You're reading: Egypt’s Mubarak will not step down

Feb 10 (Reuters) - Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak on Thursday said he was not stepping down, although he transferred power to his vice president.

Below is reaction from analysts and economists.

ROBERT SPRINGBORG, PROFESSOR OF NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS AT THE U.S. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

It’s an enormously provocative step. There are desperate men, willing to gamble the fate of the nation for their own personal interest. It’s a very sad historic moment for Egypt.

The speeches tonight are not intended to bring an end to the crisis in a peaceful way but to inflame the situation so there is justification for the imposition of direct military rule. They are risking not only the coherence of the military but even indeed, and I use this term with advisement here, civil war."

I think it needs to be made perfectly clear (by outside powers) that Mubarak and his regime are forfeiting Egypt’s future. Egypt is in an economic crisis. It is going to have to be bailed out and the short answer to what they are doing now is that it will not be bailed out with anything like a military regime in place that is associated with Mubarak, Omar Suleiman and these people who are part of this regime.

ANTHONY CORDESMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

The truth is that even the senior military now at the top of the power structure under Mubarak almost certainly have no clear idea of what happens next, and it will be days before anyone know how well the transition will function, who goes and who stays, and how stable the result really is.

It is also important to understand that democracy is less important to most Egyptians than material benefits, jobs, decent education, effective government services, ending corruption and favouritism, and emphasizing the concept of justice in ways that provide security and honest police and courts. People aren’t looking for a vote as much as they want to stop the economic, political and social injustice

STEPHEN GRAND, MIDDLE EAST EXPERT, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION IN WASHINGTON

It was quite surreal. He’s a stubborn old man who refused to see the writing on the wall. I happen to believe the demonstrations will continue, people will continue to push for his ouster and eventually will succeed.

ROSEMARY HOLLIS, PROFESSOR OF MIDDLE EAST POLICY STUDIES, CITY UNVERSITY LONDON

This is simply not enough. A critical turning point was reached in the last two days and I don’t see Mubarak can hang on without there being serious trouble now.

The demonstrators are very disappointed and there will be violence. This poses a real dilemma for the army. Are they going to allow the demonstrators to escalate their demonstrations so that they push the point that Mubarak has got to go, and that means the army definitely does split with Mubarak?.

JOHN SFAKIANAKIS, ECONOMIST, BANQUE SAUDI FRANSI

Markets are going to see this and run away.

It just makes it more confusing and unpredictable than ever before. Unpredictability is the thing foreign investors hate, along with political instability, and this is really the epitome of both of theses elements.

I think international investors will brace for the worst, because they will now begin to expect a severe deterioration of the political situation, which means the currency is going get pounded, the stock market will get pounded, and they will leave Egypt en masse.

There seems to be a gap between what society wants and what the president is delivering, and the two together are a destructive mix, and investors would not to see nor participate in a country that has this.

ALANOUD AL SHAREK, SENIOR FELLOW, REGIONAL POLITICS, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES-MIDDLE EAST

He doesn’t seem to understand the magnitude of what is happening in Egypt.

At this point I don’t think it will suffice. He still seems to think he is the top patriarch and custodian of the Egyptian people. He doesn’t realise that there is a genuine act of resistance taking place. He has performed quite a sleight of hand. He has transferred authority to Omar Suleiman while somehow retaining his position as ruler.

It’s a very strange manoeuvre. And he sheds responsibility for any of the negative things that have happened."

MATT SMITH, ANALYST, SUMMIT ENERGY, LOUISVILLE, KY:

We’re putting a premium back on oil prices because of continued uncertainty in Egypt. Many people expected Mubarak to resign and he didn’t.

RICHARD ILCZYSZYN, SENIOR MARKET STRATEGIST AT LIND-WALDOCK IN CHICAGO:

It was a bit of a surprise for us and the market. Oil markets are going to respond to the upside. It is now a lingering debate. Any instability in the Middle East means higher prices in oil.

BILL O’GRADY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI:

Oil and equities market are choppy after the non-announcement by President Mubarak. We don’t know what to do with this announcement. I think we may be on the cusp of a coup d’etat since the military and the civilians are not on the same page as the government.

The younger military really want to see this guy go and they are allied with the protesters. The older military don’t want to give up power just yet and want to play a role in the orderly transition of power. This is playing out a lot like the situation with Anwar Sadat.

This has got to have the Saudis all hacked off, since the U.S. Administration is not likely to do anything except dump a guy when sentiment goes against him. The Saudis are likely seeing a replay of Jimmy Carter and they don’t like it.

PETER BEUTEL, PRESIDENT, CAMERON HANOVER, NEW CANAAN, CONNECTICUT:

His speech did not do anything to assuage those who are in opposition to him. Analysts expect the protests to continue.

The great fear of the oil market is that violence and protests which seem likely to intensify after the speech may be transferred to other parts of the oil rich Middle East."

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO

By falling far short of what millions of Egyptians are looking for, the president’s speech will fuel enormous popular anger.

Given the intense disappointment with the speech in Egypt, the country has entered this evening an ominous period of extreme tension and danger that can only be resolved by credible regime change that the majority of Egyptians can buy into." (Reporting by Reuters correspondents; Compiled by World Desk) (London World Desk 44 (0) 207 542 2590)