romanova, a regional political analyst, said that Russia may pause before deciding whether to absorb Crimea or not. “Under Western pressure, Putin may wait for quite a long while as Crimea becomes a hostage,” she said.
But vigorous Russian supporters seem undeterred.
Rykhtun, the journalist, is certain that Crimea will become a center of instability and criminality, just like many self-proclaimed republics. “We will have an outbreak of criminality, a redistribution of business as after March 17, the property rights will become just papers, and I’m very fearing of possible looting,” she said.
But Rykhtun said that Crimean voters who support the independence referendum may live to regret their choice.
“Many babushkas, who now perceive going to Russia as return to Soviet Union, don’t understand that they will be the first people, who risk losing even that modest property they have now,” Rykhtun added.
Kyiv Post staff writer Oksana Grytsenko can be reached at [email protected]. Kyiv Post photographer Anastasia Vlasova contributed reporting to this story.
Editor’s Note: This article has been produced with support from the project www.mymedia.org.ua, financially supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, and implemented by a joint venture between NIRAS and BBC Media Action.The content in this article may not necessarily reflect the views of the Danish government, NIRAS and BBC Action Media.
