The scenario of a full-scale breakup of Ukraine's economic ties with the CIS Member States, the Customs Union, and first of all, Russia, if Kyiv signs the agreement on a Free Trade Area (FTA) with the European Union, is hardly probable, Chairman of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting Ihor Burakovsky has said.
Presenting at Interfax-Ukraine a survey on the economic consequences of the signing of the FTA agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, the expert denied one of the economic consequences of signing the agreement with the EU would be the possible breaking-off of the FTA Agreement between Ukraine and the CIS.
According to Burakovsky, apart from reinforced political pressure from Russia, Ukraine should be ready for “a worsening of minor troubles” in its economic relations with its northern neighbor, be it in the customs regulation sector, or anti-dumping investigations. However, he said that presence of “unresolved issues,” such as gas for example, in bilateral Ukrainian-Russian economic relations, “could hit both sides.”
As the expert said, problem issues in signing the FTA agreement with the EU should be put on agenda of special talks between Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Russia is a sole voice regarding the position of the Customs Union towards the agreement, while the other members of the Customs Union “have made no comments,” he added.
According to announced approximate estimates made by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, if the FTA agreement between Ukraine and CIS were to be broken, the GDP of Ukraine in the long-term for a period of ten years could drop by up to 1%, while national imports and exports could fall by about 1.4%.
