Victor Yanukovych, the tongue-tied front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election, was supposed to be standing at the rostrum below, debating his charismatic rival, Yulia Tymoshenko. But some think he wimped out of the TV debate, fearing that his common blunders of speech could have convinced millions of swing voters that her presidential credentials are stronger. Will Ukrainians elect Yanukovych, dubbed a “coward” by Tymoshenko, as their next president?
In established democracies, election debates help swing voters make a final choice.
But in Ukraine, where millions of voters are still undecided ahead of the Feb. 7 presidential runoff, this benchmark of democracy has been denied: Victor Yanukovych, the gaffe-prone presidential front-runner, copped out of a debate with Yulia Tymoshenko, his charismatic opponent.
So what conclusions does one draw when the clear leader in a presidential race refuses to show up for a live, nationally-televised debate with his opponent, a debate scheduled in advance, and the only one scheduled between the two candidates?
If you are Prime Minister Tymoshenko, the underdog, there can be only one conclusion regarding Yanukovych’s no-show on Feb. 1.
“His PR team simply hid him from us,” she told viewers of Ukraine’s First National state-run television channel on the evening of Feb. 1. “And, I understand that the empty place that we see here tonight demonstrates the essence of the matter: There is no one here in this studio but a smell, and believe me, that smell is the smell of fear. I do not want a common coward to become the next leader of our nation,” she said.
Yanukovych had given advance notice that he would not take part in the debate, which had been scheduled by the country’s Central Electoral Commission.
“I believe that concrete deeds and the words of honor that one has given are more important than lots of sweet and nice phrases. So, I think that it is worthless to get involved in political idle talk, to compete in a championship of lies ahead of the election,” Yanukovych was quoted as saying by his press service on Feb. 1.
As millions of Ukrainian swing voters struggle to decide on a candidate, the choice appears to be a no-brainer for some Western observers who wonder how Ukraine, a country that aspires to join the European Union, could elect front-runner Victor Yanukovych as president.
In a Jan. 21 article entitled “An orange and two lemons,” the Economist magazine concluded that Yanukovych, “shows no sign of having the intellectual or political nous a successful president needs.”
The article also mentions negatives of Yanukovych’s rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, such as her “populist instincts” and “a worrying lack of scruples,” but goes on to say: “On balance, she is a better choice.”
But if Yanukovych’s 10-point lead over Tymoshenko in the first round of the election held on Jan. 17 is any indication, Ukrainian voters don’t agree.
Sick and tired of the endless political bickering so characteristic of post-Orange Revolution Ukraine, voters appear resigned to accept the man widely accused of trying to steal their votes over five years ago.
Yanukovych certainly met the challenge of engaging his chief opponent in the 2004 race, outgoing President Victor Yushchenko, who took a whipping at the hands of Yanukovych during their first debate. Tymoshenko was Yushchenko’s ally in the 2004 Orange Revolution that forced Yanukovych from power, rallying crowds in the center of Kyiv with her mesmerizing rhetoric.
Ukrainian political analyst Mykhailo Pogrebinsky, who served in Yanukovych’s campaign team in 2004, characterized Yanukovych’s decision to boycott the Feb. 1 debate with Tymoshenko as a tactical move.
“He’s got a good rating going into the runoff, so why take a risk?” he asked, adding, “It is, of course, desirable to take part in a debate, but it’s no collapse of democracy if a candidate doesn’t.”
Yanukovych apparently felt more comfortable staging a solo television appearance that same evening of Feb. 1 on a different Ukrainian television channel, where he fielded softball subjects such as the need to increase gross domestic product.
Even without Tymoshenko’s help, though, Yanukovych seems incapable of keeping his foot out of his mouth, recently referring to Russian author Anton Chekhov as a Ukrainian poet, and confusing the word “gene pool” with “genocide” in reference to the people of Lviv, Western Ukraine, whom he was addressing just before the debate.
Another Ukrainian political analyst, Oleksiy Haran, called Yanukovych’s no-show a sign of weakness.
“But the most important thing demonstrated here is that Yanukovych has shown his readiness to not adhere to European standards of democracy,” he added.
As a result, Yanukovych’s no-show might cost him some of the millions of swing voters who didn’t vote for either candidate in the first round, according to Haran.
Yanukovych, traditionally perceived as a pro-Russian candidate, has clumsily avoided committing himself to EU integration. However, the nominally pro-Western Tymoshenko has also waffled on issues such as NATO membership.
“Both candidates suffer from a lack of specificity” on key issues, Haran said.
Though, on more urgent issues such as energy independence from Moscow, Tymoshenko has made herself crystal clear, pummeling Yanukovych in the solo debate for his connections to shady gas intermediary RosUkrEnergo – a company that Tymoshenko removed from Ukraine’s gas import scheme.
“Yanukovych cannot help but be for dependence on Russian gas, because [Yuriy] Boyko and [Dmytro] Firtash (the men Tymoshenko says stand behind RosUkrEnergo) are his main campaign backers,” said political analyst Kost Bondarenko.
Moreover, Yanukovych has publicly advocated support for a Russian gas pipeline project that circumvents Ukraine’s gas transit system – a point Tymoshenko was also keen to bring up on the evening of Feb. 1.
Bondarenko said Yanukovych wasn’t just afraid of being out-debated by Tymoshenko, but of the sticky accusations that she might hurl at him, including his criminal record as a young man, or a recent scandal involving the alleged transfer of an exclusive state dacha into his ownership.
All three analysts said that Tymoshenko, who has her own Achilles heel, such as explaining her accumulation of wealth from Ukraine’s shady gas trade during the 1990s, would nevertheless pick the more intellectually-challenged Yanukovych apart before a live television audience.
A decisive problem solver, Tymoshenko contrasts greatly with the physically imposing Yanukovych, who is considered to rely heavily on the brains of his billionaire backers.
So is a ‘President Yanukovych’ unlikely to be taken serious abroad?
Andrew Wilson, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Europe will look for substance over form from either candidate, but that Yanukovych already looks slow coming out of the gate.
“Yanukovych, the tortoise, might claim he would get more done in the long run than the Tymoshenko hare. But on an individual level, he would be more introverted and dependent on his inner circle,” he said.
Kyiv Post staff writer John Marone can be reached at [email protected].
