At the Asia-Europe summit in Milan on Oct. 16-17, Ukrainian President Perto Poroshenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are expected to discuss enforcing the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire agreement, which has been routinely violated on a daily basis.
Speculation has been growing that the two presidents have reached some backdoor deals that would allow them to find a compromise at the Milan summit, which will also be attended by European Union countries.
Some have even suggested that Putin is abandoning his project to sponsor separatists in eastern Ukraine in an effort to avoid further sanctions.
Poroshenko commented on future talks in a statement released on Oct. 12.
“My goal is the country’s immutable independence, its territorial integrity, inviolability of borders and resumption of peace,” he said. “If we make sure that the cease-fire is enforced, that Russian troops and military equipment are withdrawn and control over the border is restored, a clear and necessary way will be open for political resolution (of the conflict).”
Yevhen Perebyinis, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry, said at a news briefing on Oct. 15 that participants of the summit would discuss enforcing the cease-fire, the completion of prisoner exchanges, efficient control over the border and withdrawal of Russian troops and mercenaries.
“We are waiting for significant progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements,” said Perebyinis. “Unfortunately the agreements are being enforced unilaterally – only by Ukraine.”
One major problem is that there are separatist groups that are not controlled by any external force, he said.
“Everyone understands that, apart from Russian troops, there are also gangs not controlled by anyone,” he said. “It is in Russia’s interests to stop the activities of illegal armed groups.”
He also said that a buffer zone in Donbas could only be created when the ceasefire started to be enforced.
To aid its enforcement, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s monitoring mission in Ukraine will be expanded, Perebyinis said. Thirty new monitors have already come, and another 20 will come by the end of October, he added.
But he said that that OSCE monitors could not control the border effectively, and about 300 kilometers of the border were not being monitored. Russian weapons and mercenaries continue crossing the border into Ukraine, he added.
Russia is likely to block expanding the mandate of the OSCE’s border mission, which would allow the organization to monitor the whole stretch of the border that is not controlled by Ukraine, Perebyinis said. “Russia is not interested in expanding the mandate,” he said.
Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said by phone that key issues during future talks included determining the boundary between Ukrainian-held and separatist-controlled areas near the city of Mariupol, possibly swapping Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Airport for some separatist-held territory and discussing the situation around Luhansk.
Major problems are creating mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of the Minsk agreement and making separatists comply with it, Fesenko said.
Another major issue for future talks is a series of elections scheduled to be held by Ukraine and Kremlin-backed separatists.
Under a recent Ukrainian law giving separatist-held areas special status, they are expected to hold local elections on Dec. 7. However, they have refused to allow either these elections or Ukrainian parliamentary elections, slated for Oct. 26, in their territories.
Instead, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are planning to hold elections of their presidents and legislatures on Nov. 2. Ukraine has described these elections as illegitimate and argued that they violated the Minsk agreement.
Ukrainian political analyst Vitaly Bala told the Kyiv Post that separatists’ refusal to take part in Ukraine’s parliamentary election was a step towards secession because it would allow them to legitimize their independence.
Apart from the situation in eastern Ukraine, Putin and Poroshenko will also discuss the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas conflict, the Kremlin’s press office reported on Oct. 14, citing a recent telephone conversation between the two presidents.
The countries have been involved in a lengthy dispute over gas prices and Ukraine’s debt for gas supplies since the EuroMaidan Revolution in February. In June Russia halted gas sales to Ukraine.
The negotiations might be facilitated by alleged recent agreements between Putin and Poroshenko.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Oct. 14 that Poroshenko and Putin had reached certain secret agreements that elaborated on the Minsk deal. Perebyinis declined to comment on the agreements.
Speculation about backdoor deals was also spurred by the resumption of operations at Poroshenko’s chocolate factory in the Russian city of Lipetsk on Oct. 13. The factory has been working on and off for more than a year as Poroshenko’s Russian assets were jeopardized by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and trade wars.
Observers have also cited Putin’s decision on Oct. 12 to withdraw 17,600 Russian troops from the border with Ukraine as a sign that he is willing to negotiate. But critics have suggested this was merely a rotation.
Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov wrote on Facebook on Oct. 12 that the move was a sign that “the Novorossiya project” to fund insurgents in Donbas had been closed.
Fesenko dismissed Nemtsov’s ideas as wishful thinking. “Putin will never abandon a foothold in eastern Ukraine,” he said.
Bala said that Putin was unlikely to stop supporting separatists because he aimed to destabilize Ukraine.
“Putin’s main motivation is not to let Ukraine become a successful state that would be an example of success (for Russia),” he said. “That would mean the end of Putin’s era.”
Kyiv Post staff writer Oleg Sukhov can be reached at [email protected].
