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What will Putin's return mean for Ukraine?

While supporters of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin cheered his plans to return as president in 2012, the decision raises concerns for Ukraine – a country he has aggressively tried to anchor in Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The announcement that Putin, who ran the Kremlin from 2000-2008, would seek the presidency again, instead of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, came as little surprise. After the Sept. 24 announcement, Putin said that he and Medvedev had settled on this scenario years ago.

Putin served as prime minister since 2008, when he was barred constitutionally from seeking a third consecutive term and handpicked Medvedev to take what has turned out to be a caretaker role.

Putin is considered to be the top dog in Russia, despite Medvedev’s constitutional authority. Putin is expected to regain the presidency, given his tight control of the nation, a prospect that could extend his rule until 2024.

Putin is a tough authoritarian who aggressively promotes Russian interests, particularly in neighboring former Soviet republics.

He has indicated he wants to increase influence over Ukraine. Analysts said this could lead to an increase in pressure on Kyiv to join a Moscow-led trade bloc, to give up control over strategic natural gas pipelines and to flog assets to Russian business groups.

Putin’s return, while not surprising, is not good for Russia or for Ukraine or other Russian neighbors. I don’t think we’ll see a blow-up in the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, though I expect Moscow to exercise more pressure against Kyiv.

– David Kramer, a former U.S. deputy secretary of state, head of the democracy watchdog Freedom House

“Putin’s return, while not surprising, is not good for Russia or for Ukraine or other Russian neighbors,” said David Kramer, a former U.S. deputy secretary of state who now heads democracy watchdog Freedom House.

“I don’t think we’ll see a blow-up in the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, though I expect Moscow to exercise more pressure against Kyiv.”

Putin has long campaigned against Ukrainian attempts to integrate with the West. He opposed former President Viktor Yushchenko’s desire to join NATO, and has mocked President Viktor Yanukovych’s aim of joining the European Union.

“Putin is a highly emotional man. He cannot stand” the factthat Ukraine has broke free of Moscow to become an independent nation, said Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute.

“His current strategy is to make sure that no Russian natural gas or oil is transited through Ukraine in the future. An alternative is to force Ukraine into the Customs Union and to give up part of the trunk pipeline system,” Aslund added.

Putin has reportedly questioned Ukraine’s territorial integrity in discussions with top world leaders.

At a NATO conference in 2008, the respected Russian daily Kommersant quoted a diplomatic source as overhearing Putin tell then-U.S. President George Bush: “You understand, George, that Ukraine is not even a state!” More recently, he said Russia didn’t need Ukraine’s contributions to win World War II.

As prime minister, Putin has pushed for Kyiv to join a customs union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. He has also called for Ukraine to sell its pipelines to Moscow or merge the two countries’ state gas companies.

But Yanukovych has rebuffed these demands, instead pursuing integration with the European Union. Analysts said, however, that Putin had not given up on persuading Ukraine to take the Russian deal.

Under Putin, Russia “will continue the policy of rebuilding the Soviet-style economic empire,” said Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels. “Ukraine is important for the success of this project and thus Kyiv will be under constant attention from Moscow.

The invitation to join the customs union is still out there and Russia will not give up till the last moment.”

He [Putin] was, is and will remain the main guy for a long time

– Lukasz Adamski, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs.

Shumylo-Tapiola said that, even if Yanukovych doesn’t agree to the customs union, “there are other things that Putin’s Moscow would like to get from Ukraine – its pipeline system that pumps the lion’s share of Russian gas to Europe, its assets that are either in the hands of the Ukrainian state or local oligarchs. Putin is unlikely to stop going after these assets.”

Tense Ukraine-Russian relations could be further complicated by what some see as Putin’s dislike of Yanukovych.

In a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable from January 2009, Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Gryshchenko is quoted as saying that Putin “has a low personal regard for Yanukovych.” A Russian diplomat based in Kyiv told the Kyiv Post that Putin did not view Yanukovych as a good negotiating partner.

Many analysts, however, see Putin’s return as having little effect on Russia’s policy toward Ukraine. “He was, is and will remain the main guy for a long time,” said Lukasz Adamski, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs.

The return of Putin to the Kremlin clears up the chain of command. A senior Ukrainian official complained earlier this month that meeting with Medvedev was not very effective as the real decision-maker was Putin.

“The future is now rather predictable, as we know what we can expect from Putin, what his policies will be,” said a Western diplomat in Kyiv.

“This decision brings more clarity for Ukraine on what to expect, what relations and negotiations will look like. Ukraine can prepare itself better when it knows the future in Russia. For that, one needs strategic thinking, which has been rather lacking in Ukraine,” the diplomat added.

Shumylo-Tapiola from Carnegie Europe said the major danger for Ukraine comes not from Putin, but from “the inability of the current [Ukrainian] government to make strategic decision in country’s interest, their imitation of reform in some areas, the inability of the opposition to offer alternative views on policies – these factors weaken Ukraine’s position more than anything else.”

Kyiv Post staff writer Yuriy Onyshkiv can be reached at [email protected] and editor James Marson can be reached at [email protected].