The US government should provide Ukraine $3 billion in nonlethal and defensive lethal military assistance over the next three years so that Russia finally choose a political solution to the ongoing military conflict with Ukraine, reads a joint report from the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
“That requires providing direct military assistance – in far larger amounts than provided to date and including lethal defensive arms – so that Ukraine is better able to defend itself. The U.S. government should provide Ukraine $1 billion in military assistance as soon as possible in 2015, followed by additional tranches of 1$ billion in FY 2016 and FY 2017,” reads a report “Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do” presented by the US experts in Washington in early February this year.
The analysts establish that there is a critical juncture in Ukraine since there is no real ceasefire; there is a significant increase in fighting along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine in mid-January, with Russian/separatist forces launching attacks on the Donetsk airport and other areas.
“Instead of a political settlement, Moscow currently seeks to create a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine as a means to pressure and destabilize the Ukrainian government,” reads the document.
According to the scholars, Russians continue to be present in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in substantial numbers and have introduced significant amounts of heavy weapons that could signify on preparation for another major Russian/separatist offensive.
The US experts consider that Russian success would fatally undermine Ukraine’s stability and embolden the Kremlin to further challenge the security order in Europe. “It might tempt President Putin to use his doctrine of protecting ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in seeking territorial changes elsewhere in the neighborhood, including in the Baltic States, provoking a direct challenge to NATO,” said the report.
The experts believe maintaining Western sanctions are critical but not by themselves sufficient. “The West needs to bolster deterrence in Ukraine by raising the risks and costs to Russia of any renewed major offensive,” said the analysts.
The report mentions a list of additional nonlethal assistance for Ukraine and the United States: counter-battery radars, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), electronic counter-measures for use against opposing UAVs, secure communications capabilities, armored Humvees and medical support equipment.
Lethal defensive military assistance should include light anti-armor missiles, given the large numbers of armored vehicles that the Russians have deployed in Donetsk and Luhansk and the abysmal condition of the Ukrainian military’s light anti-armor weapons.
Besides, they believe other NATO members should provide military assistance as well.
“Of particular use to the Ukrainian be equipment and weapons from NATO members who operate former Soviet equipment compatible with the arms currently in the Ukrainian inventory, “the experts recommended.
“Assisting Ukraine to deter attack and defend itself is not inconsistent with the search for a peaceful, political solution—it is essential to achieving it. Only if the Kremlin knows that the risks and costs of further military action are high will it seek to find an acceptable political solution. Russia’s actions in and against Ukraine pose the gravest threat to European security in more than 30 years. The West has the capacity to stop Russia. The question is whether it has the will,” the report said.
This report is the result of collaboration among scholars and former practitioners from the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, the Center for a New American Security, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
It reflects mid-January discussions with senior NATO and U.S. officials in Brussels and senior Ukrainian civilian and military officials in Kyiv and at the Ukrainian anti-terror operation headquarters in Kramatorsk.
The report outlines the background to the crisis over Ukraine, describes why the United States and NATO need to engage more actively and urgently, summarizes what the authors heard in discussions at NATO and in Ukraine, and offers specific recommendations for steps that Washington and NATO should take to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and thereby enhance its ability to deter further Russian aggression.
