Ukraine will make a real choice of the vector of integration between the European Union and the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2015, Head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies Volodymyr Fesenko has said.
“As for the movement towards Russia and the Customs Union, it can happen. The choice will not be made now, not in November 2013. A real choice between two vectors of integration will be made in 2015, during and after the presidential elections,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.
In addition, he said: “[Ukrainian President Viktor] Yanukovych, for some tactical reasons (it could be advantageous to him if the agreement with the European Union is not signed in November 2013), ‘play out’ integration with the Customs Union. Much of his voters will support this idea, and from the point of view of the logic of the presidential elections it will be advantageous for him to do so, but he should not rush into joining the Customs Union.”
Fesenko said that Ukraine should not rush into joining the Customs Union.
“But I’m afraid if the question of a choice in favor of the Customs Union arises, the matter may end up splitting the country,” he said.
Fesenko said that Ukraine should look for a model of “flexible balance, the golden mean” in relations with the EU and the Customs Union in order to obtain economic benefits.
Director of the Kyiv Center for Political and Conflict Studies Mykhailo Pohrebynsky also believes that Ukraine will make a choice between the EU and the Customs Union in 2015.
“More or less important things will happen in 2015,” he said.
At the same time, he predicted that “in order to ensure the self-preservation of the current government, the leadership of the state will be forced to forget about European integration during the election campaign and strongly emphasize that all documents were signed with Europe and now it’s necessary to resolve the issue with Moscow, Kazakhstan and so on. Otherwise, it will be impossible to gather the electorate.”
The analyst also said he thinks that the Association Agreement with the EU would be signed in November 2013.
“They [the European Union] do not want to let Ukraine go. They are not planning to give it anything, but they also do not want to let it go,” Pohrebynsky said.
