As the fourth week of EuroMaidan kicked off on Dec. 12, the protesters controlled the streets while President Viktor Yanukovych dug in at his office.
One day earlier, on Dec. 11, a bizarre predawn police raid and retreat failed to dislodge protesters. But the attempt prompted international condemnation that led President Viktor Yanukovych to make a plea for negotiations with his political opponents.
“I invite representatives of all the political forces, clergy, and members of the public to a national dialogue I personally am willing to participate in this roundtable,” he said in a statement on Dec. 11.
However, considering Yanukovych’s history of saying one thing and doing another, the sincerity of his offer was greeted with skepticism by many and outright rejection by the political opposition unless certain preconditions are met. It was, after all, his abrupt Nov. 21 about-face and sudden refusal to sign a political association and free trade pact with the European Union that triggered the ongoing protests. They were exacerbated by the beating of peaceful demonstrators on Nov. 30 by riot police.
“What happened (on Nov. 30), it was bloody and unprovoked,” says Oleh Rybachuk, one of the most visible members of civil society on EuroMaidan, referring to the violent police breakup of peaceful protesters that night which sent dozens of people to the hospital. The bloody crackdown came the day after EU leaders gave Yanukovych the cold-shoulder at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, where he tried to explain his tilt back towards Russia as an economic imperative for his nation.
Ryabachuk, never one to mince words, said: “When they say they are ready to sit down at a roundtable and negotiate, after that, I wish them to go and burn in hell.”
Rybachuk says that before a face-to-face discussion is possible, Yanukovych needs to take certain actions. This sentiment is shared by the student community and opposition, as well as by Ukraine’s Western partners.
“My way to interpret the (president’s) message is by what happens now,” Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said at a briefing in Kyiv.
The expectation is that Yanukovych will secure the release of jailed activists, punish those who unleashed the police against peaceful demonstrators and bring in outside mediation before everyone gets seated at the roundtable.
One of the student leaders of EuroMaidan, Anton Savidi, said that his group would like to have high-level EU officials mediate discussions between the government and demonstrators. He said they also expect those in power to resign.
Maria Ionova, a member of Vitali Klitschko’s Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, says that for the opposition to join any peace talks, early parliamentary and presidential elections are the main goal. “The only exit from the current political crisis is to hold new parliamentary and presidential elections. And this is not just a demand of UDAR, it’s a demand from Maidan. This is non-negotiable,” she says.
But all signs point to the president being unwilling even to meet the basic set of preconditions. Of the nine people arrested on Dec. 1, after clashes with the police during mass rallies, two were still in jail by the time that Kyiv Post went to print, as were others arrested later.
Nobody in the police force has been dismissed or disciplined, and even the idea of mediation is scoffed at by the president’s messengers. “This is an extreme measure that would show inability of both the government and the opposition for a constructive negotiation,” Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara told Interfax-Ukraine.
There are signs that the conflict will escalate further. EuroMaidan supporters emerged from their all-night clashes with police early Dec. 11 even more defiant and determined. They built even bigger barricades after police and emergencies ministry workers removed them during the night.
Moreover, new massive rallies are planned through the weekend starting on Dec. 13.
For its part, the ruling Party of Regions is planning a rival rally. Andriy Pinchuk, leader of the party’s youth wing, said 200,000 people are expected to arrive in Kyiv to oppose those at Independence Square. Many observers fear that all on the government payroll will be forced to take part.
Vadym Kolesnichenko, one of the most outspoken and pro-Russian members of the Regions Party said that in southern and eastern Ukraine people are mobilizing and forming “self-defense units” to protect statehood and constitution. “They are not defending the Cabinet, they are prepared to defend the Constitution,” he said.
In the meantime, reports are coming in from western Ukraine that local governments that started using European symbols in their townships are facing pressure from numerous inspections and probes by prosecutors and other bodies.
But the West is also preparing sticks, it seems, and the favorite buzzword of the moment is “sanctions.”
“We are considering policy options… sanctions are included but I am not going to outline specifics,” Jen Psaki, the U.S. State Department spokesperson said on Dec. 11.
Until now, the State Department has preferred to engage with the Ukrainian government, while the U.S. Senate played the bad cop, at times calling for sanctions. The timing of the ultimately aborted Dec. 11 police raid was seen as a Yanukovych slap in the face to the West – taking place as Victoria Nuland, the U.S. assistant secretary of state, and Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, were in Kyiv.
Both were shocked, alerted their capitals and sent clear signals to Yanukovych to back down as Brussels and Washington figure out their next steps. Through all of his, Moscow also weighed in – with Russian President Vladimir Putin hinting at financial rewards for Ukraine if he stops looking West.
If the U.S. government wants to ride the mood of its envoy – and U.S Secretary of State John Kerry, who expressed his “disgust” over the government’s move to mobilize riot police – personal sanctions against Ukrainian officials might be likelier than ever.
In a Dec. 12 statement, U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, the author of the Magnitsky Act, which introduced personal sanctions against Russian officials responsible for human rights violations that led to the death of activist Sergei Magnitsky, said that the U.S. “will demand consequences for any crimes perpetrated against Ukrainians who are peacefully exercising their fundamental human rights.”
Kyiv Post deputy chief editor Katya Gorchinskaya and editor Christopher J. Miller can be reached at [email protected] and [email protected].
