Yulia Tymoshenko is a person of notable firsts: the first woman to be Ukraine’s prime minister, the first former high-level official to be imprisoned in Ukraine and the first woman slated to be runner-up in a second consecutive presidential race.
Two polls released on May 20 and May 21 give her 10 and 8 percent support in the May 25 election, respectively, far behind front-runner billionaire member of parliament Petro Poroshenko who hovers around 50 percent.
But if presidential elections are a test on how far people can transcend their past, Tymoshenko, 53, appears to have not re-created herself after spending nearly three years in prison for what many in the West said were bogus, politically-motivated charges.
Her time in prison coincided with ex-President Viktor Yanukovych’s truncated term in office presumably because she was his main rival. Then on Feb. 22, the EuroMaidan Revolution – based largely on a unified desire to dismantle the corrupt, oligarchic system of politicians – led to Tymoshenko’s release after 30 months in prison.
As a product of that system that made her rich in the 1990s, the Dnipropetrovsk native is not in sync with the mood of EuroMaidan.
“She hasn’t re-invented her modus operandi,” Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations, told the Kyiv Post. “You see a lot of deal breaking with local power brokers. That’s why she is running, to protect relations, to keep the network in tact regardless of who gets elected.”
Best known as the heroine of the 2004 Orange Revolution for her fiery speeches, she still is perceived as a strong yet divisive leader. Her fortitude during a one-month prison stay for standing up to then-President Leonid Kuchma in 2001 remained firm during her second time in prison.
Coming off strong though from outside the political arena where she has been absent is difficult to prove.
“People remember her as prime minister (and the bickering with ex-President Viktor Yushchenko) plus there is a demand for new politicians and Poroshenko who didn’t have presidential ambitions before is seen as that new face,” said political expert Serhiy Taran, who heads the Kyiv-based policy center International Democracy Institute.
So, when she lost in 2010 to Yanukovych by less than 1 million votes, she said: “We will protect Ukraine from this new calamity that has befallen her.”
While she sat in a prison-run hospital in Kharkiv Oblast, EuroMaidan became radicalized over police violence and the inaction of the movement’s three political leaders of Arseniy Yatseniuk, Vitali Klitschko and Oleh Tyahnybok, noted Taran.
“People wanted action, and Poroshenko wasn’t part of the (peace) negotiations with Yanukovych,” he added.
Fresh from her release on Feb. 22, Tymoshenko told the EuroMaidan crowd that she would re-enter politics, an announcement that got a lukewarm reception.
“Although the EuroMaidan was radicalized, the majority of Ukrainians don’t want a radical president,” Yevhen Kopatko, head of Research & Branding sociology group, told the Kyiv Post. “Poroshenko is an alternative to the radical Maidan, he is seen as a compromise candidate, a leader who can unite the east and west.”
A poll of 80 Ukrainian and international experts released this week by the Institute of World Policy that rated how “European” a presidential candidate is, found that Tymoshenko ranked fourth, with Poroshenko overwhelmingly topping the list.
She was praised for her professional campaign platform. She is firmly for immediately signing a far-ranging free-trade deal with the European Union, and wants to put the question of joining the 28-nation bloc and NATO to a national referendum. Tymoshenko furthermore was credited for her wealth of experience and understanding of European integration processes. She scored miserably, however, for her perceived use of “black public relations” and un-European “way of thinking, political culture and behavior.”
Even though Poroshenko came up in the same political atmosphere that Tymoshenko, stated Taran, he is not viewed as a member of the “old guard” because he didn’t serve as prime minister or run for president.
“Tymoshenko’s rating is still high, and if she loses, she won’t envy Poroshenko’s ascension to the presidency,” he added, referring to the task of dealing with pro-Russian separatism in the east, a tanking economy and the need to revamp government.
Kyiv Post editor Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].
